Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the United States threatening to leave NATO, how global markets are reacting to the energy crisis, and a joint Japan-France effort to bolster critical mineral cooperation.
A ‘Paper Tiger’ Alliance?
U.S. President Donald Trump is considering trying to pull the United States out of NATO over its members’ unwillingness to join the Iran war. “I was never swayed by NATO,” Trump told the Telegraph on Wednesday. He called the alliance a “paper tiger” for refusing to help U.S. forces reopen the Strait of Hormuz and said that U.S. membership is now “beyond reconsideration.”
This is not the first time that Trump has lashed out at U.S. allies over the Iran war. On Tuesday, he warned countries struggling to acquire jet fuel due to the ongoing energy crisis, such as the United Kingdom, that they’ll “have to start learning how to fight for yourself.” He added that “the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.” U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had a similar message, declining on Tuesday to reaffirm Washington’s commitment to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause.
Trump is expected to state that he is considering leaving NATO during a nationwide address on the Iran war at 9 p.m. local time in Washington. However, under U.S. law, the president does not have the unilateral authority to do this. In 2023, Congress approved legislation that prevents any U.S. president from “suspending, terminating, denouncing, or withdrawing” from NATO without an act of Congress or a resolution passed by two-thirds of the Senate. Then-Sen. Marco Rubio (who now serves as Trump’s secretary of state) co-sponsored the bill, which then-President Joe Biden signed into law as a clause in that year’s National Defense Authorization Act.
“NATO serves as an essential military alliance that protects shared national interests and enhances America’s international presence. Any decision to leave the alliance should be rigorously debated and considered by the U.S. Congress with the input of the American people,” Rubio said when he introduced the bill.
Rubio appeared to refute his own views late Tuesday, telling Fox News that “ultimately, that’s a decision for the president to make.” He acknowledged that he’d been “one of the strongest defenders of NATO” during his time in Congress, but he said that “after this conflict is concluded … we’re going to have to reexamine the value of NATO and that alliance for our country.”
Several NATO members have refused to get directly involved in the Iran war, with some going so far as to prevent U.S. forces from using their bases to attack Iran—a fact that Rubio specifically cited in his comments on Tuesday.
“This is not our war, and we’re not going to get dragged into it,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday. He stressed that “NATO is the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen” and warned that London’s increasingly volatile relationship with Washington could force the United Kingdom to prioritize closer ties with the rest of Europe.
Such rebukes have not stopped Trump from touting the U.S. military’s successes. A White House official told the Daily Wire on Wednesday that Trump is expected to give an “operational update on the progress of Operation Epic Fury, which is meeting or exceeding all of its benchmarks,” during his 9 p.m. address. This comes despite a lack of evidence that U.S. or Israeli forces have destroyed Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade fuel.
During the address, Trump is also expected to reiterate his prediction of a two- to three-week timeline to end the war. On Wednesday, Trump claimed that Tehran had “just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!” He added that the United States will consider this offer “when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!”
Yet, Iranian officials have denied Trump’s claim. “The Strait of Hormuz will certainly reopen, but not for you,” Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, wrote on X.
Tehran’s comment came as Iran and its Lebanese proxy group Hezbollah launched what Israeli media said was the biggest combined missile attack on Israel since the war began on Feb. 28. The attack occurred in concurrence with the first night of the Jewish holiday of Passover.
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What We’re Following
Oil and gas pressures. Financial markets rallied on Wednesday ahead of Trump’s 9 p.m. address while oil futures fell, with Brent crude trading at around $101 a barrel by Wednesday afternoon. The shifts reflected investors’ hope that the Iran war—and the global energy crisis that it has caused—could wind down soon, based on reports that both Washington and Tehran may be seeking an off-ramp.
There also seems to be some movement among countries besides the United States and Israel to try to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Arab officials told the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday that the United Arab Emirates is preparing to help Washington reopen the strategic waterway by force, including by lobbying for the United Nations Security Council to issue a resolution that would authorize such action. The United Kingdom is also reportedly convening a virtual meeting of U.S. allies in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, as well as Canada, to discuss diplomatic ways to push Tehran to reopen the strait.
Still, many nations are bracing for the energy crunch to continue. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese encouraged residents to take public transit in a rare televised address on Wednesday. “The economic shocks caused by this war will be with us for months,” Albanese said, adding that Australians should “do their bit” to ease pressure on the country’s fuel supplies. The European Commission also asked its members this week to consider reducing their oil and gas use.
Rare-earths road map. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hosted French President Emmanuel Macron in Tokyo on Wednesday, during which the two leaders agreed to bolster collaboration on critical minerals. Specifically, they announced plans for Tokyo’s Iwatani gas firm and state-owned Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security to invest in a rare-earths refining project in southern France. Operations are expected to begin later this year.
The deal is particularly vital for Japan, which is still reeling from China’s decision in February to prohibit dual-use exports to 20 Japanese entities that Beijing claims are supplying Japan’s military. “We cannot rely solely on specific countries, especially China,” French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said.
The two leaders also agreed on Wednesday to strengthen defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, called for an immediate cease-fire in the Middle East, and prepared to sign off on 12 joint space-related projects that include debris removal and rocket launches.
“Amid an increasingly severe international security environment, cooperation with like-minded countries has never been more important for the peace and prosperity of our nations and the region,” Takaichi said.
Moscow’s battlefield gains. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Wednesday that its forces have taken full control of Ukraine’s Luhansk region, pushing Moscow a step closer to fully seizing the coveted Donbas area; Luhansk is one of two regions (alongside Donetsk) that makes up the Donbas. Russian forces captured more than 99 percent of Luhansk following Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022. This meant that only a sliver of the territory was left for Russia to take.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that Kyiv should have withdrawn its forces from the Donbas area “yesterday” to end what Moscow calls the “hot phase” of the war, and he reiterated that Ukraine must relinquish control of the entire region. Kyiv has repeatedly dismissed such demands, and on Wednesday, a Ukrainian military spokesperson denied Russia’s latest advances, telling Reuters that no battlefield changes have been made in the area in the past six months.
Meanwhile, a Russian military transport plane crashed in southern Crimea on Tuesday, killing all 29 people on board. Moscow’s Defense Ministry said the aircraft—a Soviet-designed Antonov An-26 that is often used to carry cargo and personnel—appeared to have no sign of external damage when it crashed into a cliff, suggesting that the plane was not hit by a drone or missile. Instead, investigators said on Wednesday that a technical malfunction appears to have caused the incident.
Odds and Ends
They say the third time’s the charm! After two attempts to create an Asia edition of the Eurovision Song Contest, the competition’s organizers announced on Tuesday that an Asia offshoot will finally broadcast in Bangkok on Nov. 14. Ten countries have agreed to participate: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. Each nation will hold a televised contest to determine who advances to the final round, and the winner will get the chance to sing at the main Eurovision event.
