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Welcome to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Africa Brief.<\/p>\n The highlights this week: The United States expands its joint military operations<\/strong> with Nigeria in the country\u2019s northeast, Senegal\u2019s political schism<\/strong> deepens after the ousted prime minister is elected parliament speaker, and the Trump administration plans to accept more white South African refugees<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In recent weeks, joint U.S.-Nigerian airstrikes have eliminated a top leader<\/a> of the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and killed 175 militants<\/a> in Nigeria, according to statements from Washington and Abuja.<\/p>\n The expansion of U.S. operations in the northeast, the epicenter of Nigeria\u2019s insurgency, has been welcomed by Nigerians and politicians fed up with insecurity. So far, the joint strikes have not led to civilian casualties, unlike Nigerian-led strikes, which frequently accidentally kill civilians<\/a>.<\/p>\n Yet experts told Foreign Policy<\/em> that Washington may find itself facing the kind of animosity it experienced in the Sahel<\/a> if military operations don\u2019t change Nigeria\u2019s complex, decadeslong insurgency, which has metastasized in recent years into a \u201cransom economy<\/a>\u201d as armed groups murder and kidnap citizens across the country for profit.<\/p>\n For years, Abuja has battled several jihadi groups operating in northern Nigeria, including Boko Haram, which emerged as a terrorist group in 2009; the Sahelian group Lakurawa, which formed <\/a>the following year; and ISWAP, which splintered from Boko Haram<\/a> in 2016.<\/p>\n In the northwest, bandits operate from forested hideouts, engaging in mass abductions for ransom. Farther south, in the Middle Belt, nomadic Fulani herders, who are predominantly Muslim, are migrating southward due to drought in the north, leading to violent clashes with largely Christian farmers over land and water access.<\/p>\n Overall, Nigeria\u2019s crisis reflects wider state failure to provide security and basic funding of public services such as electricity, water, and education.<\/p>\n Nigeria has consistently carried out strikes<\/a> against these armed groups. Yet Ladd Serwat, the senior analyst for Africa at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED), said that jihadis easily replenish their ranks.<\/p>\n Some of the people who join these militant groups are forced to \u201cfor their own safety, because of the absence of [state] authorities or the belief that insurgents are going to offer them better protection,\u201d Serwat said.<\/p>\n Nigeria also has the largest population of out-of-school children<\/a> globally, mainly in the north, and armed groups have relied heavily on child recruitment<\/a>. \u201cThat\u2019s the pool from which these bad guys recruit from,\u201d said Kabir Adamu, the CEO of Abuja-based Beacon Security and Intelligence. \u201cAll you have to do is drive around the urban centers in Nigeria and see the number of kids that are out on the streets doing what they shouldn\u2019t be doing.\u201d<\/p>\n Around 30,000 people have been killed in violence across Nigeria since President Bola Tinubu took office in 2023, according to ACLED data.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, kidnappers operate<\/a> with near impunity. Earlier this month, Boko Haram<\/a> carried out large-scale school abductions in Nigeria\u2019s southwestern Oyo state. The attack in Tinubu\u2019s political heartland<\/a>\u2014which involved the filmed beheading<\/a> of a mathematics teacher that was widely circulated<\/a> online and the kidnapping of at least 46 students and teachers\u2014marked a terrifying expansion<\/a> of Nigeria\u2019s insurgency.<\/p>\n Last month, 416 people<\/a> were kidnapped by Boko Haram from Borno state. \u201cNot a single person has been arrested and prosecuted\u201d for that attack, Adamu said. \u201cYou can\u2019t have a situation where there is no justice, there is no accountability.\u201d<\/p>\n The United States became increasingly vocal about Nigeria\u2019s security situation late last year. In October, U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s administration redesignated<\/a> Nigeria as a \u201cCountry of Particular Concern\u201d over false claims of Christian genocide. (In reality, all faiths in Nigeria have been affected by the violence.) Media reports have suggested<\/a> that the move was driven by lobbying<\/a> by Nigerian separatist groups.<\/p>\n In December, the United States carried out strikes against Lakurawa in Nigeria\u2019s northwestern state of Sokoto, which residents said failed<\/a> to kill any militants. Attacks by Lakurawa<\/a> continued after the strikes. The following month, Trump warned of a \u201cmany-time strike\u201d campaign if the Nigerian government failed to protect Christian populations.<\/p>\n Since then, Nigerian National Security Advisor Nuhu Ribadu has spent months engaging in diplomacy<\/a> to transform Washington\u2019s destabilizing rhetoric into joint military cooperation. Still, critics have argued that the $9 million Nigeria has spent on lobbying in Washington is wasteful<\/a> when around 40 percent<\/a> of Nigerians live below the international extreme poverty line of $3 daily per person.