{"id":4086,"date":"2026-03-02T09:32:49","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T09:32:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/?p=4086"},"modified":"2026-03-02T09:32:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T09:32:49","slug":"someone-made-553k-on-a-polymarket-bet-on-khameneis-death-npr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/?p=4086","title":{"rendered":"Someone made $553K on a Polymarket bet on Khamenei&#8217;s death : NPR"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"storytext\">\n<div id=\"resg-s1-112130\" class=\"bucketwrap image large\">\n<div class=\"imagewrap has-source-dimensions\" data-crop-type=\"\" style=\"&#10;        --source-width: 6000;&#10;        --source-height: 4000;&#10;    \">\n        <picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/400\/quality\/85\/format\/webp\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 400w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/600\/quality\/85\/format\/webp\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 600w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/800\/quality\/85\/format\/webp\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 800w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/900\/quality\/85\/format\/webp\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 900w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/1200\/quality\/85\/format\/webp\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 1200w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/1600\/quality\/85\/format\/webp\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 1600w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/1800\/quality\/85\/format\/webp\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 1800w\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1025px) 650px, calc(100vw - 30px)\" class=\"img\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/400\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 400w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/600\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 600w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/800\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 800w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/900\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 900w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/1200\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 1200w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/1600\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 1600w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/1800\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg 1800w\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/6000x4000+0+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3e%2F8a%2F456e888d415ea2821f049c8e4eae%2Fgettyimages-2263725030.jpg\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1025px) 650px, calc(100vw - 30px)\" class=\"img\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"\/>\n        <\/picture>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"credit-caption\">\n<div class=\"caption-wrap\">\n<div class=\"caption\" aria-label=\"Image caption\">\n<p>\n                Smoke plumes rise following missile strikes in Tehran on March 1, 2026. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, killing Iran&#8217;s supreme leader and top military leaders, prompting authorities to retaliate with strikes on Israel and US bases across the Gulf.<br \/>\n                <b class=\"credit\" aria-label=\"Image credit\"><\/p>\n<p>                    Atta Kenare\/AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>                <\/b><br \/>\n                <b class=\"hide-caption\"><b>hide caption<\/b><\/b>\n            <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>            <b class=\"toggle-caption\"><b>toggle caption<\/b><\/b>\n    <\/div>\n<p>    <span class=\"credit\" aria-label=\"Image credit\"><\/p>\n<p>        Atta Kenare\/AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>    <\/span>\n<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>An <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/@Magamyman\" target=\"_blank\">account<\/a> trading under the username &#8220;Magamyman&#8221; made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran&#8217;s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/02\/28\/1123499337\/iran-israel-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-killed\" target=\"_blank\">an Israeli strike killed him<\/a> on Saturday.<\/p>\n<div id=\"resnx-s1-5731568-100\" class=\"bucketwrap internallink insettwocolumn inset2col \">\n<div class=\"bucket img\">\n                  <a class=\"imagewrap\" id=\"featuredStackSquareImagenx-s1-5718399\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/03\/01\/nx-s1-5718399\/trumps-big-bet-on-prediction-markets\" data-metrics-ga4=\"{&quot;category&quot;:&quot;recirculation&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:&quot;story_recirculation_click&quot;,&quot;clickType&quot;:&quot;inset box&quot;,&quot;clickUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.npr.org\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/01\\\/nx-s1-5718399\\\/trumps-big-bet-on-prediction-markets&quot;}\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3000x3000+0+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8a%2F43%2F67aae53f491f94f9ee4f44777436%2F87a7011d-773d-49ee-be5d-c88d486d4dc9.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3000x3000+0+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8a%2F43%2F67aae53f491f94f9ee4f44777436%2F87a7011d-773d-49ee-be5d-c88d486d4dc9.