{"id":3466,"date":"2026-01-01T03:04:17","date_gmt":"2026-01-01T03:04:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/?p=3466"},"modified":"2026-01-01T03:04:17","modified_gmt":"2026-01-01T03:04:17","slug":"5-things-to-watch-in-south-asia-next-year-foreign-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/?p=3466","title":{"rendered":"5 Things to Watch in South Asia Next Year \u2013 Foreign Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Welcome to\u00a0<em>Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s South Asia Brief.<\/p>\n<p>After a <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2025\/12\/24\/south-asia-year-review-india-pakistan-conflict-nepal-afghanistan\/\">tumultuous year<\/a>, South Asia will be looking to bounce back with a smoother 2026. Unfortunately, the region enters the new year facing serious risks of political and economic instability as well as regional conflict as it grapples with the unsettling impacts of a volatile world order.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-nosnippet=\"\">\n<p>Welcome to\u00a0<em>Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s South Asia Brief.<\/p>\n<p>After a <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2025\/12\/24\/south-asia-year-review-india-pakistan-conflict-nepal-afghanistan\/\">tumultuous year<\/a>, South Asia will be looking to bounce back with a smoother 2026. Unfortunately, the region enters the new year facing serious risks of political and economic instability as well as regional conflict as it grapples with the unsettling impacts of a volatile world order.<\/p>\n<p>Below are five storylines to watch that will shape South Asia\u2019s trajectory for the coming year\u2014and perhaps beyond.<\/p>\n<div class=\"newsletter-unit-signup--shortcode-fallback\">\n<h2 class=\"dek-heading\">\n                <\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/category\/south-asia-brief\/\">Sign up<\/a>  to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Wednesday.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<form data-shortcode-newsletter=\"south_asia_brief\" class=\"newsletter-unit-signup newsletter-unit-signup--shortcode email-capture--step-1 newsletter-unit-signup--shortcode-south_asia_brief\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-south_asia_brief newsletter-shortcode-south_asia_brief\">\n<div class=\"show-on-email-capture--signed-up hide-from-newsletter-subscriber newsletter-unit-signup--shortcode--container\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-unit newsletter-row\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-south_asia_brief\">\n<h2 class=\"dek-heading\">Sign up to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Wednesday.<\/h2>\n<p>\n                        <button class=\"button\">Sign Up<\/button>\n                    <\/p>\n<div class=\"grid--flex newsletter-south_asia_brief newsletter-signup-container\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"South Asia Brief sign up form\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div class=\"buttons\">\n<div class=\"hide-from-newsletter-subscriber privacy-policy-container\">\n<div class=\"privacy-policy-acknowledge\">\n<p><small>By submitting your email, you agree to the <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/privacy\/\" target=\"_blank\">Privacy Policy<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/termsofuse\/\" target=\"_blank\">Terms of Use<\/a> and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time.<\/small><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\n    <label for=\"email-south_asia_brief\">Enter your email<\/label><br \/>\n    <input type=\"email\" name=\"email\" class=\"hide-from-reg hide-from-sub\" id=\"email-south_asia_brief\" aria-required=\"true\" required=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<p>    <button class=\"button button--signup \" data-newsletter-id=\"south_asia_brief\" data-sourceid=\"In-article unit\" type=\"submit\"><br \/>\n      <span class=\"sign-up-text\">Sign Up<\/span><br \/>\n      <span class=\"loading-text\">Loading&#8230;<\/span><br \/>\n    <\/button>\n  <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<hr\/>\n<h3>Crucial Elections in Bangladesh and Nepal<\/h3>\n<p>Bangladesh and Nepal will hold high-stakes national elections early in 2026. Both are the first polls since mass uprisings ousted unpopular leaders\u2014former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and former Nepali Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli\u2014but each nation has taken a different path to get there.<\/p>\n<p>Bangladesh\u2019s interim government, which took office in August 2024, initially focused on pursuing ambitious reforms and waited a year to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/czd031z5md9o\">announce<\/a> an election date, now set for Feb. 12. Nepal\u2019s provisional administration assumed power in September and immediately <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/nepal-sets-march-elections-after-naming-interim-prime-minister-2025-09-13\/\">announced<\/a> a timeline for polls\u2014scheduled for March 5. It has zeroed in on election preparations.