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As Washington\u2019s top trading partners mull retaliatory measures against U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s expanding and increasingly aggressive trade war, American farmers are all but certain to be caught in the middle.\u00a0<\/p>\n
On April 2, Trump unveiled the harshest U.S. tariffs<\/a> in nearly a century<\/a> on friends and foes alike. It was a stunning move that upended markets<\/a> and sent shockwaves through the more than 180 countries and territories<\/a> targeted. Starting on April 5, the White House will impose tariffs on much of the world,<\/a>\u00a0ranging from 10 percent to as much as 50 percent<\/a>, with some of the steepest measures concentrated in Asia. China, for example, will now face an additional 34 percent tariff, effectively boosting the value of total average U.S. tariffs on the country to more than 70 percent<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n As Washington\u2019s top trading partners mull retaliatory measures against U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s expanding and increasingly aggressive trade war, American farmers are all but certain to be caught in the middle.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n On April 2, Trump unveiled the <\/span>harshest U.S. tariffs<\/span><\/a> in <\/span>nearly a century<\/span><\/a> on friends and foes alike. It was a stunning move that <\/span>upended markets<\/span><\/a> and sent shockwaves through the <\/span>more than 180 countries and territories<\/span><\/a> targeted. Starting on April 5, the White House will impose tariffs on <\/span>much of the world,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ranging from 10 percent to as much as <\/span>50 percent<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>with some of the steepest measures concentrated in Asia. China, for example, will now face an additional 34 percent tariff, effectively boosting the value of total average U.S. tariffs on the country to more than <\/span>70 percent<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n One of the big questions now looming is whether Washington\u2019s top trading partners will target the U.S. agricultural sector when they strike back. Much of the concern revolves around Beijing, which is one of the world\u2019s biggest importers of agricultural goods; in 2023, it was the <\/span>top market for U.S. agricultural exports<\/span><\/a>, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe real issue now will be how do countries like China respond, and some of the really big markets for agricultural commodities,\u201d said Joseph Glauber, a former chief economist at the USDA who is now at the International Food Policy Research Institute.<\/span><\/p>\n China didn\u2019t wait long to retaliate. Many of the U.S. agricultural sector\u2019s worst fears were confirmed on April 4, when Beijing announced that it would match Trump\u2019s policy<\/a> with its own 34 percent tariffs on all imports from the United States\u2014measures that will deal a crushing blow to American farmers.<\/p>\n \u201cThis practice of the US is not in line with international trade rules, seriously undermines China\u2019s legitimate rights and interests, and is a typical unilateral bullying practice,\u201d the Chinese Finance Ministry said<\/a> in a statement.<\/p>\n And others may soon follow. Even before Trump\u2019s April 2 announcement, key trading partners were retaliating against Trump\u2019s trade policy by targeting the U.S. agricultural sector\u2014<\/span>potentially laying the groundwork for a sharper response now. The European Union, China, and Canada all <\/span>fired back<\/span><\/a> against his earlier measures by imposing levies on U.S. agricultural products, with Beijing in particular unveiling 10 to 15 percent tariffs on wheat, chicken, soybeans, corn, pork, and beef.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n American farmers, who overwhelmingly backed Trump in the recent U.S. presidential election, have been through this before. During Trump\u2019s first term in office, his trade war with China cost the sector more than <\/span>$27 billion<\/span><\/a> in lost agricultural exports between 2018 and 2019 and pushed <\/span>longtime buyers<\/a> to<\/span>\u00a0seek alternative suppliers, such as Brazil. The fallout was so painful that the first Trump administration ultimately shelled out a <\/span>$28 billion bailout<\/span><\/a>\u00a0to farmers to help cushion the blow.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n But Trump\u2019s latest round of tariffs, which are bigger in scale and scope than before, risk injecting even more pain into the U.S. agricultural sector.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cOne thing is certain: American family farmers and ranchers will bear the brunt of this global trade war,\u201d Rob Larew, president of National Farmers Union, said in a <\/span>statement<\/span><\/a>. \u201cThe economic strain and uncertainty that farmers face have reached a breaking point.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Those sentiments were echoed by Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation\u2014the country\u2019s largest general farm organization<\/a>\u2014who <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> in a statement that \u201cincreased tariffs threaten the economic sustainability of farmers who have lost money on most major crops for the past three years.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cTariffs will drive up the cost of critical supplies, and retaliatory tariffs will make American-grown products more expensive globally,\u201d said Duvall, who noted that exports contribute to more than 20 percent of farm income. \u201cThe combination not only threatens farmers\u2019 competitiveness in the short term, but it may cause long-term damage by leading to losses in market share.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n And it\u2019s not just Trump\u2019s most recent announcement or the looming retaliatory tariffs that spell trouble for farmers. Another key problem is the chaotic nature of Trump\u2019s on-again, off-again threats, which has complicated farmers\u2019 efforts to plan for the future, experts said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s hard to think about long-term investment and management decisions when you have this much uncertainty,\u201d said Christopher Wolf, an agricultural economist at Cornell University.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Trump has insisted that agricultural imports harm farmers, although he has <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> that there \u201cmay be a little bit of an adjustment period\u201d and urged farmers to \u201cbear with me.\u201d But ahead of his announcement, some Republican senators were already <\/span>warning<\/span><\/a> that the president\u2019s penchant for tariffs could harm the already vulnerable agricultural sector.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cAnyone who says there may be a little bit of pain before we get things right needs to talk to my farmers, who are one crop away from bankruptcy,\u201d Sen. Thom Tillis recently <\/span>told CNN<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThey don\u2019t have time, so we\u2019ve got to be crisp on this implementation,\u201d he added. \u201cOtherwise, we could do damage that is irreparable to farmers.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Trump is reportedly now mulling a new round of <\/span>emergency aid<\/span><\/a> for farmers, according to the New York Times<\/em>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n But even if Washington does throw farmers another financial lifeline, there would likely still be lasting damage to the industry. After Trump\u2019s last trade war, the U.S. agricultural sector lost considerable market share in soybean sales to <\/span>Brazil<\/span><\/a>, which reverberates to this day.<\/span><\/p>\n