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Welcome to the second pop-up edition of Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Situation Report at the 2026 Munich Security Conference. It\u2019s been an action-packed day dominated by conversations about whether the United States and Europe can hug it out and save their historic alliance.<\/p>\n Alright, here\u2019s what\u2019s on tap for the day: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio<\/strong> offers Europe a softer touch (but stays on message), NATO chief Mark Rutte<\/strong> denies that there\u2019s a disconnect with the U.S. on the Russia-Ukraine war<\/strong>, and U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham<\/strong> makes the case for regime change in Iran.<\/p>\n U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio marked Valentine\u2019s Day by trying to kiss and make up with Europe, exactly a year (almost to the minute) after U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance left many across the continent questioning their relationship with Washington.<\/p>\n The venue for both speeches was the same\u2014the main stage at the Munich Security Conference in the Bayerischer Hof Hotel\u2014but the response from the room couldn\u2019t have been more different.<\/p>\n Where Vance gobsmacked the audience in 2025 with a lecture<\/a> about Europe\u2019s retreat from \u201cshared values,\u201d Rubio spent much of his speech<\/a> appealing to the United States\u2019 and Europe\u2019s shared history, culture, and heritage (including three mentions of Christianity) and telling Europeans that Washington wants to work together with them to \u201crenew the greatest civilization in human history.\u201d<\/p>\n At the first-ever Munich Security Conference in 1963, held against the backdrop of the Cold War and the Cuban missile crisis, the United States and Europe \u201cwere unified not just by what we were fighting against; we were unified by what we were fighting for,\u201d Rubio said. \u201cAnd together, Europe and America prevailed and a continent was rebuilt.\u201d<\/p>\n It was a message Europe really wanted to hear after spending two days in Munich (and hundreds more before) fretting about the trans-Atlantic alliance. \u201cIn a time of headlines heralding the end of the trans-Atlantic era, let it be known and clear to all that this is neither our goal nor our wish\u2014because for us Americans, our home may be in the Western Hemisphere, but we will always be a child of Europe,\u201d Rubio added, in one of the biggest applause lines of his speech.<\/p>\n Many, including conference chairman Wolfgang Ischinger, who introduced Rubio, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who spoke shortly after him, said they felt \u201creassured\u201d by the speech.<\/p>\n But Rubio also dedicated much of his address to reiterating points Vance made a year earlier, including warnings about the \u201ccrisis\u201d of \u201cmass migration\u201d and the \u201cclimate cult\u201d that has imposed \u201cimpoverishing\u201d energy policies on Western countries. He also underlined the Trump administration\u2019s retreat from multilateralism, calling the rules-based global order that Washington put in place an \u201coverused term\u201d and a \u201cdelusion.\u201d<\/p>\n Much of it was old wine in a new bottle, slightly more chilled\u2014a fact not lost on European officials we spoke to.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen you talk about content, what Mr. Vance said and what Mr. Rubio said an hour ago was pretty much the same,\u201d Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken told SitRep in an interview shortly after Rubio\u2019s speech. Though Francken added that Rubio\u2019s message was delivered \u201cin a very diplomatic way\u201d and was \u201cmore about our heritage, our bonds, so it was a very emotional speech, and it touched a lot of people in the room\u2014and in Europe\u2014really to the heart.\u201d<\/p>\n Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide also recognized \u201cthe MAGA program\u201d running through Rubio\u2019s speech. \u201cBut [Rubio was] also basically saying: \u2018We\u2019re still here, and it\u2019s not really America alone.\u2019 So that\u2019s my reading, but some damage has been done,\u201d Eide added.<\/p>\n Rupture or rebuilding?<\/strong> In assessing the extent of that damage, Francken and Eide both pointed not to the speeches by Vance or Rubio, but to the one U.S. President Donald Trump gave in Davos last month in which he mused about a U.S. takeover of Greenland. That \u201cwas quite the shock to the trans-Atlantic family,\u201d said Eide, who was in the room for that speech.