\n<\/p>\n
LAS VEGAS \u2014 Kiev O\u2019Neil approaches sports betting surgically, like a cold, calculating assassin. Emotionless. So Bears fans might want to stop reading.<\/p>\n
That he is a lifetime Bears fan might be the curveball of this equation because he is lying in wait to let the public inflate this very public franchise.<\/p>\n
At the proper moment, he\u2019ll strike, betting under a win total that he hopes climbs above 9\u00bd.<\/p>\n
O\u2019Neil operates The Odds Breakers out of Arizona. Every mid-April, he releases custom NFL Pythagorean win figures, comparing them to how many games each team won and using them to polish predictive analyses.<\/p>\n
Rookie coach Ben Johnson and the Bears went 11-6 last season, winning the NFC North and beating the Packers in the playoffs. A divisional-round overtime home loss to the Rams served as the season-ending stinger.<\/p>\n
The Bears had a preseason 8\u00bd win total, pleasing all over bettors.<\/p>\n
Last month, Las Vegas sportsbooks opened the Bears\u2019 2026 win total at 9\u00bd. William Hill posted under 9\u00bd at -115. On Monday, Circa Sports had over 9\u00bd at +100, under -120, or risk $120 to win $100.<\/p>\n
BetMGM, which O\u2019Neil can\u2019t access in Arizona, offers adjusted win totals, -210 for Bears under 10\u00bd; -125 under 9\u00bd.<\/p>\n
\u201cI wait [to bet] the public teams,\u201d O\u2019Neil said. \u201cWait or don\u2019t take at all.\u201d<\/p>\n
He can refer to the Bears as just another public team because his \u201cPythag\u201d for them is 8.04, a -2.96 discrepancy to what occurred (11 wins) that\u2019s the largest letdown of the 32 teams.<\/p>\n
\u201cI want 10 as my number,\u201d O\u2019Neil said. \u201cI think their most likely outcome is nine wins, but there\u2019s a chance they get to 10. My \u2018Pythag\u2019 says to go under, so that\u2019s what I\u2019m looking for.\u201d<\/p>\n
If an amped public boosts the Bears to 10\u00bd?<\/p>\n
\u201cIf it gets to 10\u00bd, I\u2019ll lay -200,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019m in.\u201d<\/p>\n
K.C. fortunes fizzle<\/b><\/p>\n
A year ago, O\u2019Neil\u2019s \u201cPythag\u201d numbers steered him toward an under wager on the Chiefs\u2019 11\u00bd win total. He bet on a regression to the mean that finally occurred for the team that had experienced great fortune since 2019.<\/p>\n
Two seasons ago, Kansas City went 15-1 before a 38-0 thrashing at Denver.<\/p>\n
One year ago, O\u2019Neil concocted a \u201cPythag\u201d figure of 9.80 for the Chiefs.<\/p>\n
\u201cLast year, Kansas City was literally the biggest discrepancy [of -5.2] I\u2019d ever seen, from true actual wins to a \u2018Pythag\u2019 win total,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd they tanked that last game. They could have had 16 wins!\u201d<\/p>\n
To turn that huge 5.2 discrepancy into a mammoth 6.2.<\/p>\n
\u201cMassive regression coming,\u201d O\u2019Neil told me one year ago, \u201cwith an aging team.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Chiefs went 6-11 last season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a season-ending knee injury, went 6-8 as a starter, dropping five of his last six games.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat became my best under bet,\u2019\u2019 O\u2019Neil said. \u2018\u2018Among other things, the AFC West was getting stronger, better coaches were getting hired in that division, all making it a sure bet to the under.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhether it hits or not, the percentage of hitting it [was] higher than many others.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Chiefs\u2019 win total this season is 10\u00bd, under -130, which I have already bet. That old team has only aged, and O\u2019Neil established a 9.57 \u201cPythag\u201d for Kansas City, confirming my decision.<\/p>\n
Likes being right<\/b><\/p>\n
O\u2019Neil was raised in Downers Grove and went to Wisconsin in Madison. Those details were pertinent in the second week of January, when family and 30 close friends celebrated his 50th birthday in Puerto Vallarta.<\/p>\n
On that certain Saturday night, the Bears once again trailed the Packers for three quarters before rallying in the fourth for the playoff triumph.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere were about 20 Packers fans there,\u201d he said. \u201cA miserable first three quarters. The end? Pure joy. The biggest birthday present I could have gotten.\u201d<\/p>\n
As a fan.<\/p>\n
As a gambler, he\u2019s ruthless.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou cannot expect the Bears to keep doing this unless [they] massively improve. This was clearly the luckiest team.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Bears\u2019 plus-22 turnover differential led the NFL.<\/p>\n
With those fourth-quarter cardiac comebacks in mind, O\u2019Neil suggested it might be wise, at least for the first few games this year, to make first-half wagers against the Bears.<\/p>\n
Fans could still bet on them for the game or wait till they trail to make moneyline bets that they\u2019ll wake up, rally and win.<\/p>\n
Those who did so in those two Packers games could have fetched about 10-to-1 odds in both cases.<\/p>\n
O\u2019Neil has discussed wagering with people who cannot bet against their team:<\/p>\n
\u201cI tell them, \u2018You should bet on your team or against your team because that\u2019s usually the team you know best.\u2019 You have to completely separate the fact that you like them.<\/p>\n
\u201cEmotions never should be involved in sports betting. Otherwise, it\u2019s just not for you, anyway.\u201d<\/p>\n
His \u201cPythags\u201d have directed him to bet Giants over 7\u00bd (+105) and Titans under 6\u00bd (+115).<\/p>\n
Six years ago, the company that produced \u201cPythags\u201d went under. That spurred O\u2019Neil to produce his own figures with advanced (or truer) exponents.<\/p>\n
He recommends using these to complement approaches, such as gauging a fourth-place team now playing a first-place schedule, the draft, trades and coaching changes.<\/p>\n
Visit his site to marvel at the mathematical details.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt isn\u2019t always just about the money you win; it\u2019s about the glorification of just being right,\u201d he said. \u201cI like being right.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n