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Welcome back to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Situation Report, where we\u2019re just one week out from this year\u2019s Munich Security Conference. As always, we\u2019ll be producing daily SitRep pop-up editions during the three-day gathering as well as participating in several FP events with government officials and experts\u2014which you can keep track of here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, here\u2019s what\u2019s on tap for the day: the continued uncertainty around U.S.-Iran talks<\/strong>, airstrikes in Syria, <\/strong>and the end of New START<\/strong>.<\/p>\n The United States and Iran are set to hold talks in Oman on Friday, reducing the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump making good on threats to order military strikes\u2014for now, at least. Over the past few days, there\u2019s been a whirlwind of mixed messages and conflicting reporting on whether the talks would happen, where they would occur, and under what terms. But the two sides are poised to move forward despite disagreements over the scope of the discussions.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re negotiating,\u201d Trump said of Iran on Thursday at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington. \u201cThey don\u2019t want us to hit them.\u201d<\/p>\n Will they\/won\u2019t they. <\/strong>The talks were originally slated to occur in Istanbul, with foreign ministers from Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia also set to attend. But Iran reportedly pushed for changes at the last minute, including moving the venue to Muscat, Oman, and excluding representatives from other countries. Tehran also wanted to place strict limitations on the agenda, insisting that the discussions remain focused on its nuclear program. This threatened to derail the meeting altogether, as the Trump administration also wants to discuss limits on Iran\u2019s ballistic missile program and its support for proxy groups across the Middle East.<\/p>\n But the White House confirmed to SitRep on Wednesday that the talks were back on, even as the precise agenda of the discussions remains up in the air. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who will lead his country\u2019s delegation on Friday, also confirmed the talks via a post on X, stating<\/a>, \u201cNuclear talks with the United States are scheduled to be held in Muscat on about 10 am Friday. I\u2019m grateful to our Omani brothers for making all necessary arrangements.\u201d Special envoy Steve Witkoff will lead the U.S. delegation.<\/p>\n The stakes.<\/strong> Friday will mark the first formal diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran since Trump ordered strikes on nuclear sites across the country in June 2025. The strikes did significant damage to Iran\u2019s nuclear program but did not completely \u201cobliterate\u201d it, despite claims to the contrary from Trump. The location of Iran\u2019s 400 kilogram stockpile of highly enriched uranium also remains unclear.<\/p>\n Tensions between the two countries have remained high since the U.S. strikes and have escalated in recent weeks amid Tehran\u2019s bloody crackdown on mass anti-government protests that swept the country. Estimates on the number of demonstrators killed by Iranian security forces range from around 6,000 to more than 33,000<\/a>.<\/p>\n Starting in early January, Trump repeatedly threatened to strike Iran over its violent response to the protests. Though Trump has not yet ordered such action, he has boosted the U.S. military presence in the region to keep his options open\u2014and on Tuesday, a U.S. Navy fighter jet downed an Iranian drone that approached an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. Trump said on Wednesday that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should be \u201cvery worried.\u201d<\/p>\n Friday\u2019s talks could play a big role in determining whether Trump decides to order fresh strikes on Iran. Recent reports<\/a> indicate that Tehran is concerned that a U.S. attack could reignite the protests and threaten the regime\u2019s survival.<\/p>\n The Trump administration has called for Iran to stop enriching uranium and hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Issues such as this will be major sticking points at the upcoming talks. But with both sides at odds over these issues\u2014and unable to even agree on what will be discussed\u2014a major breakthrough appears unlikely.<\/p>\n The controversy and confusion around U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard<\/strong>\u2019s presence at a recent FBI raid on an election center in Georgia only continues to grow, with Trump saying<\/a> on Thursday that Gabbard was there at Attorney General Pam Bondi\u2019s insistence. Trump had said in an NBC News interview a day earlier that he didn\u2019t know<\/a> why Gabbard was present at the raid before speculating that it could be because of interference by China in U.S. elections. Gabbard said<\/a> in a letter to Congress earlier in the week that Trump had \u201cspecifically directed\u201d her to be there.<\/p>\n What should be high on your radar, if it isn\u2019t already.<\/em><\/p>\n Ukraine\u2019s \u2018constructive\u2019 negotiations. <\/strong>The second round of trilateral negotiations among Ukraine, Russia, and the United States over ending Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine concluded in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Thursday, with Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov describing<\/a> the talks as \u201cconstructive and focused on how to create the conditions for a durable peace.\u201d<\/p>\n Russia and Ukraine each released 157 prisoners of war as part of the negotiations, their first such exchange in five months, he added. The U.S. military\u2019s European Command also said it had agreed<\/a> to resume military-to-military dialogue with Russia for the first time since late 2021.<\/p>\n But progress on ending the war has been slow, and this week\u2019s talks yielded little in terms of actual results beyond the prisoner swap. Russia is continuing its assault on Ukraine, including conducting massive airstrikes<\/a> on the country\u2019s energy grid on Tuesday, the day before the Abu Dhabi negotiations began.<\/p>\n New START ends. <\/strong>On Thursday, the clock officially ran out on the last nuclear arms treaty between Russia and the United States. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) entered into force in 2011, replacing the 1991 START I treaty and placing limits on the number of nuclear weapons that Moscow and Washington\u2014which together control 90 percent of the world\u2019s warheads\u2014could deploy.<\/p>\n Trump said<\/a> on Thursday that \u201c[r]ather than extend \u2018NEW START\u2019 (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.\u201d He has previously said that such a deal should include other major nuclear powers\u2014namely, China. The United States and Russia are reportedly<\/a> negotiating a deal to continue informally observing New START\u2019s provisions, but for now, we\u2019re in an uncertain nuclear limbo.<\/p>\n Syria strikes. <\/strong>The United States has recently conducted multiple airstrikes in Syria against the Islamic State, the U.S. military\u2019s Central Command (Centcom) announced<\/a> on Wednesday, hitting five targets between Jan. 27 and Feb. 2 and destroying some of the group\u2019s communications, logistics, and weapons capabilities. \u201cStriking these targets demonstrates our continued focus and resolve for preventing an ISIS resurgence in Syria,\u201d Adm. Brad Cooper, the Centcom commander, said in a statement. \u201cOperating in coordination with coalition and partner forces to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS makes America, the region and the world safer.\u201d<\/p>\n