There is a lament about politics in Kyrgyzstan: Every five to 10 years, the country tires of its increasingly repressive president and throws him out. From 2005 to 2020, this held true. But 2025 has come and gone with no revolution, as candidates loyal to President Sadyr Japarov won a dominant majority<\/a> in last November\u2019s elections.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n As the nation of 7.4 million people has wavered between periods of mounting autocracy and flashes of revolution, many Western advocates and policymakers hoped that Kyrgyzstan could become the first Central Asian country to achieve a robust democracy. Now the question is whether Japarov, who became president after the country\u2019s last uprising in 2020, has instead figured out how to more securely consolidate power.<\/p>\n Last month, Japarov fired<\/a> the head of Kyrgyzstan\u2019s security services, Kamchybek Tashiev\u2014a longtime ally and the country\u2019s second-most powerful politician. In an interview<\/a> with the Kabar state news agency, Japarov said Tashiev\u2019s removal protected society from \u201cdivision,\u201d alleging that Tashiev\u2019s supporters were pushing for him to run against Japarov in next year\u2019s presidential election.<\/p>\n Japarov has acted quickly to purge<\/a> anyone associated with Tashiev from Kyrgyzstan\u2019s power structure. Tashiev has laid low, but Japarov isn\u2019t done yet: On March 16, authorities accused<\/a> Tashiev and his family of a $45 million corruption scheme involving Kyrgyzstan\u2019s state oil company, which could be the nail in his political coffin.<\/p>\n Kyrgyzstan\u2019s march into a new and perhaps more permanent season of illiberalism underscores a global wave of democratic disillusionment and shows the unique challenges of building an \u201cisland of democracy\u201d in Central Asia, as some analysts have previously labeled<\/a> the country.<\/p>\n Though it seems increasingly unlikely, it\u2019s still possible that the popular<\/a> Tashiev could go into Kyrgyzstan\u2019s political opposition. According to Nurbek Toktakunov, a lawyer and activist, genuine opposition could open a window for the return of the relative pluralism that Kyrgyzstan enjoyed after the country\u2019s 2010 revolution\u2014when the country had a vibrant civil society and press, free and fair parliamentary elections, and a somewhat competitive 2017 presidential election.<\/p>\n But if Japarov\u2019s bid to eliminate his last potential competitor works, and Tashiev \u201csimply goes away, then there\u2019s the danger that the consolidation of vertical power will go on,\u201d Toktakunov said. Kyrgyzstan may again slip toward the entrenched autocracy of its neighbors.<\/p>\n Kyrgyz riot police break up demonstrators during a rally by Japarov supporters in Bishkek on March 2, 2020. Vyacheslav Oseledko\/AFP via Getty Images<\/span> <\/p>\n<\/div>\n Japarov and Tashiev built their careers as a nationalist activists and parliamentarians during the era that followed the 2010 revolution. Both were vocal critics of the government at the time, rallying for the nationalization of the country\u2019s largest gold mine and getting arrested for attempting to storm parliament<\/a> during a rally in 2012.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Japarov attained more power in 2020, in the aftermath of another uprising. Angered by parliamentary elections that watchdogs and opposition groups characterized as rigged<\/a>, thousands of protesters forced the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov. Supporters sprung Japarov from prison, where he was serving time for organizing the kidnapping of a regional governor. (He rejects the charges as politically motivated.)<\/p>\n In October 2020, Japarov declared himself acting president, was confirmed by parliament, and moved quickly to secure his position by pushing through a constitutional rewrite that moved Kyrgyzstan from a parliamentary to a strong presidential system. In January 2021, he was overwhelmingly elected to the presidency\u2014and the constitutional changes were approved by referendum.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Even before Japarov took the helm, human rights advocates warned that Kyrgyz leaders were eroding media freedoms<\/a> and pursuing their opponents<\/a>. But in the wake of the 2020 revolution, the screws have tightened. Since Japarov came to power, Kyrgyzstan\u2019s Freedom in the World<\/a> score has fallen by one-third, with Freedom House changing its designation from \u201cpartly free\u201d to \u201cnot free,\u201d joining all its Central Asian peers.