Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Pakistan deploys troops to Saudi Arabia per their mutual defense pact, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits the United Arab Emirates amid growing ties, and Nepal’s new government opens an investigation into a short-lived minister.
Pakistan Deploys Troops to Saudi Arabia
On Monday, Reuters reported that Pakistan had deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia as part of the mutual defense pact reached between the two countries last year. Part of this deployment was reported last month following a statement from the Saudi Defense Ministry, though with fewer specifics.
The development amplifies Pakistan’s diplomatic balancing act in the Middle East as it aims to play a prominent mediation role in the Iran war. To succeed, Islamabad must maintain Tehran’s trust as a neutral and credible intermediary, even as its ties with Riyadh, a major rival of Iran, grow deeper.
It may seem surprising that Pakistan could find any balance in its relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia. But over nearly a decade, Pakistan has invested effort in projecting itself as a neutral player in the rivalry. A key turning point came in 2017, when Qamar Javed Bajwa became the first Pakistani Army chief to visit Iran in two decades.
Imran Khan, who became prime minister the next year, pushed for better relations with Tehran, too, going as far as saying that Pakistan should “become like” Iran. The Iranian-Saudi rapprochement deal gave Pakistan additional diplomatic space to explore deepening its ties with Iran.
Saudi Arabia has remained a critical Pakistani partner, despite some bumps in recent years, from its growing ties with India to a spat over Riyadh’s position on Kashmir. Other developments, including last year’s India-Pakistan conflict, give Islamabad added incentives to consolidate its defense alliance with Riyadh.
Still, the decision to send so many troops and arms to Saudi Arabia at such a delicate moment in the Iran war is striking. There are a few likely explanations.
One is Pakistan’s need to signal to Saudi Arabia its commitment to the defense pact. Though Islamabad has condemned Iranian attacks on Saudi territory, it hasn’t threatened to invoke the pact. (In Islamabad’s defense, Saudi responses to Taliban attacks on Pakistani forces on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in recent months have also been muted.)
Pakistan also needs to ensure continued economic assistance from Saudi Arabia—especially since Pakistani ties with the United Arab Emirates have taken a dive in recent months. Just a few days after news emerged about the Pakistani military deployments to Saudi Arabia last month, Islamabad announced a fresh $3 billion in assistance from Riyadh.
Pakistani officials have described the deployment to Saudi Arabia as a form of deterrence and emphasized that its military assets are “not there to attack anyone.” Pakistani troops, they say, are to be used in training and advisory roles. Such a posture is clearly meant to show Iran that these military moves should not be viewed as provocative.
The deployment all amounts to a gamble. If the tenuous U.S.-Iran cease-fire ends, the war resumes, and more Iranian strikes hit Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will face mounting pressure for its military assets in the country to play a more kinetic role. Despite its commitment to the defense pact, Islamabad would prefer not to invoke it—it doesn’t want to be dragged into the war.
For Pakistan, the best outcome is an end to the Iran war. That would ease its security concerns and reduce the pressure that it feels as it walks the tightrope between Iran and its Arab rivals.
What We’re Following
Modi visits the UAE. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Abu Dhabi last Friday and met United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The trip came a few weeks after Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited the UAE. Modi’s office released a detailed and effusive statement about the visit and the bilateral partnership.
Indeed, the partnership is one of India’s fastest-growing relationships in the Middle East, arguably eclipsed only by its rapidly deepening ties with Israel. Though India-UAE ties have intensified in the past decade, the relationship has largely revolved around energy and other economic cooperation.
Doval’s visit, along with pledges that the two countries made in January to pursue a strategic defense partnership, amplify how it is fast becoming a security-focused friendship, too. Though New Delhi’s moves in Abu Dhabi are part of a broader effort to expand ties in the Middle East, they are also opportunistic: Pakistan’s worsening ties with the UAE provide India with an opening.
Nepal opens probe of former minister. Nepal’s new reformist government has formed a committee that will investigate public allegations against Sudan Gurung, who served as home minister for just a few weeks before resigning last month. Media reports have raised concerns about Gurung’s past banking transactions and investments.
Gurung hasn’t been formally accused of any improprieties, but he said he would step down to avoid any conflict of interest. The case is an important test for Prime Minister Balendra Shah’s government, which ran on a pledge to expunge corruption. Gurung himself is a prominent anti-corruption advocate and a leader in the protests that ousted the last government in September.
Shah’s new administration will want to move quickly to show that it won’t spare one of its own when it comes to its commitment to investigate and root out graft.
Cricket spat in Bangladesh. A rare spat erupted during a cricket match between Bangladesh and Pakistan in Sylhet, Bangladesh, on Tuesday. Pakistani batter Muhammad Rizwan appeared to be distracted by something in his line of vision, leading the Bangladeshi wicketkeeper, Litton Das, to become impatient.
Das asked Rizwan what he was doing and told him to “focus on your batting here.” Rizwan replied sharply, “Is that your concern?” The cricket commentariat praised Rizwan for maintaining his composure, while blaming Das—one of Bangladesh’s biggest stars—for making much ado about nothing.
Microphones later picked up Bangladeshi players taunting Rizwan. Pakistani cricket fans may have hoped that this would all fire up their national team, which has suffered a bad drought in recent months. But Bangladesh won the match, completing a series sweep of Pakistan—for the first time for Bangladesh on its home soil.
FP’s Most Read This Week
Under the Radar
Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman made a formal request to China this month that likely raised eyebrows in India: He invited Chinese support for a restoration project along the Teesta River in Bangladesh.
Like many waterways in South Asia, the Teesta is running dry, affecting fishermen and others with water-dependent livelihoods. China has previously shown interest in helping out. But there wasn’t an official request until this month, soon after Bangladesh’s foreign minister visited Beijing.
The envisioned project reportedly entails dredging and rehabilitating more than 60 miles of waterways at an estimated cost of around $1 billion. China is one of the few countries in the wider region with the financial and technical resources to carry out the task.
However, the Teesta is a transboundary river that starts in India and flows downstream to Bangladesh via a region near the strategic Siliguri Corridor—a thin strip of land that offers the only overland route from India’s mainland to its northeast. The Teesta has long been a tension point for Bangladesh and India, which have yet to ink a deal to jointly manage the river.
Any Chinese work on the river would take place downstream, meaning that it wouldn’t directly affect India. But given the sensitivities around the river and its strategic location—not to mention New Delhi’s strategic competition with Beijing—it won’t go unnoticed by Indian officials.
