Philippines Flood Corruption Scandal Engulfs President Bongbong Marcos

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: The Philippine president embroiled in expanding corruption scandal, Thailand’s Thaksin dynasty faces lawfare, and Malaysia to ban teens from social media.

Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is under serious pressure.

A wave of protests over corruption in flood control projects has piled pressure on his government.

Cabinet ministers have resigned. And further rallies, which the Catholic Church is throwing its weight behind, are planned for Nov. 30.

The turmoil has sparked speculation about Marcos being unseated via impeachment or coup.

For now, this possibility probably shouldn’t be taken too seriously.

The military and leading politicians have denied considering such options. And there is barely a modern Filipino president who hasn’t at some time or other been subject to such rumors or faced failed attempts.

Plus, the last time a president was forced to leave office early was in 2001, when Joseph Estrada resigned amid mass protests over corruption and impeachment attempts.

The most recent attempt at a coup, meanwhile, was a damp squib in 2007 that lasted only a few hours.

Still, there’s no denying the government is creaking.

On Nov. 18, two senior cabinet ministers—the executive secretary, who serves as the president’s right hand, and the secretary for budget and management—both left the government.

These departures follow that of Martin Romualdez, a cousin of Bongbong’s, who resigned his position as speaker of the House of Representatives in September amid accusations that he had been involved in the flood projects graft.

Marcos himself is also under fire.

The president has been publicly accused of pocketing 25 billion pesos’ ($425 million) worth of misappropriated funds by Zaldy Co, a former representative and onetime ally of Marcos with an outstanding arrest warrant over his own alleged role in the scandal.

While speaking at an anti-corruption rally on Nov. 17, Marcos’s estranged sister, Sen. Imee Marcos, accused him of being addicted to cocaine.

Sen. Marcos said this left him unable to lead and at the mercy of corrupt “minions.” (Representatives of President Marcos have denied both charges.)

These claims are not new. Former President Rodrigo Duterte previously raised questions about the 2025 budget and also alleged Marcos was a drug addict.

Marcos has pushed back, denying the charges and going after the Duterte clan.

Allies of his attempted to impeach Sara Duterte, Rodrigo’s daughter who serves as vice president.

And, in March, Filipino police arrested Rodrigo Duterte and handed him over to the International Criminal Court over allegations of extrajudicial killings that took place during the “war on drugs” he led as president.

What distinguishes the current turn of events from previous elite feuding is the growing popular protests helping to propel the flood scandal forward.

Filipinos sick of the rampant graft that characterizes national politics are making their voices heard—echoing other protests that have shaken and toppled governments across the world.

Successive typhoons ravaging the country have added saliency to the issue of flood control infrastructure corruption.

Notably, attempts by the Dutertes to position themselves at the head of this insurgency have yet to come off.

Imee Marcos, a Duterte ally, was allowed to address the crowd at the protests earlier this month.

But Sara Duterte was not present, and pro-Duterte groups were not allowed to join the main protests.

To gauge popular anger, watch the protests on Nov. 30.

Mid-November’s protests saw an impressive 650,000 people gathered in Manila. But they were also organized by Iglesia ni Cristo—an unusual local church known to keep a tight grip over its flock of 3 million congregants.

The irony is that it was Marcos who first helped propel this issue to prominence.

Faced with dropping poll numbers following Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest and smarting from a poor midterm elections performance, he made fighting flood infrastructure corruption a signature issue.

Unfortunately for him, Filipinos are capable of asking basic questions like, “Weren’t you president when the 2025 budget got approved?”

Philippines tariff exemptions. On Nov. 18, the Philippines announced it had secured exemptions to the United States’ 19 percent tariff for a wide range of agricultural products including coconuts, tropical fruits, and frozen tuna.

The Philippines already had exemptions on other agricultural products like coffee, cacao, and beef. The estimated value of these exemptions totals $1 billion, according to the Philippine Department of Trade.

Under the radar, the Philippines has also benefited from exemptions worth an estimated $5.8 billion on industrial goods—including semiconductors.