<\/p>\n Kyrgyzstan\u2019s now docile parliament has passed restrictive laws, including a Russian-style foreign agents law<\/a>, which forces nonprofits, including media organizations, to register if they receive any funding from abroad. The regime is applying maximum pressure on activists, critics, and the media through other levers, too.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat makes the current regime look different is the extent to which they\u2019ve really managed to dominate both the state institutions \u2026 and the outside, external environment,\u201d said Shairbek Dzhuraev, a Bishkek-based political scientist who leads the Crossroads Central Asia think tank. \u201cIt became so easy to end up in jail that you wouldn\u2019t just take risks.\u201d<\/p>\n Take the case of Kanyshay Mamyrkulova, a journalist whom prosecutors charged with \u201ccalling for mass disorder\u201d and \u201cinciting inter-ethnic hatred\u201d over a series of Facebook posts mocking a summit between the leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan last year. Mamyrkulova spent months in jail and was sentenced to four years of probation. The sentence effectively silenced her: She can\u2019t report, speak out on public issues, or leave the country.<\/p>\n Journalist Kanyshay Mamyrkulova waits for her appeals hearing to begin at the Bishkek City Court on Feb. 10.Alexander Thompson for Foreign Policy<\/span> <\/p>\n<\/div>\n Last month, while Mamyrkulova sat on a bench in a Bishkek courtroom, her lawyers argued before a panel of appeals judges to have her sentence reversed. \u201cWe\u2019ve come to a critically dangerous point where political analysis brings legal scrutiny, criticism of a foreign leader is incitement of inter-ethnic hatred, and public, political rhetoric is extremism,\u201d her lawyer, Asel Argymbaeva, told the court. \u201cThat\u2019s not justice. That\u2019s the criminalization of opinion.\u201d<\/p>\n The appeals court later cleared Mamyrkulova of the conviction for \u201cinter-ethnic hatred\u201d and cut her probation to three years; it upheld the \u201cmass disorder\u201d conviction.<\/p>\n Scenes like this have become more common under Japarov. In 2024, courts ordered the liquidation of the investigative news site Kloop, throwing its journalists in prison and declaring it \u201cextremist<\/a>\u201d after it continued to operate from abroad. The lengthy, though ultimately unsuccessful, prosecution of 27 activists and politicians, including women and older people, for their opposition to a 2022 border treaty with Uzbekistan sent another strong signal that criticism from anywhere brings consequences, Dzhuraev said.<\/p>\n A week before the November elections, security forces arrested<\/a> two leaders of the left-leaning Social Democrats\u2014the only remaining political opposition. Prosecutors allege that they were plotting a coup. \u201cCriticism rouses the people,\u201d said Toktakunov, who is defending the two leaders in court. \u201cOf course that\u2019s a danger for the authorities, and so they mustn\u2019t allow it.\u201d<\/p>\n Young people walk past a campaign poster affixed to an ice cream stand on Mambetov Street in the Vostok-5 neighborhood of Bishkek on Nov. 27, 2025.Alexander M. Thompson for Foreign Policy<\/span> <\/p>\n<\/div>\n For Japarov\u2019s supporters, Kyrgyzstan\u2019s booming economy is a sign that his leadership is working. Thanks in part to surging gold prices and its role as a conduit for sanctioned goods<\/a> en route to Russia, the country now has one of the world\u2019s fastest-growing economies<\/a>. Per capita GDP<\/a> rose more from 2021 through 2024 than during the decade before the 2020 revolution.<\/p>\n Under Japarov, the government budget has also tripled, as the state has cracked down on tax evasion and organized crime. \u201cThey have done 10 times more in these five years than in the 30 years under the other presidents,\u201d said Usen Nurmanbetov, a recently retired official in Kyrgyzstan\u2019s construction workers\u2019 union who supports Japarov.