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Welcome back to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Latin America Brief.<\/p>\n The highlights this week: Peruvians vote in presidential elections<\/strong>, Mexico makes moves to start fracking<\/strong>, and Brazil announces new security cooperation<\/strong> with the United States.<\/p>\n Peru held a presidential election on Sunday, but the results<\/a> only started becoming clear in the middle of the week. With at least 93 percent of votes tabulated<\/a> on Thursday afternoon local time, right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori advanced to a runoff. Leftist congressman Roberto S\u00e1nchez ranked in second place.<\/p>\n Dozens of candidates were on the ballot, and none received more than 18 percent of the vote. (To win an election outright in Peru, a candidate must earn at least 50 percent in the first round of voting.) Fujimori got around 17 percent and S\u00e1nchez about 12 percent. Despite the slow count, European Union observers said<\/a> the contest appeared free of fraud.<\/p>\n The lack of strong enthusiasm for any one contender reflected Peruvians\u2019 general distrust in politics after a turbulent decade that has seen nine different presidents. The national mood is one of \u201cexhaustion in the face of an endless series of corruption problems\u201d and \u201chopelessness, discouragement, and disinterest,\u201d Peruvian political scientist Alberto Vergara told<\/a> Uruguay\u2019s Sarand\u00ed Radio on Monday.<\/p>\n But the election results showed more than just that. Though most polls suggested that two right-wing candidates would advance to a runoff\u2014Fujimori and former Lima Mayor Rafael L\u00f3pez Aliaga\u2014S\u00e1nchez\u2019s relatively strong performance revealed that many Peruvians are interested in a left-wing platform.<\/p>\n That support remains even after former leftist President Pedro Castillo attempted a chaotic 2022 power grab<\/a> that led to his impeachment. S\u00e1nchez served in Castillo\u2019s cabinet; Castillo is currently in prison and endorsed S\u00e1nchez, who won votes in Peru\u2019s poorer and more rural areas.<\/p>\n S\u00e1nchez has pledged<\/a> to increase spending on health and education, legalize informal mining<\/a>, expand state control over the country\u2019s natural resources, and oversee constitutional changes to provide more public services toward Indigenous Peruvians.<\/p>\n Fujimori and L\u00f3pez Aliaga both pledged hard-line anti-crime crackdowns and pro-market policies. But Fujimori sought<\/a> to position herself as a more conciliatory figure, while L\u00f3pez Aliaga proclaimed<\/a> himself an admirer of U.S. President Donald Trump. In recent days, L\u00f3pez Aliaga voiced unsubstantiated claims of electoral fraud.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, S\u00e1nchez\u2019s performance prompted<\/a> some international investors to sell off their Peruvian holdings, leading the country\u2019s currency and stock market to drop in value.<\/p>\n L\u00f3pez Aliaga\u2019s vote gap with S\u00e1nchez stood at fewer than 20,000 votes as of Thursday afternoon. Few polls have been conducted about Fujimori\u2019s prospects against either L\u00f3pez Aliaga or S\u00e1nchez in a runoff.<\/p>\n Fujimori has unsuccessfully run for president three times. She is a staunch defender of her father\u2014former President Alberto Fujimori, who ruled as a dictator\u2014and has gained a loyal following as well as many detractors. Fujimori espouses pro-market economics and an aggressive anti-crime stance.<\/p>\n S\u00e1nchez\u2019s own connections could turn off some voters: He is an ally<\/a> of Antauro Humala<\/a>, a former member of the military who served 17 years in prison for participating in a pro-Indigenous, ethnic nationalist uprising.<\/p>\n While S\u00e1nchez performed well among Peru\u2019s poor, Fujimori received support from across the country\u2019s socioeconomic spectrum, according to analysis<\/a> of district-level voting patterns by researchers at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences.<\/p>\n Preliminary results from a congressional election also held on Sunday suggest that right-wing lawmakers will outnumber left-wing ones in Peru\u2019s legislature. But neither camp will have a strong majority without the support of centrists. The presidential runoff will take place on June 7.<\/p>\n Friday, April 17, to Saturday, April 18:<\/strong> Several Latin American and Caribbean leaders visit Spain for a summit of progressive governments.<\/p>\n Tuesday, April 21:<\/strong> The United Nations Security Council discusses Colombia.<\/p>\n Thursday, April 23:<\/strong> The Security Council discusses Haiti.<\/p>\n Friday, April 24, to Wednesday, April 29:<\/strong> Colombia co-hosts a conference about transitioning away from fossil fuels.<\/p>\n New economic forecast.<\/strong> The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a forecast<\/a> on Tuesday for how the Iran war<\/a> will affect economies worldwide. The report came with a caveat: The baseline projection assumes that the war will end in the next few weeks, with more damage possible if it stretches into midyear.<\/p>\n For the time being, Latin America and the Caribbean are faring well compared with other emerging markets, according to the IMF, in part because several countries are oil exporters. Since the IMF\u2019s last forecast<\/a> in January, it increased its prediction for Brazil\u2019s GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, to 1.9 percent. Venezuela\u2019s economy is expected to grow by 4 percent.<\/p>\n A few large economies\u2014Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru\u2014are even expected to grow faster than the United States. The IMF has not yet published forecasts for smaller countries in the region\u2014many of them energy importers that are expected to fare worse. Energy-importing Bolivia, which was included, is expected to see its economy contract by 3.3 percent this year.<\/p>\n Some effects of the war are due to stretch into next year. Because it will take several months for disruptions in fertilizer shipments to show up in agricultural data, the IMF revised Brazil\u2019s 2027 GDP projection down by 0.3 percentage points compared with January.<\/p>\n Fracking in Mexico.<\/strong> Against the backdrop of the energy crisis, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced<\/a> last week that her government plans to study the possibility of fracking for natural gas. It\u2019s a major policy reversal<\/a> from Sheinbaum and also contrasts with that of her predecessor and mentor, former President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador.<\/p>\n Mexico imports<\/a> around 75 percent of its natural gas, mostly from the United States. That arrangement was easier to defend when bilateral relations were more positive. But U.S. tariffs<\/a> and threats of military action<\/a> in Mexico have led Sheinbaum to look for ways to become more energy independent.<\/p>\n Fracking would also create a new revenue stream for the highly indebted state oil company Pemex<\/a>. Sheinbaum said Pemex would look to use new, more environmentally friendly fracking techniques and that the plan was pending the review of a government environmental committee. In the same announcement, she pledged to scale up wind and solar energy.<\/p>\n However, environmentalist groups have not held back their criticism, with Greenpeace Mexico calling Mexico\u2019s move<\/a> toward fracking a \u201cbetrayal.\u201d<\/p>\n