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3000x3000+0+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8a%2F43%2F67aae53f491f94f9ee4f44777436%2F87a7011d-773d-49ee-be5d-c88d486d4dc9.jpg\" data-format=\"webp\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3000x3000+0+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8a%2F43%2F67aae53f491f94f9ee4f44777436%2F87a7011d-773d-49ee-be5d-c88d486d4dc9.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3000x3000+0+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8a%2F43%2F67aae53f491f94f9ee4f44777436%2F87a7011d-773d-49ee-be5d-c88d486d4dc9.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3000x3000+0+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8a%2F43%2F67aae53f491f94f9ee4f44777436%2F87a7011d-773d-49ee-be5d-c88d486d4dc9.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3000x3000+0+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8a%2F43%2F67aae53f491f94f9ee4f44777436%2F87a7011d-773d-49ee-be5d-c88d486d4dc9.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3000x3000+0+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8a%2F43%2F67aae53f491f94f9ee4f44777436%2F87a7011d-773d-49ee-be5d-c88d486d4dc9.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" alt=\"Bet on Anything, Everywhere, All at Once\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/a>         <\/p>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKETBLOCK\" -->\n      <\/div>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKET IMG\" -->\n   <\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RESNX-S1-5731568-100\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>The trades drew scrutiny from members of Congress and critics of prediction markets, who say the platforms invite people with access to classified information to profit on lethal military operations. On <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/us-strikes-iran-by\" target=\"_blank\">Polymarket alone<\/a>, half-a-billion dollars was traded over when exactly U.S. forces would drop bombs on Iran.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s insane this is legal,&#8221; Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ChrisMurphyCT\/status\/2027899652226326800\" target=\"_blank\">wrote<\/a> on X. &#8220;People around Trump are profiting off war and death,&#8221; he said, adding he plans to introduce legislation &#8220;asap&#8221; to outlaw this kind of activity.<\/p>\n<aside id=\"ad-backstage-wrap\" class=\"ad-wrap backstage\" aria-label=\"advertisement\">\n<\/aside>\n<div id=\"resnx-s1-5731568-101\" class=\"bucketwrap internallink insettwocolumn inset2col \">\n<div class=\"bucket img\">\n                  <a class=\"imagewrap\" id=\"featuredStackSquareImagenx-s1-5667232\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/01\/05\/nx-s1-5667232\/polymarket-maduro-bet-insider-trading\" data-metrics-ga4=\"{&quot;category&quot;:&quot;recirculation&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:&quot;story_recirculation_click&quot;,&quot;clickType&quot;:&quot;inset box&quot;,&quot;clickUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.npr.org\\\/2026\\\/01\\\/05\\\/nx-s1-5667232\\\/polymarket-maduro-bet-insider-trading&quot;}\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3866x3866+1622+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fee%2F1c%2Feb14e37e48f2bb8437b351d2092d%2Fgettyimages-2254212710.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3866x3866+1622+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fee%2F1c%2Feb14e37e48f2bb8437b351d2092d%2Fgettyimages-2254212710.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3866x3866+1622+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fee%2F1c%2Feb14e37e48f2bb8437b351d2092d%2Fgettyimages-2254212710.jpg\" data-format=\"webp\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3866x3866+1622+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fee%2F1c%2Feb14e37e48f2bb8437b351d2092d%2Fgettyimages-2254212710.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3866x3866+1622+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fee%2F1c%2Feb14e37e48f2bb8437b351d2092d%2Fgettyimages-2254212710.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3866x3866+1622+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fee%2F1c%2Feb14e37e48f2bb8437b351d2092d%2Fgettyimages-2254212710.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3866x3866+1622+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fee%2F1c%2Feb14e37e48f2bb8437b351d2092d%2Fgettyimages-2254212710.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3866x3866+1622+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fee%2F1c%2Feb14e37e48f2bb8437b351d2092d%2Fgettyimages-2254212710.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" alt=\"A supporter of ousted Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro carry his portrait during a rally outside the National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026.\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/a>         <\/p>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKETBLOCK\" -->\n      <\/div>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKET IMG\" -->\n   <\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RESNX-S1-5731568-101\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>The White House denied anyone in Trump&#8217;s orbit was behind the lucrative trades.<\/p>\n<p>The Trump family, however, does have ties to Polymarket. Donald Trump Jr., the president&#8217;s son, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/polymarket-receives-strategic-investment-from-1789-capital-and-welcomes-donald-trump-jr-to-advisory-board-302538997.html\" target=\"_blank\">is an adviser to Polymarket<\/a> and his venture capital firm 1789 Capital has invested millions into the controversial business. The Trump administration has dropped two federal investigations into Polymarket that were opened by President Joe Biden&#8217;s officials.