<\/p>\n<p>If a critical mass of voters in each country conclude that their election isn\u2019t credible, or if they don\u2019t like the government that it brings to power, there is real risk of fresh unrest. Bangladesh and Nepal both have highly charged political environments. Mobilized young people brought down the previous leaders and see elections as a crucial next step to restore good governance and democracy.<\/p>\n<p>If these young leaders conclude that their expectations haven\u2019t been met, then they will likely return to the streets. India and China, which have important relations with both countries, will watch the elections closely.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h3>Pakistan and Its Neighbors<\/h3>\n<p>This year, Pakistan <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2025\/12\/25\/india-pakistan-conflict-kashmir-south-asia\/\">had a brief military conflict with India<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2025\/10\/10\/explosions-hit-kabul-as-taliban-make-diplomatic-push-to-india\">came close<\/a> to one with Afghanistan. Islamabad faces a risk of hostilities with both neighbors in 2026. India-Pakistan relations are tenser than they have been in decades, and a single trigger\u2014a terrorist attack, a cross-border incursion, an Indian dam-building project\u2014could provoke another conflict.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Pakistan has been unable to convince or compel the Taliban regime in Afghanistan to curb terrorist groups that have staged increasing cross-border attacks. This has raised the specter of sustained Pakistani military operations in Afghanistan to root out militants\u2014and the Taliban retaliating by mobilizing militants to carry out strikes against Pakistan.<\/p>\n<p>Mediation efforts by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2025\/11\/8\/afghanistans-taliban-blames-irresponsible-pakistan-as-peace-talks-fail\">Qatar<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/amu.tv\/213701\/\">Saudi Arabia<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/pakistan-afghanistan-talks-turkey-8839bbbe2b0c737c0c79ca7e14b36b1d\">Turkey<\/a> failed to quell Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions, though these countries will likely keep trying next year. U.S. President Donald Trump has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/2604106\/pakistan\">said<\/a> he wants to mediate between India and Pakistan, but New Delhi\u2019s rejection of third-party involvement will preempt that possibility.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, in each case, the difficult task of keeping tensions at a manageable level will fall to Pakistan and its neighbors, not to external actors.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h3>The Maldives\u2019 Economy<\/h3>\n<p>Two of the world\u2019s most serious economic crises in recent years originated in South Asia. In 2022, Sri Lanka <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/business-61505842\">defaulted<\/a> on its debt, and Pakistan <a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/amid-cash-crunch-pakistan-grappling-with-options-to-avert-default-\/7141352.html\">narrowly avoided<\/a> the same fate in 2023. Now, the Maldives faces major <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/country\/maldives\/publication\/maldives-development-update-october-2025#:~:text=Click%20here%20to%20download%20the%20latest%20Maldives%20Development%20Update%20(October%202025)&amp;text=Maldives'%20economic%20growth%20moderated%20in,percent%20in%20the%20first%20quarter.\">macroeconomic stress<\/a>\u2014and if it doesn\u2019t mitigate this stress, it could spark concerns about becoming the next Sri Lanka.<\/p>\n<p>In October, the World Bank <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/country\/maldives\/publication\/maldives-development-update-october-2025\">warned<\/a> that the Maldives faces a \u201chigh risk of debt distress\u201d because of foreign exchange shortages, insufficient financing options, and large debt service obligations (thanks in great part to hefty Chinese loans). Public debt is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/country\/maldives\/publication\/maldives-development-update-october-2025#:~:text=Click%20here%20to%20download%20the%20latest%20Maldives%20Development%20Update%20(October%202025)&amp;text=Maldives'%20economic%20growth%20moderated%20in,percent%20in%20the%20first%20quarter.\">projected<\/a> to approach 135 percent of the country\u2019s GDP in the next year.<\/p>\n<p>In both Sri Lanka and Pakistan, severe debt and shrinking foreign exchange reserves were major triggers for the economic meltdowns.<\/p>\n<p>The good news for the Maldives is that it has so far fended off a bigger crisis through <a href=\"https:\/\/en.maaldif.com\/10840\/\">robust tourism revenue<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/zeenews.india.com\/india\/india-helping-maldives-stabilise-its-stressful-financial-situation-foreign-secretary-misri-2935448.html\">recent infusions of assistance<\/a> from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.orfonline.org\/research\/the-mal-turnaround\">key partners<\/a> such as India. But with the country\u2019s economy remaining so vulnerable, potential new external shocks\u2014from spikes in global commodity costs to sudden interruptions in tourist revenue\u2014could spell big trouble.