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Welcome to\u00a0Foreign Policy\u2019s South Asia Brief.<\/p>\n
The highlights this week: Pakistan remains at the center of U.S.-Iran mediation<\/strong>, 9 million people are struck from voter rolls shortly before elections in West Bengal<\/strong>, and India\u2019s finance minister skips the International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings<\/strong>.<\/p>\n U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad over the weekend didn\u2019t lead to an immediate deal, but they still resulted in a string of victories for the host, Pakistan.<\/p>\n One is vindication. Critics doubted that Pakistan had the capacity to mediate, yet it succeeded in leading talks with senior U.S. and Iranian officials\u2014the highest-level face-to-face negotiations between the two sides in decades. They reportedly<\/a> came close to succeeding. Pakistan also played a role in advocating<\/a> for Vice President J.D. Vance to lead the U.S. delegation.<\/p>\n Pakistan also gained a major reputational boost. The country doesn\u2019t have a positive global image, mainly because of its long-standing problems with terrorism, and it has long struggled to attract foreign investors and tourists. But in this case, it was in the headlines for positive reasons, and journalists around the world converged on Islamabad.<\/p>\n Furthermore, Pakistan has bolstered its strategic interests by showcasing its clout in the Middle East\u2014arguably the region that is most important for its interests, given its many allies and extensive trade and energy equities there.<\/p>\n The lack of a deal so far is a setback for Pakistan, which really wants the Iran war to end, given its proximity to the conflict and the several million Pakistani expatriates living in the Middle East. Across Pakistan, from within the policy community to the wider public, hopes were high that a deal would be struck over the weekend. The outcome put a damper on the national mood.<\/p>\n Not getting a deal also deprives Islamabad of useful potential leverage. If it helped end the war, Pakistan could go to its donors among the Gulf countries and make the case for loan debt forgiveness (or at least refinancing) based on its critical role.<\/p>\n This is no small matter: Pakistan requires external financing to ensure continued support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Last week, Pakistan announced that it would pay back<\/a> a loan to the United Arab Emirates after the UAE declined to lower the interest rate. (Fortunately for Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have agreed<\/a> to provide $5 billion in fresh assistance.)<\/p>\n All this said, Pakistan remains very much in the game. Axios reported<\/a> this week that Pakistan, along with Egypt and Turkey, are continuing to talk to the United States and Iran to try to reach a deal. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is expected<\/a> to visit Saudi Arabia and Turkey this week, presumably to discuss Iran.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran alongside other Pakistani mediators in an effort to support the fragile U.S.-Iran cease-fire, which is set to expire next week. Islamabad is a possible venue for another round of talks\u2014a choice that U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed<\/a> on Tuesday. But given Sharif\u2019s travel schedule, that is unlikely to happen this week.<\/p>\n No matter where and when talks may happen, Pakistan will have a prominent seat at the table. Pakistani officials are playing the long game. They have described last weekend\u2019s talks as the first step in what they are branding<\/a> the \u201cIslamabad Process\u201d\u2014likely acknowledging that it will take more than a single summit to get two mistrustful rivals to reach a deal.<\/p>\n Still, an important test is fast approaching. Pakistan and its fellow mediators will be under pressure to convince the United States and Iran to continue to hold their fire when the current truce expires. That would buy more time for negotiations\u2014and give Pakistan additional opportunities to flash its bona fides as a lead conflict mediator.<\/p>\n West Bengal\u2019s voter rolls.<\/strong> Shortly before voters go to the polls, West Bengal\u2014one of four<\/a> Indian states with elections this month\u2014faces a controversy. Nationwide changes by India\u2019s Election Commission have led 9 million people<\/a>\u2014more than 10 percent of the state\u2019s population\u2014to be struck from West Bengal\u2019s voter list, sparking an uproar.<\/p>\n The move, purportedly intended to reduce the number of ineligible voters, has raised concerns<\/a> among critics that New Delhi is exploiting the Election Commission\u2019s changes<\/a> to bolster the Bharatiya Janata Party\u2019s electoral prospects. A sizable portion of the voters dropped from the list are Muslims<\/a>, who tend to vote for the Trinamool Congress party.<\/p>\n The Trinamool Congress has long run the state government, and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee\u2014who has held power for nearly 15 years\u2014is one of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s biggest rivals.<\/p>\n IMF-World Bank spring meetings.<\/strong> Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will skip this week\u2019s spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, reportedly<\/a> due to domestic commitments. This is the third year in a row that Sitharaman has missed the event\u2014which is striking but makes sense from New Delhi\u2019s perspective.<\/p>\n Because of the strength of India\u2019s economy, the government has no compelling need to send top officials to Washington to meet with multilateral donors. It\u2019s also a delicate moment for India\u2019s ties with the United States. But Sitharaman isn\u2019t alone: Few finance ministers from South Asia are confirmed to be in Washington this week.<\/p>\n Two exceptions are Muhammad Aurangzeb of Pakistan and Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury of Bangladesh. Aurangzeb is a recent fixture at the spring meetings, while Amir Khasru represents Bangladesh\u2019s new government. The finance minister for the region\u2019s newest government\u2014Nepal\u2019s Swarnim Wagle, a former World Bank economist\u2014will also stay home, however.<\/p>\n South Asia\u2019s housing crisis.<\/strong> The latest Gallup World Poll, a survey of more than 140 countries, finds<\/a> that South Asia has some of the least affordable housing in the world. Four countries in the region rank in the top 10: Sri Lanka (2), Bangladesh (5), India (6), and Nepal (8). Fifty-four percent of Sri Lankans polled said they struggled to pay for shelter in the last year.<\/p>\n The poll results reflect some key challenges facing South Asian states: poverty, urbanization, high population density, and a lack of basic infrastructure. It also hints at economic fragility across the region: Sri Lanka is still recovering from a massive crisis in 2022, while Bangladesh and Nepal are dealing with major issues, from a lack of export diversification<\/a> to brain drain<\/a>.<\/p>\n Additional shocks\u2014from the wars in Ukraine and Iran to natural disasters<\/a>\u2014have hit these countries hard and added to the public\u2019s woes, including their difficulties affording housing.<\/p>\n Starlink service has made major inroads in South Asia, with availability in Bhutan and Sri Lanka and launches expected soon in India and Pakistan.<\/p>\n Bangladesh is an especially curious case. Starlink has been available in Bangladesh since last May, with some of the lowest latency levels in Asia, referring to the time needed for data to travel from a device to a server. (Low latency essentially means strong service.)<\/p>\nWhat Next for Pakistan?<\/h3>\n
What We\u2019re Following<\/h3>\n
FP\u2019s Most Read This Week<\/h3>\n
Under the Radar<\/h3>\n