<\/p>\n<div id=\"resg-s1-112117\" class=\"bucketwrap image large\">\n<div class=\"imagewrap has-source-dimensions\" data-crop-type=\"\" style=\"&#10;        --source-width: 1150;&#10;        --source-height: 700;&#10;    \">\n        <picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/400\/quality\/85\/format\/webp\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png 400w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/600\/quality\/85\/format\/webp\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png 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400w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/600\/quality\/85\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png 600w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/800\/quality\/85\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png 800w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/900\/quality\/85\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png 900w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/1200\/quality\/85\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png 1200w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/1600\/quality\/85\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png 1600w,&#10;https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/1800\/quality\/85\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png 1800w\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1025px) 650px, calc(100vw - 30px)\" class=\"img\" type=\"image\/png\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/1100\/quality\/50\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1150x700+0+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F75%2Fc4%2F3fe8036947a9981f985c8b632567%2Fmagamyman.png\" class=\"img\" alt=\"A screenshot of a Polymarket trader's profile page, showing successful bets on the timing of a U.S. strike on Iran.\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>\n        <\/picture>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"credit-caption\">\n<div class=\"caption-wrap\">\n<div class=\"caption\" aria-label=\"Image caption\">\n<p>\n                A screenshot of a Polymarket trader&#8217;s profile page, showing successful bets on the timing of a U.S. strike on Iran.<br \/>\n                <b class=\"credit\" aria-label=\"Image credit\"><\/p>\n<p>                    NPR<\/p>\n<p>                <\/b><br \/>\n                <b class=\"hide-caption\"><b>hide caption<\/b><\/b>\n            <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>            <b class=\"toggle-caption\"><b>toggle caption<\/b><\/b>\n    <\/div>\n<p>    <span class=\"credit\" aria-label=\"Image credit\"><\/p>\n<p>        NPR<\/p>\n<p>    <\/span>\n<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>It&#8217;s the latest episode igniting debate about how government and military insiders can monetize state secrets.<\/p>\n<div id=\"resnx-s1-5731568-102\" class=\"bucketwrap internallink insettwocolumn inset2col \">\n<div class=\"bucket img\">\n                  <a class=\"imagewrap\" id=\"featuredStackSquareImagenx-s1-5712801\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/02\/12\/nx-s1-5712801\/polymarket-bets-traders-israel-military\" data-metrics-ga4=\"{&quot;category&quot;:&quot;recirculation&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:&quot;story_recirculation_click&quot;,&quot;clickType&quot;:&quot;inset box&quot;,&quot;clickUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.npr.org\\\/2026\\\/02\\\/12\\\/nx-s1-5712801\\\/polymarket-bets-traders-israel-military&quot;}\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/427x427+264+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F35%2F70%2F93440317433b985a8a5ef4882054%2Fpolymarket-charged.png\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/427x427+264+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F35%2F70%2F93440317433b985a8a5ef4882054%2Fpolymarket-charged.png\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/427x427+264+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F35%2F70%2F93440317433b985a8a5ef4882054%2Fpolymarket-charged.png\" data-format=\"webp\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/427x427+264+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F35%2F70%2F93440317433b985a8a5ef4882054%2Fpolymarket-charged.png\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/427x427+264+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F35%2F70%2F93440317433b985a8a5ef4882054%2Fpolymarket-charged.png\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/427x427+264+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F35%2F70%2F93440317433b985a8a5ef4882054%2Fpolymarket-charged.png\" data-format=\"png\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/png\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/427x427+264+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/png\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F35%2F70%2F93440317433b985a8a5ef4882054%2Fpolymarket-charged.png\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/427x427+264+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F35%2F70%2F93440317433b985a8a5ef4882054%2Fpolymarket-charged.png\" data-format=\"png\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" alt=\"In June, an account on Polymarket correctly predicted military events between Israel and Iran that paid out about $150,000.