<\/p>\n But Eide said that Europe\u2019s assertiveness, which got Trump to back down from the Greenland threats, set a tone for the relationship that better prepared the continent to hear Rubio\u2019s message this week. \u201cThe Europeans and Canada came to the position that now we have to say, \u2018Enough is enough,\u2019 and there was actually quite a lot of pride in finally saying that we\u2019re allies, we want to remain allies, but there are certain things you simply don\u2019t do,\u201d the Norwegian minister added.<\/p>\n There also appears to be a desire in Europe to move forward from lamenting the breakdown of the global order, as illustrated by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Saturday. \u201cInstead of a moment of rupture, we must make it one of radical renewal,\u201d Starmer said, somewhat subtweeting the words of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s own viral Davos speech<\/a>. \u201cI\u2019m talking about a vision of European security and greater European autonomy that does not herald U.S. withdrawal but answers the call for more burden sharing in full and remakes the ties that have served us so well,\u201d Starmer added.<\/p>\n That European assertiveness, bookended by the Vance and Rubio speeches and pushed into overdrive by Trump\u2019s, appears here to stay and a baseline for the trans-Atlantic future. \u201cEuropeans went from a state of shock to a state of action, and the coalition of the willing was basically formed in the days after Vance\u2019s speech,\u201d said Eide, referring to a coalition of countries committed to supporting Ukraine. A year after that shock, \u201cthere is now a much more united Europe,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Or, as Francken put it more bluntly: \u201cWe need to step up in Europe. We can do it. We\u2019re not a bunch of losers.\u201d<\/p>\n Elbridge Colby, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy and the second-most-watched U.S. official in Munich, made his own attempt to reassure the Europeans in an onstage interview<\/a> with FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal later on Saturday afternoon. Trump \u201chas shown in places like Venezuela and in Operation Midnight Hammer that he is prepared to use military force decisively to back up his pledges to work with our allies,\u201d Colby said, when asked if the United States would come to the aid of a NATO ally who was attacked. (Operation Midnight Hammer is the code name for the U.S. military strikes on Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities in June 2025.) \u201cBut we\u2019re putting things on a more sustainable basis,\u201d Colby added.<\/p>\n What should be high on your radar, if it isn\u2019t already.<\/em><\/p>\n Rutte backs Trump on Russia-Ukraine.<\/strong> There\u2019s been an evident disconnect between Trump and NATO allies when it comes to the Ukraine peace negotiations. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, for example, told the conference on Friday that Moscow \u201cis not yet willing to talk seriously.\u201d That same day, Trump told reporters in Washington that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to make a deal.<\/p>\n But NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, during a roundtable discussion with journalists here in Munich on Saturday, insisted there is no such disconnect.<\/p>\n When asked by SitRep whether NATO was working to get the White House on the same page as the alliance, Rutte said, \u201cI think we\u2019re on the same page. The issue is this, that it is the Americans who have to lead this\u2014there\u2019s no other way. And when you are leading peace negotiations, it\u2019s only logical that you put pressure on everybody.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cBut at the same time, it is also clear, in all my talks with the American administration, that this is also a test. It is a test of the Russians\u2014are they serious, is Putin really willing to play ball or not? Ukraine is, we know,\u201d Rutte said. (It should be noted that in Trump\u2019s Friday comments<\/a>, the U.S. president appeared to accuse Kyiv of not being willing to play ball, saying that \u201c[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky\u2019s gonna have to get moving. Otherwise, he\u2019s going to miss a great opportunity.\u201d)<\/p>\n The NATO chief pointed to the sanctions Trump placed on Russia\u2019s two largest oil companies last October as \u201cevidence he is really putting the pressure where it is needed,\u201d adding that Trump\u2019s efforts to continue \u201cencouraging the Ukrainians\u201d are also \u201clogical.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s his [Trump\u2019s] role as the one who is with his team leading this process. And he\u2019s the only one who can do that,\u201d Rutte said. \u201cEuropeans are completely kept informed of what is happening. NATO is being kept informed. So I think that\u2019s in a good place in the sense of the process, but we are clearly not yet at a peace deal.\u201d<\/p>\n