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Shortly after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in January, President Donald Trump\u2019s administration turned its gaze to the Cuban regime. In an executive order, Trump\u00a0declared a national emergency<\/a>\u00a0over what he called an \u201cunusual and extraordinary threat\u201d posed by Cuba. He accused the island nation of harboring Russian spies and welcoming terrorist groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah.<\/p>\n The executive order contained a pointed threat: Countries that continue to send oil to Cuba would face punishing tariffs. Given that the United States had already halted shipments from Venezuela, the threat was directed at Cuba\u2019s only other major oil supplier\u2014Mexico. Trump\u2019s efforts to choke Havana into regime change have forced Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum into a difficult balancing act. She is now caught between a historic allegiance to Cuba and the need to placate a White House intent on expanding its power across the region at any cost.<\/p>\n For much of last year, Mexico\u00a0sent<\/a>\u00a0roughly 22,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba, though that number fell to around 7,000 barrels per day after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City<\/a> in September. (Prior to the U.S. blockade of Venezuela, the Maduro government was averaging 35,000 barrels per day<\/a> to Cuba.) By the time that Trump issued his executive order, Mexico had halted all oil shipments to Cuba, a move that Sheinbaum sought to cast<\/a>\u00a0as a \u201csovereign decision,\u201d despite\u00a0reports<\/a>\u00a0that the pause was out of fear of U.S. reprisals.<\/p>\n Despite Mexico\u2019s pause on oil shipments, Trump upped the ante with his tariff threat, which appeared to blindside Sheinbaum. She came out swinging the next day,\u00a0warning<\/a>\u00a0of a \u201chumanitarian crisis\u201d in Cuba, which already faced rolling blackouts and severe fuel shortages.\u00a0Sheinbaum vowed that Mexico would \u201cprovide humanitarian aid to the Cuban people \u2026 in line with what has historically been our tradition of solidarity and international respect.\u201d<\/p>\n The situation in Cuba has grown more dire<\/a> since Trump choked off its oil supply. The government is\u00a0rationing energy<\/a>, some international airlines have\u00a0suspended flights<\/a>\u00a0to the island, and at least one public hospital has\u00a0halted surgeries<\/a>\u00a0and transportation of patients from other areas due to lack of fuel.<\/p>\n Sheinbaum has warned the United States that it \u201ccannot strangle<\/a>\u201d the Cuban people, but she has ultimately bowed to Trump\u2019s demands. In mid-February, two Mexican Navy ships arrived<\/a> in Cuba with more than 800 tons of humanitarian aid but no oil. Sheinbaum officially confirmed<\/a>\u00a0this month that oil shipments remained \u201con hold\u201d as the country sought \u201cto avoid any negative impact on Mexico.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cSheinbaum is trying to play a very delicate game,\u201d said William LeoGrande, a professor of government at American University. \u201cAsserting Mexico\u2019s national sovereignty, maintaining its relationship with Cuba, but also not antagonizing Trump to the point where it impacts the bilateral relationship.\u201d<\/p>\n The bilateral relationship<\/span> between the United States and Mexico is under intense pressure, thanks largely to Trump\u2019s repeated\u00a0threats<\/a>\u00a0to use U.S. military force on Mexican soil against its powerful drug cartels. Sheinbaum has rebuffed the idea, and Mexico has gone to great lengths to appease the White House on security and migration policy, sending\u00a0thousands of troops<\/a>\u00a0to the U.S. border and\u00a0handing over<\/a> nearly 100 cartel members to face justice in the United States.<\/p>\n The lethal military raid on Feb. 22 against the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Nemesio Rub\u00e9n Oseguera Cervantes, was Mexico\u2019s latest and arguably most dramatic attempt to prove that it can tackle cartels on its own. (U.S. intelligence was critical to the operation.)<\/p>\n With discussions over the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement underway<\/a>, Sheinbaum will likely be even more conscious of maintaining a good relationship with Washington.\u00a0Reports emerged<\/a>\u00a0this month that Trump was considering exiting the trade deal altogether, leaving the three countries without a free trade agreement for the first time since 1994.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s an absolute dilemma, because on the one hand, she needs the USMCA and she needs a good negotiation \u2026 it\u2019s indispensable for Mexico,\u201d said Ricardo Pascoe Pierce, a former Mexican ambassador to Cuba. \u201cOn the other hand, she\u2019s the best friend of a true adversary of the United States, Cuba.\u201d<\/p>\n Sheinbaum\u2019s outspoken allegiance to Cuba is partly historical. After Cuba\u2019s 1959 revolution, Mexico was one of the only nations in the region to maintain relations<\/a> with Havana. Most bowed to the United States and severed ties and trade with Cuba. In the wake of the Cuban missile crisis and a vote to expel Cuba from the Organization of American States in 1962, Mexico became, for a time, the only Latin American country to maintain full diplomatic ties<\/a> with the Caribbean nation.<\/p>\n Though Mexico became increasingly economically and politically intertwined with the United States in recent decades, it managed to maintain its close relationship with Cuba, in part to demonstrate a measure of autonomy.\u00a0As well as supplying oil, Mexico has regularly sent aid to the island and has hired thousands<\/a> of Cuban doctors to fill specialist shortages.<\/p>\n But the Mexico-Cuba relationship has had its ups and downs. After the election of conservative President Vicente Fox in 2000, ties became strained<\/a>, with Mexico repeatedly voting at the U.N. Human Rights Commission for resolutions that were critical of the Cuban regime. Bilateral relations hit a low in 2004, when Mexico withdrew its ambassador to Havana and expelled Cuban diplomats.