\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/a>         <\/p>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKETBLOCK\" -->\n      <\/div>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKET IMG\" -->\n   <\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RESNX-S1-5731568-102\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>In January, an anonymous trader <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/01\/05\/nx-s1-5667232\/polymarket-maduro-bet-insider-trading\" target=\"_blank\">made<\/a> hundreds of thousands of dollars for placing suspiciously well-timed bets ahead of the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro. A month later, authorities in Israel <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/02\/12\/nx-s1-5712801\/polymarket-bets-traders-israel-military\" target=\"_blank\">charged<\/a> two people for using classified information to place bets on Polymarket about upcoming attacks on Iran when the countries fought a 12-day war last June.<\/p>\n<p>The millions flowing into the market related to the toppling of Iran&#8217;s supreme leader were made on an overseas exchange operated by Polymarket, meaning it is outside the reach of regulators in Washington.<\/p>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RESNX-S1-5731568-103\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>The Trump administration has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/polymarket-receives-cftc-approval-of-amended-order-of-designation-enabling-intermediated-us-market-access-302625833.html\" target=\"_blank\">granted approval<\/a> for Polymarket to open a U.S.-based platform, but it has yet to fully publicly launch. Most American traders who use Polymarket access the site through a virtual private network that shields a user&#8217;s identity and location.<\/p>\n<p>Most prediction markets, which have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/01\/17\/nx-s1-5672615\/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-market-boom-traders-slang-glossary\" target=\"_blank\">surged<\/a> in popularity in recent months, are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The agency views this new-fangled form of betting a &#8220;futures contract,&#8221; not a type of gambling.<\/p>\n<aside id=\"ad-secondary-wrap\" class=\"ad-wrap secondary\" aria-label=\"advertisement\">\n<\/aside>\n<div id=\"resnx-s1-5731568-104\" class=\"bucketwrap internallink insettwocolumn inset2col \">\n<div class=\"bucket img\">\n                  <a class=\"imagewrap\" id=\"featuredStackSquareImagenx-s1-5647749\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2025\/12\/23\/nx-s1-5647749\/rise-of-prediction-markets\" data-metrics-ga4=\"{&quot;category&quot;:&quot;recirculation&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:&quot;story_recirculation_click&quot;,&quot;clickType&quot;:&quot;inset box&quot;,&quot;clickUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.npr.org\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/23\\\/nx-s1-5647749\\\/rise-of-prediction-markets&quot;}\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2000x2000+500+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F66%2Fa4%2Fe058a9bf4c49b1a062fbda23916f%2Fap25308710677808.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2000x2000+500+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F66%2Fa4%2Fe058a9bf4c49b1a062fbda23916f%2Fap25308710677808.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2000x2000+500+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F66%2Fa4%2Fe058a9bf4c49b1a062fbda23916f%2Fap25308710677808.jpg\" data-format=\"webp\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2000x2000+500+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F66%2Fa4%2Fe058a9bf4c49b1a062fbda23916f%2Fap25308710677808.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2000x2000+500+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F66%2Fa4%2Fe058a9bf4c49b1a062fbda23916f%2Fap25308710677808.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2000x2000+500+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F66%2Fa4%2Fe058a9bf4c49b1a062fbda23916f%2Fap25308710677808.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2000x2000+500+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F66%2Fa4%2Fe058a9bf4c49b1a062fbda23916f%2Fap25308710677808.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2000x2000+500+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F66%2Fa4%2Fe058a9bf4c49b1a062fbda23916f%2Fap25308710677808.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" alt=\"A billboard in New York City shows a Kalshi advertisement. It reads: Mamdani 92%, Cuomo 8%.  \" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/a>         <\/p>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKETBLOCK\" -->\n      <\/div>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKET IMG\" -->\n   <\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RESNX-S1-5731568-104\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>Under U.S. commodity trading laws, making trades based on death and war are illegal, since those kinds of bets create a financial reward for violence, human suffering and geopolitical instability.<\/p>\n<p>This constraint was on display over the weekend in the way another major prediction market, Kalshi, responded to a market tied to when Khamenei would be out, a prospect that <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxkhameneiout\/ali-khamenei-out\/kxkhameneiout-akha\" target=\"_blank\">attracted more than<\/a> $54 million in trades.<\/p>\n<div id=\"resnx-s1-5731568-105\" class=\"bucketwrap internallink insettwocolumn inset2col \">\n<div class=\"bucket img\">\n                  <a class=\"imagewrap\" id=\"featuredStackSquareImagenx-s1-5716224\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/02\/17\/nx-s1-5716224\/kalshi-polymarket-super-bowl-alpha\" data-metrics-ga4=\"{&quot;category&quot;:&quot;recirculation&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:&quot;story_recirculation_click&quot;,&quot;clickType&quot;:&quot;inset box&quot;,&quot;clickUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.npr.org\\\/2026\\\/02\\\/17\\\/nx-s1-5716224\\\/kalshi-polymarket-super-bowl-alpha&quot;}\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3776x3776+2020+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2b%2F4d%2F4f71190c4eb0bad752b0e1b2bbd3%2Fgettyimages-2260097704.