LAS VEGAS — Sporting Lisbon turned up the Champions League heat on the Arctic Minnows.
The Norwegian club Bodø/Glimt, from a small fishing village on the chilly side of the Arctic Circle, could only last so long, so far out over its skis.
Excellent CBS Sports play-by-play announcer Chris Wittyngham called it something like “Buddha,” lexicon we adopt gladly.
“Counter-punchers supreme,” he called Buddha, which beat Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Serie A leader Inter Milan twice in the run-up to its round-of-16, two-leg series against Sporting.
When the competition started in late August, Buddha’s CL title odds were 500-to-1 at the Westgate SuperBook, 1,000-1 at Circa Sports.
Sweet profits could have been extracted along the way. For instance, Buddha was +830 to defeat Inter in their second leg; the Norwegians won 2-1 before 70,441 at the hallowed San Siro in Milan.
When it beat Sporting 3-0 before 7,971 inside its Aspmyra Stadion on March 11, Buddha’s title odds were 150-1.
Its balloon popped in the second leg, when Sporting popped in four goals in the final 30 minutes of regulation and 30 of extra time. Sporting won 5-3.
Sporting attacker Pedro “Pote” Gonçalves, who missed that first match, made a magnificent difference in the second.
Buddha parked the bus to focus on defense, which backfired spectacularly. Sporting had huge advantages in corners (16-4) and shots (38-9), advancing to play Arsenal.
Bye, bye, Arctic Minnows.
“We did not play the game, we played the occasion,” Buddha gaffer Kjetil Knutsen told the BBC, “and it became far too big for us.”
No rest
Against Euro titans FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, AC Milan and Inter Milan and defending champ Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), squads like Buddha get squished, typically early.
Buddha, though, became the northernmost team to reach such a late CL stage.
Plus, it became the first non-Big Five side to beat four Big Fives in a row since Johann Cruyff and Ajax Amsterdam in 1971-72.
England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain comprise the Big Five.
Kudos to Knutsen, too, for reportedly spurning advances from other squads, including Celtic.
To me, the CL is the planet’s premier sporting event. The cream from Europe’s top-flight divisions qualify for the following season’s CL, which can be a nine-month trek. In late summer, 82 squads from 53 associations began the battle.
Mix that in with a player’s domestic regular-season and tournament (sometimes two, as in England) responsibilities and national-side duties, and rest is rare for elite figures.
For example, Man City’s star Norwegian striker, Erling Haaland, 25, has logged 51 matches this season, with eight more coming in the Premier League plus World Cup fixtures.
Whiffed on PSG
With plenty of work and handicapping projects, I got distracted from last season’s CL. Unfortunate, since how I diagnose the Big Five would have led to investing in PSG, and profit.
The stellar resource FBRef produces Big Five pages, where I highlight GA90 (goals plus assists over 90 minutes) and opponents’ GA90 figures for respective offensive and defensive aggression barometers.
I would have had PSG circled, since its GA90 (4.65) rated second to Bayern Munich’s (4.76).
At some middle stage, a decent PSG futures ducat would have been obtained. In the quarters, with an eye on the future, PSG received a break by getting placed on the other side of the bracket from Munich.
That would have resulted in more positions with PSG, which eliminated Aston Villa. And Inter Milan dumped Munich, extra critical since the finale would be staged in Munich, to ease PSG’s path.
PSG beat Arsenal in their two-leg semifinal, where Inter eliminated Barcelona.
The Parisians then slammed Inter 5-0 for its first Champions League crown.
Kane is able
With Europe’s most lethal spearhead of Harry Kane, Luis Diaz and Michael Olise, Bayern Munich currently tops the Big Five GA90 with a sterling 6.11. Then comes Barcelona (4.62), PSG (3.85) and Inter (3.70).
(I prize key team figures to eliminate bias and opinion. Since FBRef started compiling stats in 1995-96, this Bayern side is the only one with a GA90 rating in the sixes.)
In differential, mixing in defensive GA90, it’s Munich (3.92), PSG (2.85), Inter (2.64) and Barça (2.63).
This time around, PSG’s Bayern-avoidance luck evaporated as it plays Liverpool on the same side of the bracket as Real Madrid-Bayern Munich.
The other side is Barcelona-Atletico Madrid and Sporting Lisbon-Arsenal.
I grabbed a 12-1 title ticket on Munich in September.
Die Roten has outscored foes 39-12 in its current 10-0-2 stretch, so Monday I invested more, at +325.
I also got a +750 title position on Real Madrid.
Bianco bits
This season’s May 30 title venue is Budapest, and Carmine Bianco favors PSG to -repeat, giving it a semifinal edge over -Munich.
WagerTalk’s ace Toronto-based soccer ’capper, Bianco believes pressure is affecting Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta.
“Winning the English Premier League is Arteta’s goal,” Bianco said, “more so than the CL, as weird as that sounds.”
CL champion squads earn €25 million, runners-up €18.5 million.
Bianco already had a +700 PSG title ticket, and he nabbed +550 last weekend. He said Atletico, 20-1 at DraftKings, has underdog value.
“They can defend,” he said, “and really don’t fear any side.”
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Title odds
Odds Team
+225 Arsenal
+340 Bayern Munich
+500 Barcelona
+600 PSG
+900 Real Madrid
12-1 Liverpool
18-1 Atlético Madrid
65-1 Sporting Lisbon
Source: Circa Sports