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h3>Modi\u2019s Future<\/h3>\n<div id=\"attachment_1216005\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone none\">            <span style=\"padding-bottom:66.666666666667%;&#10;        \" class=\"image-attachment -ratioscale\"><br \/>\n        <br \/>\n        <\/span><figcaption style=\"height:0;opacity:0;\">Modi is seen from the chest upward as he stares straight at the camera with a serious expression. He wears his usual wire-framed glasses, kurta, and vest.<\/figcaption><p id=\"caption-attachment-1216005\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attends a tribute ceremony at San Mart\u00edn Square in Buenos Aires on July 5.<span class=\"attribution\">Tomas Cuesta\/Getty Images<\/span> <!-- caption placeholder --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Political change has been a consistent trend in South Asia in recent years\u2014but not in India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, first elected in 2014, is the longest-serving democratically elected leader in the region. Next year, there will be growing speculation about Modi\u2019s political future\u2014and especially about whether he will run for a fourth straight term in 2029.<\/p>\n<p>Modi <a href=\"https:\/\/www.indiatoday.in\/mood-of-the-nation\/story\/pm-modis-popularity-plateaus-drop-for-nda-suggests-mood-of-the-nation-2778351-2025-08-28\">remains very popular<\/a>, and his party won <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2025\/11\/18\/india-bihar-elections-modi-bjp\/\">several key state elections<\/a> in 2025\u2014strong retorts to critics who hope that the worse-than-expected electoral performance of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2024 signaled the beginning of his demise.<\/p>\n<p>Modi\u2019s supporters will be able to further push back against <a href=\"https:\/\/thewire.in\/economy\/bjp-narrow-win-anti-incumbency-modi-popularity-anishchit-kaal\">concerns about anti-incumbency sentiment<\/a> if the BJP triumphs in another series of <a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/elections\/upcoming-elections-india\/\">state elections<\/a> next year\u2014including a few in India\u2019s south, where the party isn\u2019t as strong. There is no indication so far that Modi is preparing for retirement, but in 2026, observers will watch closely for signals about potential big changes.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h3>Trump\u2019s China Policy<\/h3>\n<p>The policy direction the Trump administration takes next year on China will have significant implications for South Asia. So far, the White House hasn\u2019t articulated a coherent strategy toward Beijing, as Trump has signaled a desire to both <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf\">compete<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/fact-sheets\/2025\/11\/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china\/\">cooperate<\/a> with China.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s ultimate approach will affect the floundering U.S.-India relationship, where a shared desire to counter China has long served as strategic glue. If Washington takes a more moderate view toward Beijing, and especially if Trump reaches an understanding with Chinese President Xi Jinping, then U.S.-India ties could face another big challenge in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. policymakers have recently tended to view South Asia through the lens of great-power competition. Washington\u2019s Indo-Pacific policy\u2014initiated during Trump\u2019s first term\u2014has focused on generating incentives for South Asian countries to reduce dependence on Beijing, from U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dfc.gov\/media\/press-releases\/dfc-commits-half-billion-dollars-port-infrastructure-colombo-sri-lanka\">infrastructure deals<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/politics\/international-relations\/us-uses-defense-diplomacy-to-woo-bangladesh-away-from-china\">arms packages<\/a>. A softer U.S. policy toward China would mean less pressure on them.<\/p>\n<p>Such a shift would likely be received positively in many South Asian capitals as leaders seek to balance ties with the United States and China. But it could also lead to a U.S. push to reduce trade imbalances that don\u2019t favor Washington.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2025\/12\/31\/south-asia-lookahead-things-to-watch-2026\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome to\u00a0Foreign Policy\u2019s South Asia Brief. After a tumultuous year, South Asia will be looking to bounce back with a smoother 2026. Unfortunately, the region enters the new year facing serious risks of political and economic instability as well as regional conflict as it grapples with the unsettling impacts of a volatile world order. Welcome [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3467,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-3466","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-politcical-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3466","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3466"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3466\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}