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After small military gains<\/a> last year, Russia is now not only spinning its wheels in Ukraine but is actually worse off than before, pummeled by a combination of battlefield losses and economic hardship.<\/p>\n As it struggles on the battlefield, some experts warn that Russia may seek to regain the initiative by leaning into some of its most provocative tactics, such as sabotage in Europe and drone incursions into NATO territory.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n After small military gains<\/a> last year, Russia is now not only spinning its wheels in Ukraine but is actually worse off than before, pummeled by a combination of battlefield losses and economic hardship.<\/p>\n As it struggles on the battlefield, some experts warn that Russia may seek to regain the initiative by leaning into some of its most provocative tactics, such as sabotage in Europe and drone incursions into NATO territory.<\/p>\n On the front line, Ukraine is killing more Russians than Moscow can recruit. In May, Ukraine\u2019s defense ministry counted<\/a> 35,200 dead or seriously wounded Russians for the month of April based on battlefield video. That\u2019s about as many as Russia recruits<\/a> in a given month under a costly recruitment program that cannot be easily expanded without tough political choices. In recent months, Ukraine has also begun choking<\/a> off Russian logistics through the use of new, intermediate-range explosive drones that prowl deep behind Russian lines.<\/p>\n Russia\u2019s economy and society are also showing signs of stress. Weighed down by military spending, Ukrainian strikes on energy, and the diversion of the labor force into the military or defense industry, Russia\u2019s economy is stagnating<\/a>, raising the possibility of further centralization<\/a> of the economy. An attempt to more tightly control<\/a> the internet, meanwhile, has left many Russians angrier than they have been in years.<\/p>\n Russia has gained some economic<\/a> relief thanks to higher energy sales on the back of the Iran war. But the war has also distracted<\/a> the United States from its role as mediator between Ukraine and Russia, with Russia now left frustrated about the lack of progress<\/a>.<\/p>\n This stagnation, in turn, is pushing the Russians to think about ways they can shift the balance in their favor, said Andrew Peek, a former senior director for European and Russian affairs at the Trump administration\u2019s National Security Council: \u201cThey\u2019re looking for ways they can regain escalatory initiative, if not the war initiative.\u201d<\/p>\n Some signs suggest<\/span> Russia may already be trying to seek new ways to intimidate. On June 2, Russia unleashed<\/a> a massive attack on Kyiv, apparently seeking to increase fear by prominently telegraphing the attack and then hitting the Podilskyi district of the city, a historic neighborhood that is not typically targeted.<\/p>\n It\u2019s unclear to what extent this may be part of a new trend of strikes. In an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested<\/a> Russia might be planning to lean more on ballistic missiles, writing, \u201cWe also know that you hope ballistic missiles will achieve for you what everything else has failed to achieve.\u201d Ballistic missiles are one of the few weapons Moscow possesses that Ukraine cannot easily shoot down, thanks to a lack of interceptors<\/a>.<\/p>\n In a separate move, on May 29, a Russian attack drone slammed<\/a> into a Romanian building near that country\u2019s border with Ukraine, injuring two people and partially destroying an apartment. The drone was part of a wider attack of 43 Russian drones, which are frequently used to strike grain-exporting ports<\/a> along the Ukrainian-Romanian border.<\/p>\n It is uncertain so far whether the strike was intentional, although Russia has previously<\/a> flown unarmed drones through Poland. \u201cI think it\u2019s probable that they think that they\u2019re indicating to Europe that this could get worse,\u201d said Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<\/p>\n Side by side with military escalation, Russia has also seemingly attempted a renewed charm offensive against the United States and Europe. Earlier this month, right-wing commentator Candace Owens as well as the man overseeing<\/a> U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s ballroom, Rodney Mims Cook Jr., went to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, a marquee economic forum organized<\/a> by the Russian government\u2019s most senior members.<\/p>\n Owens has since posted multiple glowing accounts<\/a> of Russia, getting an approving<\/a> reaction from former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene: \u201cWe should be friends, allies, and trading partners with Russia,\u201d Greene wrote.<\/p>\n While in St. Petersburg, Cook spoke at a roundtable and conveyed<\/a> a \u201cgood hello\u201d from Trump to Putin. A White House spokesperson referred Foreign Policy<\/em> to the State Department when asked if Cook was attending the conference as Trump\u2019s representative, as described<\/a> by forum organizers. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told<\/a> Congress that he was \u201cnot aware\u201d of an official U.S. delegation.<\/p>\n British activist Tommy Robinson<\/a> and social media influencers Andrew and Tristan<\/a> Tate also separately visited Russia in June. They gave similar rationales for visiting the country, with Robinson telling<\/a> the Guardian<\/em> that \u201cI\u2019ve come to see how this country got itself so well on to the straight and narrow,\u201d and a Tate representative telling<\/a> NBC News that they came to \u201csee how the country works, understand how people live.\u201d<\/p>\n Still, some experts doubt<\/span> that Russia has much room to escalate at this point\u2014and if it did, how much impact it would even have. \u201cI\u2019m not sure what that next step is out there,\u201d said Steven Pifer, an expert at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.<\/p>\n Within Ukraine, Russia is already hitting the country hard, Peek said. \u201cThey don\u2019t really have much more vertical escalation left to go.\u201d While Russia could increase ballistic missile strikes, its production capacity is limited, with no more than 50 to 70 strikes possible<\/a> per month.<\/p>\n In Europe, Russia could lean more into the intimidation tactics that it is already using, like drone incursions or sabotage<\/a>. Russia could also step up attempts to influence Europe politically<\/a>, with a presidential election coming up in France next year.<\/p>\n However, Russia\u2019s chances of success may be slim, with three recent separate elections, in Armenia, Hungary, and Moldova, ending in defeat for Kremlin-backed candidates. Meanwhile, Europe, spurred by U.S. political shifts, has doubled down on support for Ukraine with the recent implementation<\/a> of a more than $100 billion loan.<\/p>\n Russian outreach to conservatives may also increase, Bergmann said. \u201cWhat\u2019s very clear is [the Russians] are trying to gain an audience with the [U.S.] president.\u201d<\/p>\n Again, though, Russia faces a potentially difficult path. \u201cThere may be a charm offensive, but I\u2019m not sure it\u2019s at a particularly receptive audience,\u201d Pifer said, noting the decrease in high-profile world leaders attending this year\u2019s St. Petersburg forum relative to past years.<\/p>\n Owens\u2019s visit generated intense criticism from other prominent right-wing media figures, such as Laura Loomer<\/a> and Mark Levin<\/a>, with Loomer separately posting<\/a> about Russian influence operations and sending an employee to Kyiv<\/a> to report on Ukraine.<\/p>\n In his public letter to Putin, Zelensky projected confidence. \u201cThe world has not grown tired of Ukraine, as you long hoped it would. But there is growing fatigue with Russia,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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