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Welcome to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Southeast Asia Brief.<\/p>\n The highlights this week: Thailand\u2019s conservatives\u2019 big election win,<\/strong> a new leadership body<\/strong> for Myanmar\u2019s junta, and the question of whether Indonesia\u2019s steady GDP growth masks problems<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Have feedback? Hit reply to let me know your thoughts.<\/em><\/p>\n Thai Conservatives Triumph at Polls<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The results are in, and the conservatives have it. Bhumjaithai Party has emerged<\/a> as the largest party in Thailand\u2019s parliament by a wide margin, and while it fell short of a majority, it should face few problems forming a coalition.<\/p>\n The result it is epochal\u2014it is the first time since 1996 that a solidly conservative party has triumphed at the polls. The liberal reformist People\u2019s Party and the populist Thaksin dynasty vehicle Pheu Thai both fell back.<\/p>\n However, a referendum on drafting a new constitution to replace the current one\u2014which was authored by a military junta\u2014also passed handily, suggesting popular appetite for reform.<\/p>\n With nearly all votes counted<\/a>, Bhumjaithai has netted 193 seats. It has a number of options to build a coalition that would put it firmly over the 250-seat threshold needed for a majority. And while the People\u2019s Party has flagged<\/a> potential irregularities, it has accepted Bhumjaithai\u2019s victory.<\/p>\n So, how did this happen? Machiavellian politics, an adept harnessing of patronage and machine politics, and a war-related surge of patriotism all played roles. Anutin, the leader of Bhumjaithai, seized opportunities to build what in 2023 was only the third-largest party, based on a few local strongholds, into a national force.<\/p>\n First, he helped precipitate the collapse of the Pheu Thai government, abandoning it when it was rocked by a leaked phone call between<\/a> Pheu Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian leader Hun Sen in July 2025 amid a brief conflict with Cambodia.<\/p>\n Emerging from rubble as a prime minister of a minority government, he ruthlessly built up his brand<\/a>, leaning into his patriotic credentials. This, along with promises to block attempts to reform the monarchy\u2019s role in politics, allowed him to consolidate the conservative vote.<\/p>\n He recruited<\/a> some high-profile technocrats to boost governing credibility. And all the while, he encouraged<\/a> baan yai<\/em>\u2014local political dynasties known for transactional patronage politics\u2014to defect from other parties to support him. Come the election, he ruthlessly pursued votes in the country\u2019s northeast<\/a>\u2014the front lines of the fighting with Cambodia\u2014at the expense of Pheu Thai, which was once hegemonic there.<\/p>\n So, what now for the also-rans? Kla Tham<\/a>, another conservative party with a strong localist bent, seems to be an obvious junior coalition partner, but since it has only 58 seats, Bhumjaithai will need more to have a strong majority.<\/p>\n Despite the bad blood, Pheu Thai<\/a> might be lured into a coalition with the promise of positions. Or it could stay out\u2014calculating that to survive in the long run, it needs to fight Bhumjaithai to win back its once rock-solid northeastern base.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the People\u2019s Party<\/a> will almost certainly head the opposition, having ruled out a coalition with Bhumjaithai. It will be bitterly ruing<\/a> its decision to lend support to the latter\u2019s minority government in return for promise of constitutional reform.<\/p>\n The deal\u2014and the moderation of the People\u2019s Party\u2019s criticisms of the army and monarchy\u2019s political role following the clashes with Cambodia\u2014angered supporters who felt that the party had compromised its reformist principles.<\/p>\n The referendum<\/a> proposing a new constitution did succeed handily, however, with 60 percent of voters supporting the proposal at time of writing. With Bhumjaithai firmly in power, though, any new drafts will likely fall short of the People\u2019s Party\u2019s more radical hopes.<\/p>\n Anutin supported<\/a> a new constitution, saying that he understood people\u2019s desire for one not authored by the military. But he also ruled out any changes to the status of the monarchy\u2014previously a key goal for the People\u2019s Party, which sees it as a bulwark of conservative power.<\/p>\n Having grasped power, the challenge now will be to govern effectively. Thailand\u2019s economy is flagging<\/a>. Growth is anemic. National and household debt are high. And key industries such as automotive manufacturing and tourism have been battered in recent years.<\/p>\n Bhumjaithai promised in its campaign to restore growth. But its signature policies<\/a> were mainly giveaways aimed at treating immediate distress, including a consumer spending subsidy.<\/p>\n Whether the economic technocrats that it recruited can flesh out and push through the more serious reforms needed remains to be seen.<\/p>\n Myanmar builds a new supreme body.<\/strong> Myanmar\u2019s junta announced<\/a> plans to create a new top government body, a five-member Union Consultative Council.<\/p>\n Under the new rules<\/a>, Myanmar\u2019s president will form the council \u201cfor the purpose of advising on and coordinating matters relating to Union security and the rule of law, international relations, peace affairs, and legislative affairs.\u201d<\/p>\n The one caveat afforded is that the body should not encroach upon \u201cexecutive power and the judicial power.\u201d<\/p>\n Analysts suggest<\/a> that the aim is to let junta leader Min Aung Hlaing retain supreme power even as new governing structures are built post-coup.<\/p>\n One scenario suggested by analysts is that Min Aung Hlaing would assume the presidency\u2014an ambition that he has long hinted at\u2014and govern via the council.<\/p>\n Another possibility is that he might allow another to become president but still wield ultimate authority by serving as the chair of the council.<\/p>\n Philippine president beats impeachment rap.<\/strong> Philippine President Ferdinand \u201cBongbong\u201d Marcos Jr. has won his impeachment<\/a> battle.<\/p>\n The House of Representatives voted to dismiss charges leveled against him\u2014of corruption, violating the constitution, and betraying public trust.<\/p>\n The development was unsurprising. Allies of Marcos have a strong grip on the House, which makes it unlikely that the committee decision will be overridden.<\/p>\n However, this will do little to fix his growing unpopularity with the general public. His approval<\/a> rating sunk to new lows in a poll published December as public anger over corruption grew.<\/p>\n And even though he may still has enough influence to protect himself, Marcos\u2019s political influence<\/a> is waning.<\/p>\n Last year saw disappointing midterm elections for groups aligned with him. And his attempt to regain energy by shining the spotlight on corruption has backfired.<\/p>\n Eyes are turning to the 2028 election, where Vice President\u2014and now sworn foe of Marcos\u2014Sara Duterte is the odds-on favorite.<\/p>\n With her father, Rodrigo Duterte, detained by the International Criminal Court, Duterte has a ready-made issue<\/a> to stoke anger among many Filipinos who still support the former president.<\/p>\n Indian PM visits Malaysia.<\/strong> Having previously skipped<\/a> the October 2025 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit due to the attendance of Pakistan\u2019s effective leader, Field Marshal Asim Munir, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Malaysia on Feb. 7-8.<\/p>\n India-Southeast Asia ties have long been underdeveloped, despite Indian leaders at times expressing a desire to do more.<\/p>\n