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3776x3776+2020+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2b%2F4d%2F4f71190c4eb0bad752b0e1b2bbd3%2Fgettyimages-2260097704.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3776x3776+2020+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2b%2F4d%2F4f71190c4eb0bad752b0e1b2bbd3%2Fgettyimages-2260097704.jpg\" data-format=\"webp\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3776x3776+2020+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2b%2F4d%2F4f71190c4eb0bad752b0e1b2bbd3%2Fgettyimages-2260097704.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3776x3776+2020+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2b%2F4d%2F4f71190c4eb0bad752b0e1b2bbd3%2Fgettyimages-2260097704.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3776x3776+2020+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2b%2F4d%2F4f71190c4eb0bad752b0e1b2bbd3%2Fgettyimages-2260097704.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3776x3776+2020+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2b%2F4d%2F4f71190c4eb0bad752b0e1b2bbd3%2Fgettyimages-2260097704.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/3776x3776+2020+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2b%2F4d%2F4f71190c4eb0bad752b0e1b2bbd3%2Fgettyimages-2260097704.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" alt=\"Standing in front of an electronic keyboard set up on a football field, singer Charlie Puth performs the national anthem ahead of this year's Super Bowl on February 8.\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/a>         <\/p>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKETBLOCK\" -->\n      <\/div>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKET IMG\" -->\n   <\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RESNX-S1-5731568-105\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>When Khamenei&#8217;s death was confirmed, those who placed bets on Kalshi on the leader&#8217;s ouster expected a payout, but it never happened. Instead, trading on the market was paused while the company conducted a &#8220;further review of the situation.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Later, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/mansourtarek_\/status\/2027924240926638323\" target=\"_blank\">wrote on X<\/a> that the company would be refunding fees collected on the Khamenei market.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We don&#8217;t list markets directly tied to death,&#8221; Mansour wrote. &#8220;When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In messages sent out to users who placed bets before and after the Iranian leader&#8217;s death, Kalshi said it will issue partial refunds amounting to the last traded price before his death was confirmed, so it did not run afoul of U.S. laws prohibiting markets where people can profit from death and assassinations. <\/p>\n<p>Kalshi&#8217;s decision created an uproar among traders, who felt like they had been duped.<\/p>\n<p>They were all the more infuriated having watched the company heavily promote the Khamenei market for days on social media.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Getting rugged on a 100% correct prediction because of a fine-print &#8216;death carveout&#8217; is wild,&#8221; said a user who goes by &#8220;pepe&#8221; on the online forum Discord for Kalshi traders. &#8220;Centralized oracles will always bend to compliance over reality.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Others were less generous, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/search?q=kalshi%20scam&amp;src=typed_query\" target=\"_blank\">deriding<\/a> Kalshi&#8217;s actions in the Khamenei market as evidence that the platform is &#8220;a scam.&#8221;<\/p>\n<aside id=\"ad-third-wrap\" class=\"ad-wrap third\" aria-label=\"advertisement\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>Amanda Fischer, a former official at the Securities and Exchange Commission who now works at the financial reform group Better Markets, told NPR that Congress needs to act to stop &#8220;perverse incentives and chaos caused by betting on death and destruction.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>She added: &#8220;Prediction markets are promoting opportunities to bet on events that can only be seen as a proxy for war or assassination. The confusion and outcry over how the Khamenei-related wagers would resolve underscores that this betting market shouldn&#8217;t exist in the first place.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/03\/01\/nx-s1-5731568\/polymarket-trade-iran-supreme-leader-killing\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Smoke plumes rise following missile strikes in Tehran on March 1, 2026. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, killing Iran&#8217;s supreme leader and top military leaders, prompting authorities to retaliate with strikes on Israel and US bases across the Gulf. Atta Kenare\/AFP via Getty Images hide caption toggle caption [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4087,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-4086","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4086"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4086\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4087"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}