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Welcome back to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Southeast Asia Brief.<\/p>\n The highlights this week: Japan and the Philippines build up defense cooperation,<\/strong> Vietnam\u2019s leadership is set to consolidate power,<\/strong> and Elon Musk\u2019s Grok is banned <\/strong>in three countries.<\/p>\n Philippines-Japan Deepen Defense Relationship<\/p>\n Japan and the Philippines have signed a new defense pact<\/a> to allow the smooth transfer of materiel between their armed forces.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The agreement is another step toward deepening military cooperation between the two countries and part of Japan\u2019s wider push to expand its security relationships across the Indo-Pacific. The agreement<\/a> lays out a framework for the two countries\u2019 armed forces to provide each other with ammunition, fuel, food, and other materiel.<\/p>\n The pact helps implement the Reciprocal Access Agreement<\/a> (RAA)\u2014signed in 2024 and implemented last year\u2014which allows both countries\u2019 armed forces to legally enter and perform operations in each other\u2019s territory.<\/p>\n Japan has ramped up its security cooperation with the Philippines in other ways, too, steadily donating vessels and other equipment to the Philippine Coast Guard<\/a> and Navy<\/a> for years. There are now discussions that the navy could also acquire secondhand warships<\/a> and air defense missiles<\/a> from Japan.<\/p>\n These measures are aimed at hedging against Chinese coercion, with both countries facing Chinese claims to their territorial waters.<\/p>\n At the signing on Jan. 15, Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro commented<\/a> that both countries recognized \u201cthe value of promoting the rule of law, including the freedom of navigation and overflight, especially in the South China Sea.\u201d<\/p>\n The Chinese response<\/a> to the latest agreement was predictably spiky, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson warning against the resurgence of \u201cJapanese militarism.\u201d<\/p>\n Manila has been ramping up joint exercises with various partners as a way of signaling international support for its efforts against Chinese maritime encroachment. Last year, the Philippines also held its largest ever joint exercise<\/a> with Australia and signed visiting forces agreements with New Zealand<\/a> and Canada<\/a>. It is currently working on another agreement with France<\/a>.<\/p>\n Going through the text of the most recent agreement<\/a> with Japan, one other clause jumped out.<\/p>\n Regarding circumstances under which materiel could be transferred, one scenario included is one involving \u201cprotection measures or transportation of nationals of either Party or others, if appropriate, for their evacuation from overseas.\u201d<\/p>\n This is not so unexpected; the safety of the millions of Filipinos living overseas has long been a major issue for the Philippines.<\/p>\n Still, the most obvious situation in which the Philippines or Japan might need to cooperate on a large scale to evacuate each other\u2019s citizens would be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.<\/p>\n Philippine President Ferdinand \u201cBongbong\u201d Marcos Jr. has previously expressed concern about the some 190,000 Filipino residents in Taiwan<\/a> should conflict occur.<\/p>\n These and other remarks have prompted angry responses<\/a> from China, something that Japan also recently experienced when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi commented<\/a> that Chinese military action against Taiwan could constitute a \u201csurvival-threatening situation.\u201d<\/p>\n Zooming out further, ramped up cooperation with the Philippines is part of a wider push by Japan to build up its security relationships across the region. Japan\u2019s Official Security Assistance program, launched in 2023, dispenses security aid<\/a> to five countries in Southeast Asia\u2014the Philippines, plus Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and East Timor\u2014as well as Sri Lanka, Tonga, and Papua New Guinea.<\/p>\n So far, though, the numbers remain small, with about $116 million budgeted<\/a> in fiscal 2026. This is a 125 percent increase compared to the 2025 budget, which was itself was a 60 percent increase<\/a> on 2024.<\/p>\n These developments in Japan and the Philippines predate U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s second term, but they are inevitably influenced by current events.<\/p>\n Vietnam party congress kicks off.<\/strong> The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, which will select the country\u2019s leaders<\/a> for the next five years, started Monday and will run until Jan. 25.<\/p>\n The expectation is that To Lam, the general secretary of the Communist Party and national leader, will also assume the presidency.<\/p>\n The combination of the two roles is not unprecedented, but since Ho Chi Minh, this sort of dual-role arrangement has only occurred when one of the officeholders died before completing their term, letting the other step in.<\/p>\n To Lam being nominated to both would demonstrate a level of political dominance not seen in decades. Expect more on this in this newsletter next week.<\/p>\n Back-to-back crane collapses.<\/strong> Thailand was hit by two eerily similar tragedies in two days, with fatal crane collapses occurring on Jan. 14 and Jan. 15. One company was the contractor on both sites.<\/p>\n The two incidents\u2014the first of which hit a passenger train, killing 32 people, and the second of which hit vehicles, killing two\u2014has prompted<\/a> furious scrutiny of Italian-Thai \u00a0Development (ITD), one of the country\u2019s largest construction firms.<\/p>\n This is just the latest scandal<\/a> to hit ITD. In March 2025, the State Audit Office building, under construction by ITD, collapsed following a major earthquake with an epicenter in Myanmar. It was the only building in Bangkok to collapse, and 95 people were killed.<\/p>\n Thai authorities responded by indicting 23 individuals, including the company president. At least one other fatal incident also occurred at an ITD expressway construction site in 2025.<\/p>\n Responding to the latest incident, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, perhaps with one eye on the country\u2019s upcoming Feb. 8 election, ordered<\/a> the government to look for ways to revoke ITD\u2019s contracts at the two sites where the accidents occurred, pursue legal action, and blacklist the company.<\/p>\n The latest scandals reflect not just bad practice at one company, but a wider industry problem.<\/p>\n In March 2025, following another fatal collapse that killed five people on the Rama II Road\u2014the same location as the most recent crane incident\u2014local media noted that there had been more than 2,500 construction-related accidents<\/a> since 2019 on this road alone.<\/p>\n Laotian leader extends time in office.<\/strong> On Jan. 9, Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith was reappointed<\/a> for a second term as the general secretary of the Lao People\u2019s Revolutionary Party at the party\u2019s 12th National Congress.<\/p>\n The 80-year-old leader served as a teacher in the Pathet Lao, the revolutionary group that toppled the country\u2019s monarchy.<\/p>\n There was a generational shift at this party congress: Five Politburo members born in the 1940s and 1950s retired to make way for younger technocratic figures.<\/p>\n The question remains whether this transition<\/a> will help Laos hit its development goals. The country is trying to leave behind its \u201cleast-developed country<\/a>\u201d status within the United Nations.<\/p>\n If this happens, Laos will lose various privileges afforded to least-developed countries, such as preferential trade treatment, but the state press seems keen on the recategorization as a symbol of progress.<\/p>\n The congress also declared an ambitious goal to become an upper-middle income country by 2055<\/a>.<\/p>\n