This means about half of Philippine exports to the U.S. are tariff-free.

The Philippine government is taking this as vindication of its previously criticized management of the tariff issue.

However, as the world has learned, a lot can be concealed under the headline tariff.

Filipino negotiators are now aiming for further exemptions for garments and furniture.

Thaksin on the ropes. Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, already serving a one-year jail term for corruption, has faced further legal setbacks.

On Nov. 17, courts ruled against the former prime minister in a tax case, ordering him to pay 17.6 billion baht ($543 million) in back taxes and fines.

There is also a push by the government to appeal the lèse-majesté case that Shinawatra won in August.

With elections due soon, this looks like a concerted effort to knock out the power of the Shinawatra dynasty and its party, Pheu Thai.

Still, Shinawatra’s family has been campaigning for his release on parole.

Both cases are politically contentious.

Claims of corruption and impropriety in relation to the tax case formed an important part of the run-up to the 2006 coup that forced Thaksin from power.

And lèse-majesté cases have long been criticized as tools to punish critics of Thailand’s conservative elite.

Malaysia social media ban. Malaysia will ban individuals under the age of 16 from signing up for social media starting in 2026, the government announced on Nov. 23.

The government had previously planned to only ban children under 13 but has decided to expand the scope.

The law will require social media companies to implement identity verification to enforce the age requirement. A comprehensive list of platforms affected has yet to be released.

The government has argued the ban is necessary for child safety to protect underage persons from cyberbullying, financial scams, and child sexual abuse.

A recent wave of public concern about bullying and violence in schools may have strengthened the push.

An unspoken concern may also be irritation at Malaysian teenagers increasingly speaking Indonesian-inflected Malay. The two languages are very close, and many Malaysians consume content from their neighbor.

The region is leading the charge on this front.

In Australia, social media platforms will deactivate the accounts of registered users under the age of 16 next month. As the first country in the world to implement such a law, it is being watched by other governments.

Indonesia is also mulling age requirements for social media.

Vietnam floods again. At least 90 people have died and 12 are missing in Vietnam in the latest wave of floods, which damaged 186,000 homes.

Vietnam has been repeatedly battered by extreme weather this year. The government estimates natural disasters have inflicted $2 billion in damage between January and October 2025.

Burhanuddin Muhtadi, one of Indonesia’s leading pollsters, examines how President Prabowo Subianto saw his popularity rebound following mass protests, and whether this will last, in Fulcrum.

Southeast Asia’s dependence on coal has grown over the last decade, and Sudarshan Varadhan in Reuters examines why.

Southeast Asia seems to be splitting in two directions, with some economies shrugging off tariffs while others struggle.

With third-quarter growth now published for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN’s) six largest economies, a divide can be observed between those in the former camp—Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam—and Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines in the latter.

At a headline year-on-year level, all six look to be doing OK.

But look at growth quarter by quarter (except for Vietnam, which doesn’t publish this information), and a different picture emerges.

The Philippines and Indonesia have seen growth slow sharply, and Thailand slowed down too.

What’s causing this?

Those doing well have good all-around performances with better-than-expected exports and domestic consumption. As for the others, they are all suffering from weak domestic consumption.

There are also idiosyncratic factors. Thailand, for example, has seen a slowdown in exports and tourism.

What is interesting is that exposure to U.S. tariffs is not a determining factor, contrary to what many might have expected.

Vietnam, for whom the U.S. accounted for 28 percent of its exports in 2023—the highest of the six countries—is the best performer. This, despite having a tariff rate of 20 percent, a percentage point higher than the 19 percent enjoyed by most other ASEAN nations.

To make a broad diagnosis, political factors are important.

Thailand has seen a war and a prime minister toppled. Indonesia has scared investors with an unpredictable fiscal policy. In the Philippines, the huge ongoing corruption scandal has been blamed for denting confidence.

The other three, however, offer investors a friendlier and more predictable atmosphere.

Vietnam may be an exception, with Communist Party General Secretary To Lam aggressively reorganizing and consolidating power. For now, though, investors are calculating this regime works out in their favor.