<\/p>\n Despite the reported success of recent joint strikes, experts have their doubts over the campaign\u2019s long-term success. \u201cI don\u2019t think that airstrikes alone would be enough to combat insurgency. Insurgents \u2026 are quite embedded in certain areas within civilian populations,\u201d Serwat said.<\/p>\n Washington\u2019s stated objective of \u201cprotecting Christians<\/a>\u201d could even worsen the insurgency, Adamu argued. Jihadis \u201cmay use this as a basis for additional recruitment in Nigeria, and say, \u2018Come and join us so we can stop the spread of U.S. politicization in Nigeria,\u2019\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cPolitically, it may also backfire on the government\u201d ahead of next year\u2019s general elections, Adamu said, \u201csince there\u2019s a strong anti-U.S. sentiment, especially in northern Nigeria.\u201d<\/p>\n Friday, May 29:<\/strong> The United Nations Security Council is set to renew sanctions against South Sudan.<\/p>\n Monday, June 1:<\/strong> Ethiopia holds general elections. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is highly likely to win, and his ruling Prosperity Party is expected to retain its parliamentary majority.<\/p>\n Senegal\u2019s political schism.<\/strong> On Tuesday, lawmakers elected<\/a> Ousmane Sonko, Senegal\u2019s recently sacked prime minister, as parliament speaker in a bold challenge to President Bassirou \u2060\u2060Diomaye Faye. Faye dissolved his cabinet and dismissed<\/a> Sonko last week, following months of political tension between the former allies.<\/p>\n Faye ran in the 2024 presidential elections<\/a> as the candidate for the PASTEF party, led by Sonko, after the latter\u2019s candidacy was disqualified due to a defamation conviction. But since then, the party has faced internal rifts over International Monetary Fund (IMF) negotiations and the handling of Senegal\u2019s high debt-to-GDP ratio<\/a>.<\/p>\n On Monday, Faye named<\/a> former banker Ahmadou Al Aminou Lo as the new prime minister. But as the political schism continues to play out, Sonko may have the upper hand, with PASTEF\u2014which remains largely loyal to Sonko\u2014controlling 130 of the 165 seats in Senegal\u2019s legislature.<\/p>\n Sudan\u2019s Colombian fighters.<\/strong> The United Arab Emirates has recruited Colombian mercenaries to help fight alongside the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, according to a new report<\/a> by Human Rights Watch.<\/p>\n Sudan\u2019s civil war, which erupted between the RSF and the Sudanese military in April 2023, has killed more than 150,000 people and displaced 14 million<\/a>. The UAE has reportedly backed the RSF since the conflict began, leading to Sudan\u2019s government accusing<\/a> it of \u201ccomplicity in genocide\u201d\u2014an allegation that the UAE has rejected.<\/p>\n Afrikaner refugees.<\/strong> The Trump administration plans to allow an additional 10,000 white South Africans into the United States, claiming that they face an \u201cemergency refugee situation\u201d due to \u201cunforeseen developments in South Africa,\u201d according<\/a> to a State Department notice sent to Congress last week.<\/p>\n The decision, which could cost Washington an additional $100 million<\/a>, raises the Trump administration\u2019s cap on refugees to 17,500. Nearly all of the refugees admitted into the country in Trump\u2019s second term have been Afrikaners.<\/p>\n France-Botswana deal.<\/strong> Following its fallout<\/a> with Niger\u2019s military government, French state-owned nuclear giant Orano has shifted its focus to Botswana\u2019s more than 800,000 tons of untapped uranium reserves.<\/p>\n After months of media speculation<\/a> about a deal, Botswanan President Duma Boko confirmed earlier this month at the Africa Forward Summit co-hosted by France and Kenya that Orano Botswana, which registered as a company on April 10, has secured exploration rights.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not something that starts now,\u201d Boko told<\/a> the BBC\u2019s Focus on Africa. \u201cThey already hold prospecting licenses, and we anticipate that they will do the drilling, the prospecting, establish the different quantities of deposits of uranium.\u201d<\/p>\n For Botswana, the world\u2019s top diamond producer, the agreement is part of its push to diversify its economy as buyers turn to manufactured diamonds.<\/p>\n Arsenal\u2019s African identity.<\/strong> Viral videos last week showed fans across Africa celebrating Arsenal\u2019s first English Premier League title in 22 years. In Africa Is a Country, Sean Henry Jacobs argues<\/a> that this shouldn\u2019t come as a surprise because the soccer club is essentially African.<\/p>\n Before Ars\u00e8ne Wenger\u2019s tenure as manager of Arsenal between 1996 and 2018, Arsenal had recruited little from Africa. However, Jacobs writes, by \u201c2025, more than two dozen African-born players had played for Arsenal, primarily due to Wenger\u2019s doing.\u201d<\/p>\n