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Welcome back to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Situation Report, our first edition of 2026. We hope you had a restful holiday break, considering we\u2019ve already had at least a month\u2019s worth of news in just the first week of January.<\/p>\n On that note, here\u2019s what\u2019s on tap for the day: Trump<\/strong> wants to turn the U.S. military<\/strong> into his personal global enforcers, protests<\/strong> rock the regime in Iran<\/strong>, and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro<\/strong> gets a prominent U.S. lawyer<\/strong>.<\/p>\n If 2025 marked a year of norm-busting for how the U.S. military is used (as we covered<\/a> in multiple<\/a> newsletters<\/a>), we\u2019re already looking at a possible obliteration of those norms just days into 2026.<\/p>\n So far this year, U.S. President Donald Trump has used the military to seize Venezuelan leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro after months<\/a> of strikes on alleged drug boats<\/a> off the country\u2019s coast, and has since mused<\/a> about taking similar actions against Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Iran, and Greenland<\/a>.<\/p>\n In case you missed it, he also authorized an airstrike<\/a> on Islamic State militants in Nigeria last month, citing their alleged targeting of Christians in the country, though details of those allegations and of the strikes themselves have been scant<\/a>. Experts have emphasized that while there is a problem with deadly jihadi extremist violence in Nigeria, it\u2019s often indiscriminate<\/a> and impacts people across religious lines.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s oft-repeated 2024 campaign promise of \u201cno new wars<\/a>\u201d has repeatedly been blown out of the water, and the U.S. president is now calling for a significantly bigger war chest.<\/p>\n \u201cI have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars,\u201d Trump wrote in a post<\/a> on Truth Social on Wednesday. \u201cThis will allow us to build the \u2018Dream Military\u2019 that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Imagined threats.<\/strong> Many of Trump\u2019s justifications for the military actions he\u2019s taken have been based on flimsy evidence or embellished assertions\u2014particularly when it comes to Venezuela. The Trump administration has characterized the country as a major source of deadly drugs being trafficked in the United States\u2014but top experts strongly dispute this. Most of the drugs that the United States is most worried about, such as cocaine and fentanyl, are produced in other countries and travel by land<\/a> across the U.S. border via Mexico.<\/p>\n While many agree with the administration\u2019s claim that Maduro was an illegitimate and corrupt leader, the Trump administration has also not provided hard evidence to back up the notion that he\u2019s a \u201cnarcoterrorist.\u201d In a telling development, the administration in its legal case against Maduro has already abandoned<\/a> its frequently repeated claim that he heads the \u201cCartel de los Soles,\u201d which experts have said is a slang term for corrupt officials in Venezuela who\u2019ve accepted drug money and not an actual organization.<\/p>\n Republican reins.<\/strong> Congress has thus far largely eschewed any checks and balances on Trump\u2019s use of the military.\u00a0But that shifted slightly in the Senate on Thursday, which voted<\/a> to advance a war powers<\/a> resolution by Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine to curb Trump from taking further military action in Venezuela without getting permission from Congress first.<\/p>\n The resolution\u2014which five Republican senators joined Democrats in voting for\u2014must still pass in the full Senate, faces an uncertain path in the House, and could ultimately be vetoed by Trump. But it served as a shot across Trump\u2019s bow from lawmakers in his own party. Trump posted<\/a> on Truth Social that \u201cRepublicans should be ashamed\u201d of the five senators who voted to advance the resolution, adding that those senators \u201cshould never be elected to office again.\u201d<\/p>\n Even as more Republican lawmakers begin to waver in their support of Trump\u2019s military ambitions, the trickle of congressional dissent and pressure against the administration is likely to become a flood if Democrats take control of the House and Senate in November\u2019s midterm elections. It\u2019s a possibility that Trump is well aware of, telling<\/a> Republicans on Tuesday that he would \u201cget impeached\u201d if they lose the midterms.<\/p>\n That election is still nearly a year away, however, giving Trump several more months to potentially escalate U.S. military intervention around the world. Given what we\u2019ve seen in the first week of 2026, it is becoming abundantly clear that no country can afford to ignore Trump\u2019s threat of military force\u2014no matter how outlandish it might sound.<\/p>\n Barry Pollack<\/a>, an experienced lawyer who previously represented WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, will represent Maduro in the criminal case the U.S. Justice Department has brought against him, according to court filings.<\/p>\n The Hoover Building in downtown Washington, D.C.\u2014which served as the FBI\u2019s longtime headquarters until the agency\u2019s current director, Kash Patel, moved it a few blocks away last year\u2014will now be \u201cshut down permanently,\u201d Patel confirmed<\/a> in a post on X.<\/p>\n What should be high on your radar, if it isn\u2019t already.<\/em><\/p>\n \u2018Hostile rhetoric.\u2019<\/strong> Dozens have been killed in Iran in recent days amid anti-government protests prompted by frustrations over the country\u2019s floundering economy. The demonstrations, which have reportedly spread<\/a> to over 100 cities and towns across Iran, have been met with a violent crackdown by security forces.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s economy has struggled under the weight of crippling sanctions linked to its tensions with the West. Those sanctions tightened following a 12-day war between the country and Israel in June 2025, which culminated with U.S. strikes on three of Iran\u2019s nuclear sites. The protests began in late December as Iran\u2019s rial plunged to a record low against the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n Trump has threatened to intervene if more protesters are killed, warning Iran that it could be \u201chit very hard\u201d by the United States. But U.S. involvement could potentially backfire and exacerbate the government\u2019s crackdown while endangering U.S. troops in the region. In a warning seemingly aimed at the United States and Israel, which has also expressed support for the protests, Iran\u2019s army chief on Wednesday said that the country would respond to \u201chostile rhetoric<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n Ukraine\u2019s security guarantees.<\/strong> Kyiv has been adamant that it needs security guarantees from the United States and Europe to deter future Russian aggression before signing off on any peace deal with Moscow. Progress was made on this front in recent days, but much remains up in the air.<\/p>\n A coalition of Ukraine\u2019s allies met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. representatives in Paris this week to discuss the matter, releasing a statement<\/a> that said the coalition stands \u201cready to commit to a system of politically and legally binding guarantees that will be activated once a ceasefire enters into force.\u201d France and the United Kingdom also signed a declaration of intent to place French and British troops on the ground in Ukraine following a cease-fire. Though the United States didn\u2019t sign onto the coalition statement, it did offer verbal support<\/a> for security guarantees from the coalition.<\/p>\n Zelensky on Thursday also said a bilateral document for Ukraine\u2019s security guarantees is now ready for finalization with Trump. But in yet another sign of how difficult it will be to reach a deal that both sides in the war will accept, Russia has already thrown cold water on the notion of deploying Western troops to Ukraine\u2014warning<\/a> it would perceive such forces as a \u201cthreat\u201d and therefore as legitimate combat targets.<\/p>\n