<\/p>\n Under Fox\u2019s successor, President Felipe Calder\u00f3n, tensions eased. Though Calder\u00f3n\u2014also a conservative\u2014maintained contact with Cuban dissidents and called for the release of political prisoners, he signed an agreement condemning the U.S. trade embargo and visited the island toward the end of his term. Relations warmed further under the center-left government of President Enrique Pe\u00f1a Nieto, who visited Cuba twice, including to attend Fidel Castro\u2019s funeral, and pardoned<\/a> 70 percent of Cuban debt to Mexico\u2019s national oil company.<\/p>\n The Mexico-Cuba relationship seemed to peak after the 2018 election of Sheinbaum\u2019s mentor, President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador. L\u00f3pez Obrador embraced Cuba more than any previous Mexican leader, going so far as to\u00a0award<\/a>\u00a0Cuban President Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel with the Order of the Aztec Eagle, the highest honor for a foreign head of state, in recognition<\/a> of the Cubans\u2019 efforts \u201cto assert their political independence by confronting the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s pro-Cuban sentiment remains entrenched in the Morena party that he founded, placing additional pressure on Sheinbaum to maintain support for the country.<\/p>\n \u201cThere are hard-line factions in Morena for whom the relationship with Cuba is historically, symbolically, and sometimes even personally important,\u201d said Blanca Heredia, a Mexican political scientist.<\/p>\n Critics say Sheinbaum\u2019s support falls in all three categories.<\/p>\n \u201cShe devoutly believes that Cuba must be helped, not for humanitarian reasons, but out of sympathy and ideological affinity. She\u2019s a great admirer of the Cuban Revolution and the Cuban regime,\u201d said Jorge Casta\u00f1eda, the Mexican secretary of foreign affairs under Fox.<\/p>\n But such claims from the right are at odds with Sheinbaum\u2019s publicly expressed views, which have framed Mexico\u2019s support for Cuba in historical terms. \u201cYou can support the Cuban regime or not, but the Cuban people are the Cuban people,\u201d she said this month. \u201cThere has always been support for Cuba, since the revolution.\u201d<\/p>\n Under Sheinbaum, Mexico has offered to host negotiations between Cuba and the United States to resolve the latest crisis. D\u00edaz-Canel has indicated<\/a> that Havana is willing to enter a dialogue with Washington, \u201cbut without pressure or preconditions.\u201d\u00a0What those negotiations would look like remains unclear, as Cuba hawks such as Rubio\u00a0insist<\/a>\u00a0that regime change would be \u201cof great benefit to the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n Cuba might be willing to talk, but it\u2019s unlikely that D\u00edaz-Canel or the regime writ large would step down as a result.<\/p>\n \u201cIt has never been in the DNA of the Cuban government to want to negotiate their own exit from power,\u201d said Michael Bustamante, the head of Cuban and Cuban American studies at the University of Miami. \u201cI\u2019m sure they don\u2019t want to do that now.\u201d<\/p>\n Instead, the Cuban regime might offer concessions<\/a> to Trump, such as limiting emigration, accepting deportees from the United States, expanding the private sector, closing Chinese and Russian intelligence facilities, or even releasing some political prisoners.<\/p>\n For now, though, both nations are engaged in what Bustamante calls a \u201cvery dangerous game of chicken.\u201d The United States continues to pressure the Cuban government economically, causing immense pain to its people, while the regime refuses to give in. The question then becomes: How long can both sides hold out, at the risk of generating a humanitarian collapse?<\/p>\n Sheinbaum wants to avoid <\/span>a disastrous scenario at all costs, not only because of her country\u2019s historic support for Cuba but also because a humanitarian crisis on the island would likely affect Mexico even more than the United States. \u201cDestabilization in Cuba would generate waves of migration\u201d to Mexico, Heredia said. If the regime loses its typically tight grip on drug smuggling<\/a>, \u201cthat\u2019s not good for Mexico either,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n To prevent catastrophe, Sheinbaum is firmly pushing for an agreement that might halt the island\u2019s total humanitarian collapse. On Feb. 12, she said that Mexico was \u201cdoing everything possible to foster a dialogue\u201d that \u201censures Cuba can receive oil, without any country imposing sanctions.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump still has powerful cards left to play against Cuba. The United States could block remittances and even flights to the country, further cranking up economic pressure. That could leave Mexico as the only conduit for supplies and funds to Cuba. Sheinbaum has been keen to\u00a0emphasize<\/a>\u00a0that Mexico is still operating flights to Havana, opening the possibility of an air bridge for aid to the island.<\/p>\n But the United States is unlikely to stand by as its southern neighbor becomes a back channel for sanctions evasion. Unless the Cuban regime falls in short order, Trump will almost certainly apply more pressure on Mexico in his efforts to close the spigot of support for Cuba.\u00a0Trump has multiple pressure points to choose from: the tenuous future of the USMCA, the possibility of additional tariffs, and even the threat of a U.S. ground invasion.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat is Mexico going to do?\u201d Casta\u00f1eda said. \u201cThey\u2019re going to have to keep giving in on practically everything. They have no alternative.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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