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The difficult decision that Ukraine\u2019s government now faces is between enduring continued bombing by Russia and relinquishing sovereign land to Russia that is a part of its own cultural identity.<\/p>\n
There are indications that Ukraine may consider ceding territory currently under Russian control if it received ironclad security guarantees in the event of a renewed Russian attack.\u00a0But Ukraine is still trying to hold onto the part of the Donbas region that it has painstakingly fortified\u2014or, at least, it is trying to avoid recognizing it as Russian and giving it up altogether.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
The difficult decision that Ukraine\u2019s government now faces is between enduring continued bombing by Russia and relinquishing sovereign land to Russia that is a part of its own cultural identity.<\/p>\n
There are indications that Ukraine may consider ceding territory currently under Russian control if it received ironclad security guarantees in the event of a renewed Russian attack.\u00a0But Ukraine is still trying to hold onto the part of the Donbas region that it has painstakingly fortified\u2014or, at least, it is trying to avoid recognizing it as Russian and giving it up altogether.<\/p>\n
Ukraine still holds between 10 to 15 percent of Donbas, in the Donetsk region, which sits atop coal deposits and is home to heavy engineering factories.\u00a0Russian President Vladimir Putin has made gaining control over this last swath of the Donbas to be a condition of peace talks; so far, two different proposals have been suggested. One calls for the territory to be turned into a demilitarized zone (DMZ), and the other calls for a demilitarized and free economic zone (FEZ). Both would function as a buffer between Ukrainian-controlled and Russian-controlled land.<\/p>\n
Scant details have been shared, however, on what these arrangements could look like, who would govern the zone, who would monitor violations, and who would stand to benefit economically. \u201cThese ideas seem to come out of a proposal written by [White House envoy Steve] Witkoff, but they don\u2019t provide any technical details. DMZs are a technically complex proposal, where much hinges on the details,\u201d said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow with Carnegie Endowment.<\/p>\n
According to the Trump administration\u2019s leaked plan, this last swath of the Dometsk region\u2019s\u00a0 industrialized belt would be turned into a\u00a0DMZ<\/a>, emptied of the Ukrainian army, and internationally recognized as a part of Russia.<\/p>\n But Ukraine sees that as an unfair ask since Russia is not being asked to pull back its own troops.<\/p>\n \u201cIf the Ukrainian troops withdraw five or ten kilometers, then why don\u2019t the Russian troops also withdraw deep into the occupied territories by the same distance?\u201d Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec 14.<\/p>\n The idea to turn the territory into a FEZ is probably a Ukrainian suggestion made with advice from Europe, according to\u00a0Politico<\/a>. While a DMZ would leave a door open for Russia to annex the land later, a FEZ would theoretically allow Ukraine to continue to own investments and industry in the region. It could also be designed to curry favor with U.S. President Donald Trump through profit-making enticements to U.S. companies.<\/p>\n Zelensky, however, said<\/a> the economic zone was Washington\u2019s idea:\u00a0\u201cThe Americans are searching for some format. They have been discussing the issue of a \u2018free economic zone.\u2019 The Americans call it that, and the Russians call it a \u2018demilitarized zone.\u2019\u201d But he questioned whether Russia could ever be trusted to play by the rules. \u201cWhat will stop them (the Russians) disguising themselves as civilians and taking over this free economic zone?\u201d he said.<\/p>\n There are few existing agreements in history that could serve as a model for a possible buffer zone in the Donbas.<\/p>\n In 1953, a DMZ was created in the Korean Peninsula to end the Korean War. But that succeeded in ending the war mainly due to the deployment of U.S. boots on the ground.\u00a0The Trump administration has stated multiple times that it will not deploy troops in Ukraine, and even the Europeans may only send troops for training purposes.<\/p>\n The Egyptian-Israeli conflict also culminated in a DMZin the Sinai Peninsula and a peace treaty, largely due to U.S. support for Israel. Although Israel also gave up on its expansionist goal to occupy the Sinai, as well as the prized coastal town of Sharm El-Sheikh, while Egypt accepted limits on the movement of its armed forces. The deal also worked because of a fundamental shift in the political calculus on both sides and a decision to live side by side.<\/p>\n \u201cI am not sure if Sinai is an equivalent to Donbas. If we managed to get Egypt to share the Sinai, then perhaps it would be. Because that\u2019s what Russia is asking for\u2014to take a part of Ukrainian land. Back then, there was a push to take over Sharm El-Sheikh, but it didn\u2019t happen. Both sides lost the appetite to fight,\u201d said Eran Lerman, former deputy national security advisor of Israel. \u201cAs long as one side feels that they have a better chance of getting what they want, there will be no agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n A United Nations-led peacekeeping force was tasked with maintaining the ceasefire between Israeli and Syrian forces in the Golan Heights. It separated Israeli-occupied Syria from the rest of Syrian territory and has remained quiet since then, even though Golan is still internationally recognized as Syrian and not Israeli territory. Like Syria, Ukraine, too, can save face and agree to a DMZ without legally ceding its land. But unlike Israel, Russia is refusing to accept anything short of international recognition of its claim to Ukrainian territory as a condition to end the fighting.<\/p>\n Ukraine may accept de facto Russian control over territories that Russia already controls and agree to a buffer zone in Ukrainian-held Donbas\u2014so long as it kept formal sovereignty in both those areas and those currently controlled by Russia. But the Ukrainian government doesn\u2019t believe that official territorial concessions would produce an enduring peace. Zelensky has also said that only a referendum can decide on territorial concessions.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Ukrainian position is that the borders of 1991 remain the borders of the country, but it also understands it is not in a position to liberate those territories militarily. So, it would be willing to accept de facto control of a foreign power but no de jure transfer,\u201d said Rafael Loss, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. \u201cThat allows Ukraine to open up future negotiations over the territory, or if the Russian regime collapses, which has happened in the past, [it] leaves a chance to reintegrate. That\u2019s harder if this territory becomes a part of proper Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n Some experts believe that, at the current pace, Russia will need much more time, men, and money to capture the Ukrainian-held Donbas. They disagree with the Trump administration\u2019s assumption that Ukraine is losing the war and should trade territory for peace. \u201cIf Russians can take this territory easily, then why don\u2019t they? Why is it a major point in negotiations? If it is not a matter of significant time and effort, why is this a key Russian demand in the first place? I think the cost of taking it could exhaust Russian military effort in the war,\u201d Kofman said.<\/p>\n Even if Russia unilaterally captured the territory, it cannot force the international community, including Europe, to recognize it. Turkey invaded Cyprus in the early 1970s and annexed<\/a> a third of the island, but Turkey remains alone in recognizing it as Turkish territory. The Republic of Cyprus,\u00a0 on the other hand, joined the European Union and grew economically at a much faster rate with its\u00a0GDP twice<\/a>\u00a0as high as that of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Ukraine\u2019s bid to join the EU is also being expedited.<\/p>\n A demilitarized zone or a free economic zone can only work if both sides are keen to end the conflict and value the benefits of peace above continued fighting. At this stage, it\u2019s clear that Russia believes it has the upper hand on the battlefield\u2014not least owing to Trump\u2019s fondness for Putin. It\u2019s equally clear that Ukraine and its European allies don\u2019t think Ukraine would stand to gain much in the way of a credible peace by giving up more territory.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n