<\/p>\n The government\u2019s critics are quick to forget the stagnation and chaos during the era of parliamentary government, said Marlen Mamataliev, a Japarov ally who was recently elected speaker of parliament. \u201cSo many problems had built up that people had stopped believing in our future,\u201d he said. \u201cNow everyone\u2019s gotten that belief back.\u201d<\/p>\n Workers secure a massive election poster for Deputy Dastan Bekeshev to the side of an apartment block in the Kok-Zhar microdistrict of Bishkek on Nov. 10, 2025, the day campaigning began in Kyrgyzstan\u2019s snap parliamentary elections. Alexander Thompson for Foreign Policy<\/span> <\/p>\n<\/div>\n Though he wasn\u2019t on the ballot, the November elections appeared to confirm Japarov\u2019s hold on Kyrgyzstan. Election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe did not report<\/a> widespread fraud in the elections but noted that the \u201crestrictive campaign environment stifled candidate and voter engagement.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Government supporters counter that the results were evidence not of repression but of success. \u201cA sort of deal has been proposed and agreed to,\u201d Edil Baisalov, the deputy chair of the cabinet of ministers, said in a TV interview<\/a> the day before the Social Democrats leaders were arrested. In exchange for rapid economic growth and infrastructure development, \u201clet\u2019s talk and discuss all this a little less,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Japarov\u2019s supporters argue that Kyrgyzstan\u2019s erstwhile parliamentary democracy was holding back the country\u2019s development. Political parties turned ministries into a spoils system, and elections became a lucrative industry for corrupt politicians and journalists, Mamataliev said.<\/p>\n \u201cWe ended up with a wild democracy,\u201d Mamataliev said, adding that the Kyrgyz people \u201cwon\u2019t allow\u201d totalitarianism and that the country will \u201cgradually\u201d return to parliamentarianism when it is politically mature.<\/p>\n Toktakunov, the lawyer, agreed that Kyrgyz parliamentary democracy was flawed\u2014but so is every young democracy, he said. \u201cFrom that churn, democracy could\u2019ve emerged from within,\u201d rather than be imported by Western donors, he said.<\/p>\n Tashiev\u2019s ouster adds a new twist to the story. The tough-talking security chief spearheaded many of the government\u2019s most popular programs, including its anti-corruption campaign. He retains a solid base of support in the country\u2019s south and could launch a legitimate challenge to Japarov. \u201cThe single biggest elephant in the room is the presidential elections,\u201d said Dzhuraev, the political scientist. \u201cIn Kyrgyzstan, things change very quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n But a showdown between Japarov and Tashiev would ultimately amount to a contest of personalities, not politics: The two former allies share a similar illiberal vision. With the corruption allegations looming, Tashiev might instead have to face the very security apparatus he built. Though Japarov has not officially announced a reelection bid, in a speech<\/a> last year he predicted that he would win 90 percent of the vote.<\/p>\n Small pockets of dissent still exist, even in parliament. Last November, Dastan Bekeshev, a long-serving independent member of parliament, won his Bishkek constituency in a landslide<\/a>. He returned as one of the last critical voices in the legislature\u2014albeit one who speaks of change from within the system and avoids the opposition label.<\/p>\n Bekeshev has downplayed Tashiev\u2019s dismissal. It\u2019s just the country\u2019s latest \u201cturbulence,\u201d not a fundamental change, he said recently on social media<\/a>. But he acknowledges that troubles can accumulate.<\/p>\n \u201cWe often don\u2019t know and don\u2019t value what we have, then when we\u2019ve lost it, we start to cry,\u201d he said in an interview last year. \u201cNow we\u2019re reevaluating those things that were an irritation earlier. It turns out that we do need democracy. We do need freedom.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n <\/span>
\n ![\"A](\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/3-Kyrgyzstan-election-IMG_3982.jpg\")
\n <\/span>
\n ![\"Two](\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/2-Kyrgyzstan-election-IMG_3851.jpg\")
\n <\/span>
\n
\n ![\"Two](\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1-Kyrgyzstan-election-IMG_3828.jpg\")
\n <\/span>