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In late February, relations between Mexico and the United States seemed to hit a high note. After months of pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump demanding that Mexico do more to battle its cartels, Mexican forces delivered, killing<\/a> the head of the country\u2019s most powerful organized crime group, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel.<\/p>\n Despite the cartel-inflicted chaos that followed<\/a>, Mexico received praise from the United States: \u201cThis is a great development for Mexico, the US, Latin America, and the world,\u201d Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, wrote on X<\/a>. \u201cThe good guys are stronger than the bad guys.\u201d<\/p>\n The current U.S. ambassador in Mexico City, Ronald Johnson, noted<\/a> that \u201cbilateral cooperation has reached unprecedented levels.\u201d Reports that the operation relied on U.S. intelligence seemed to represent what Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has called<\/a> \u201ccooperation without subordination.\u201d<\/p>\n Since then, however, bilateral relations have rapidly unraveled. Washington\u2019s increasing hawkishness\u00a0over security and corruption south of the border has pushed U.S.-Mexico ties to a boiling point, just ahead of talks over the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The process formally began on May 28, with the United States opting for bilateral talks with Mexico first.<\/p>\n The future of trade between the countries has never seemed more tenuous, and depending on the outcome of the talks, U.S.-Mexico relations could be derailed for years to come.<\/p>\n The rift began<\/span> to widen last month, when reports emerged<\/a> that two CIA agents were killed in a car accident during an operation to take down a drug lab in the Mexican state of Chihuahua.\u00a0Sheinbaum\u2019s government claimed to have no knowledge of the agents\u2019 presence in Mexico\u2014a potential violation of sovereignty and the Mexican Constitution.<\/p>\n The CIA operation also set off alarm bells given Trump\u2019s threats to send ground troops into Mexico. \u201cThis is not something that should be taken lightly by any Mexican,\u201d Sheinbaum said at a news conference<\/a>.<\/p>\n Sheinbaum has spent much of the past year keeping a cool head and trying to appease Trump, from halting oil shipments to Cuba<\/a> to sending nearly 100 cartel members to face justice in the United States. But she has drawn a clear red line when it comes to direct involvement of U.S. troops on Mexican soil.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s a real duel between the presidents of Mexico and the United States, a challenge that\u2019s been brewing for months,\u201d said Rafael Fern\u00e1ndez de Castro, the director of the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego. \u201cThis is without a doubt the most difficult year in many decades in terms of the bilateral relationship.\u201d<\/p>\n Days after the CIA accident, Johnson gave a provocative speech<\/a> at a factory groundbreaking in the state of Sinaloa, hinting that the Trump administration\u2019s next target in Mexico would be government corruption. Trump has long railed against the \u201cintolerable alliance\u201d between Mexican officials and the cartels, saying<\/a> that cartels have a \u201ctremendous grip\u201d on politicians.<\/p>\n Citing Mexico\u2019s corruption as a threat to international investment and the USMCA, during his speech in Sinaloa, Johnson called on the country \u201cto criminalize bribery and corruption and enforce codes of conduct for public officials.\u201d He added, \u201cWe may soon see significant action on this front. So, stay tuned.\u201d<\/p>\n On April 29, Washington made good on its threat. The U.S. Justice Department charged<\/a> the governor of Sinaloa, Rub\u00e9n Rocha Moya, and nine other current and former officials on allegations of working with the Sinaloa cartel to distribute massive amounts of fentanyl, heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine to the United States.<\/p>\n The U.S. charges and extradition request landed like a bomb in Mexico. Rocha Moya is a member of Mexico\u2019s governing Morena party, was a close ally of former President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, and was publicly backed<\/a> by Sheinbaum.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s no doubt that there\u2019s a before and after the extradition request,\u201d Fern\u00e1ndez de Castro said. \u201cIt was unprecedented. This really strained the bilateral relationship.\u201d<\/p>\n Sheinbaum was evidently caught off guard, demanding more evidence before considering extradition. There was no sign that the president had any intention of investigating Rocha Moya before the U.S. charges. \u201cWe will not cover up for anyone who has committed a crime,\u201d Sheinbaum said. \u201cHowever, if there is no clear evidence, it is evident that the objective of these charges by the Department of Justice is political.\u201d<\/p>\n The charges against Rocha Moya put Sheinbaum in an impossible bind. She must make efforts to appease the United States if Mexico wants a chance at emerging from the trade talks with a good deal. At the same time, she needs to mollify the anti-American fervor within the Morena party, which won\u2019t take Rocha Moya\u2019s extradition lightly. Even with the USMCA on the table, Morena hard-liners will push for the Sinaloa governor to stay in Mexico.<\/p>\n Given the sluggishness of Mexico\u2019s economy and its dependence on the U.S. market, it\u2019s likely that Sheinbaum will eventually hand over Rocha Moya to mollify Trump.<\/p>\n The extradition request proved to be just the beginning. CNN reported<\/a> this month that the CIA had expanded its presence in Mexico and was involved in the assassination of a cartel member in March. (Sheinbaum called<\/a> the report a \u201cfiction the size of the universe.\u201d A CIA spokesperson also denied it.) Days later, the New York Times<\/em> reported<\/a> that the U.S. Justice Department was pushing to increase indictments of \u201ccorrupt Mexican officials\u201d under terrorism statutes.<\/p>\n On May 15, reports emerged<\/a> that two indicted officials from Rocha Moya\u2019s administration had turned themselves in to U.S. authorities, lending even greater credibility to Washington\u2019s accusations and ramping up the pressure on Sheinbaum to turn over more officials.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s building up to a crescendo,\u201d said Arturo Sarukhan, a former Mexican ambassador to the United States. \u201cWe may be left in the worst of worlds: a relationship that collapses at a tactical level and the perception in Washington that the Mexican government is in fact protecting and Teflon-coating links between politics, politicians, and transnational criminal organizations.\u201d<\/p>\n With the USMCA review<\/span> now underway, the collapse of the bilateral relationship could not have come at a worse time. For Mexico, the stakes are tremendous.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s urgent and of utmost necessity for Mexico to preserve the agreement,\u201d Fern\u00e1ndez de Castro said. \u201cThanks to the USMCA, Mexico is now the United States\u2019 number one trading partner. And Mexico is also one of the countries in the world with the lowest tariffs in the era of Trump 2.0.\u201d<\/p>\n Trade with the United States alone represents more than 80 percent of Mexican exports. In these negotiations, Mexico will want<\/a> to keep the USMCA as stable as possible while protecting energy sovereignty and limiting the use of tariffs for nontrade issues such as migration or security.<\/p>\n Under USMCA rules, the three countries must decide by July 1 whether to extend the agreement for another 16 years. If not, the agreement will remain in force but undergo annual review until 2036, when it could expire. Countries may also withdraw from the agreement altogether, which would have dire consequences for North America.<\/p>\n Trump has also irked Canada with threats including annexation, blocking a new bridge<\/a> between Michigan and Ontario, and imposing a 100 percent tariff<\/a> should Canada make a trade deal with China. Ottawa may now be looking for trade deals elsewhere<\/a>. During the USMCA review, Canada will likely aim to resolve disputes on issues such as forestry and look for<\/a> the United States to remove tariffs on steel and aluminum. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has not yet announced a schedule for formal negotiations with Canada.<\/p>\n
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