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Two recent developments\u2014one in New Delhi and another off the coast of Sri Lanka\u2014could have important consequences for the future of U.S.-India relations as President Donald Trump wages war in Iran.<\/p>\n
On March 5, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau spoke<\/a> at the annual Raisina Dialogue, an Indian government-supported conference that brings together policymakers, journalists, and analysts to discuss global issues. Landau reiterated the Trump administration\u2019s commitment to pursuing a collaborative relationship with India while adhering to an \u201cAmerica First\u201d agenda.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Two recent developments\u2014one in New Delhi and another off the coast of Sri Lanka\u2014could have important consequences for the future of U.S.-India relations as President Donald Trump wages war in Iran.<\/p>\n On March 5, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau spoke<\/a> at the annual Raisina Dialogue, an Indian government-supported conference that brings together policymakers, journalists, and analysts to discuss global issues. Landau reiterated the Trump administration\u2019s commitment to pursuing a collaborative relationship with India while adhering to an \u201cAmerica First\u201d agenda.<\/p>\n However, Landau made a point to add that the administration would not help to boost India\u2019s material capabilities: \u201cIndia should understand that we are not going to make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago in terms of saying, we are going to let you develop all these markets, and then, the next thing we know, you are beating us in a lot of commercial things,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The Raisina Dialogue opened in New Delhi just days after the war in Iran had begun, raising the stakes of the debates taking place there. The irony of Landau underscoring Trump\u2019s America First foreign-policy agenda is that the conflict, unless swiftly concluded, will lead the United States into yet another quagmire in the Middle East.<\/p>\n The official Indian reaction to Landau\u2019s comments was swift: \u201cIndia\u2019s rise will be determined solely by India,\u201d Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said in a statement<\/a> on the conference\u2019s last day, without explicitly mentioning the speech. One can surmise that Jaishankar sought to avoid a possible pique with the Trump administration while still conveying his displeasure to both Washington and the Indian public.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Indian National Congress party, the country\u2019s main political opposition, bluntly stated that Landau\u2019s remarks were \u201cnot only insulting but also anti-India<\/a>\u201d in a post on its official social media accounts. The party\u2019s reaction wasn\u2019t surprising, in part stemming from a degree of reflexive anti-Americanism that has long strained the party\u2019s political culture.<\/p>\n But the comments also reflected the misgivings of many in the Congress party<\/a> who believe that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s government has been too eager to engage with the Trump administration and failed to protect India\u2019s national interests\u2014most notably in the recently concluded trade agreement with the United States.<\/p>\n A day before Landau\u2019s speech, a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian naval vessel<\/a>, the IRIS Dena<\/em>, off the coast of Sri Lanka, killing at least 87 people. The warship was returning to Iran following a multilateral naval exercise hosted by India that included 18 ships from countries friendly to New Delhi. Segments of Indian civil society reacted harshly. Some argued that the episode punctured Modi\u2019s claims<\/a> that India was a net security provider in its littoral waters.<\/p>\n The ship was in international waters, and it appears the U.S. torpedo attack<\/a> did not violate international law. But that it happened when the ship was headed home from a major exercise\u2014in which the United States itself was a participant\u2014has upset many people in India. The Congress party took Modi to task<\/a> for his failure to condemn the sinking of the Iranian vessel.<\/p>\n Apart from the opposition sensing an opportunity, there are more compelling reasons why the Indian government cannot remain neutral amid the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran. India has a substantial domestic Shiite population<\/a> who are aggrieved<\/a> in the wake of Shiite cleric and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei\u2019s assassination. India also receives substantial remittances<\/a> from expatriate workers in the Middle East, including Iran, and imports a significant amount of oil from the region.<\/p>\n Against that backdrop, it\u2019s no wonder U.S.-India relations are fraught. Landau\u2019s comments stand in striking contrast to even past Republican administrations: Under President George W. Bush, when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited New Delhi, she stated that the United States was interested in seeing India rise as a great power.<\/p>\n Subsequent leaders did not back away from this goal\u2014and Trump did little to slow the progress in the bilateral relationship during his first term. On the contrary, the two sides signed a key defense agreement<\/a> that had been held up for some time. Trump also seemed to develop a personal rapport with Modi, holding a rally<\/a> with him in Houston, Texas, during a state visit. Modi reciprocated<\/a> this warmth when Trump visited India in February 2020.<\/p>\n As a result, Landau\u2019s speech was not received well in New Delhi, and the sinking of the Iranian warship has further inflamed these sentiments. Given India\u2019s long-standing efforts to maintain a semblance of normal relations with Iran while bolstering its ties to the United States, the current moment is an important setback. India\u2019s nonaligned foreign policy, which seeks to maintain sound relations with a range of international partners, has now suffered a body blow.<\/p>\n It is obviously in the interest of the Modi government to adopt a nonconfrontational approach toward the United States\u2014it can\u2019t afford to alienate the Trump administration. Far too much is at stake, from trade and investment to defense ties. New Delhi\u2019s recent decisions demonstrated a willingness to negotiate and compromise, resulting in a February trade agreement. (The eventual fate of the accord, however, is now in abeyance after the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Trump\u2019s tariffs.)<\/p>\n Still, the Modi government faces increasingly vocal domestic dissent when it comes to working with the Trump administration. In the past, it could fend off these criticisms and pursue policies that it deemed to be beneficial. However, criticism is growing louder\u2014and it is not confined to the opposition benches. Even before the Iran war, influential and relatively nonpartisan Indian politicians were sounding the alarm about the downturn in U.S.-India ties.<\/p>\n U.S.-India relations, which entered troubled waters after Trump imposed harsh tariffs last year, may now face more turbulence. Key members of India\u2019s attentive public are now explicitly warning Modi<\/a> that his government\u2019s unwillingness to express its reservations about the war against Iran could jeopardize India\u2019s enduring national interests.<\/p>\n It is too early to say if these misgivings will lead to a permanent drift in bilateral ties. The Trump administration\u2019s seeming indifference to what India deems to be its legitimate foreign-policy concerns\u2014not to mention a rebuke to its quest for great-power status\u2014seems to show that decades of bipartisan efforts to forge a strong partnership could now be at needless risk.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n