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Among all the moving parts<\/a> of the peace plan being hammered out by Ukraine, Europe, and the United States, nearly the most important is the one that is not yet moving.<\/p>\n Negotiators in Berlin appear to have agreed on many of the contentious points on a cease-fire and peace plan, including post-war security guarantees, and U.S. envoys will reportedly present<\/a> the plan to the Kremlin later this week.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Among all the <\/span>moving parts<\/span><\/a> of the peace plan being hammered out by Ukraine, Europe, and the United States, nearly the most important is the one that is not yet moving.<\/span><\/p>\n Negotiators in Berlin appear to have agreed on many of the contentious points on a cease-fire and peace plan, including post-war security guarantees, and U.S. envoys will reportedly <\/span>present<\/span><\/a> the plan to the Kremlin later this week.<\/span><\/p>\n But all eyes will be on a big European Union meeting on Thursday to see if the bloc can finally break a logjam and find a way <\/span>to tap<\/span><\/a> hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian Central Bank reserves to keep Kyiv afloat before the country runs out of money early next year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Working out large-scale financial support for Ukraine is at least as important as finalizing questions over the size of the country\u2019s post-war army, the composition of any European security force, or the scope and reliability of U.S. security guarantees.<\/span><\/p>\n That is why the start-and-stop efforts to turn frozen Russian funds into an immediate loan for Ukraine of at least 140 billion euros are drawing so much attention this week. U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse said Tuesday in Washington that the question of how to monetize those reserves \u201cis a global security issue\u201d that should not be \u201cup to Belgian bankers.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cNone of the security details [in the peace proposals] matter if Ukraine is broke by springtime,\u201d said Lucas Guttenberg, a director of the Europe Future program at Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German foundation. \u201cThat\u2019s why I am hopeful about Thursday. We need to find the money, and there is no magic wand\u201d otherwise that can provide the massive cash injection that Kyiv needs to meet its financial obligations over the next two fiscal years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Russian overseas reserves have been frozen since the Ukraine war began, but Europe has struggled to find a way to monetize the more than 200 billion euros it holds for Ukraine\u2019s benefit. The bloc has agreed to <\/span>small-scale loans<\/span><\/a> backed by the interest generated by frozen Russian reserves, but the latest creative plan <\/span>would have called<\/span><\/a> for a lump-sum loan backed by the entirety of Russia\u2019s frozen assets, payable only after Russia had made good on post-war reparations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n There were always some naysayers: Belgium, where the bulk of the frozen money is stored in the Euroclear clearing house, has always been lukewarm on the idea of touching the money, and Hungary and Slovakia have long made it difficult for fellow EU member states to support Ukraine or put the screws to Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n But in recent days, opponents of the \u201creparations loan\u201d plan have multiplied. Italy, Bulgaria, Malta, and the Czech Republic have also come out against the idea of seizing, rather than just freezing, Russia\u2019s overseas state assets. Even that opposition is not enough to overcome the new, looser EU rules that ditched unanimous consent for a \u201cqualified majority\u201d of countries to approve measures related to the Russian assets, but Europe is loath to railroad the proposal through.<\/span><\/p>\n German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a champion of the creative loan idea, <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> that Europe would be \u201cseverely damaged\u201d if it can\u2019t agree on a way to tap the assets this week. EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas on Monday <\/span>acknowledged<\/span><\/a> that implementing the plan seems \u201cincreasingly difficult.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelenksy, speaking before the Dutch parliament on Tuesday, <\/span>urged<\/span><\/a> the Netherlands to support the loan proposal, arguing that \u201cthese Russian assets can and must be fully, fully used to defend against Russia\u2019s own aggression. The aggressor must pay.\u201d (The European Union on Tuesday <\/span>established<\/span><\/a> a <\/span>commission<\/span><\/a> to address claims for damages to Ukraine caused by the Russian invasion.)<\/span><\/p>\n The <\/span>suspicion<\/span><\/a> in Europe is that the newfound skepticism of the loan proposal reflects the desire of right-wing governments to curry favor with the Trump administration, which <\/span>initially sought<\/span><\/a> to use the frozen Russian assets for the United States\u2019 and Russia\u2019s benefit through for-profit investment vehicles.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThis loan is the way to finance Ukraine. The big question is if [Italian premier Giorgia] Meloni passes the test of being more friends with Trump, or is more of a good European,\u201d said Guttenberg.<\/span><\/p>\n For n0w, Belgium is still playing <\/span>hard to convince<\/span><\/a>, even after Europe scrambled to provide a <\/span>suite of guarantees<\/span><\/a> meant to assuage that country\u2019s concern that it could face legal liability for touching the bulk of Russia\u2019s frozen assets. (Russia has <\/span>already<\/span><\/a> filed some legal actions in that direction.)<\/span><\/p>\n At any rate, as crucial as the Thursday meeting is for shoring up Ukraine\u2019s future finances, Europe has already taken the most important and most daring step, by <\/span>freezing the Russian overseas funds<\/span><\/a> indefinitely.<\/span><\/p>\n By invoking a seldom-used emergency powers clause, Brussels was able last week to permanently freeze the 210 billion euros of Russian Central Bank assets held in a half-dozen member states without relying on the dangerous and cumbersome need to renew the freeze through unanimous consent every six months. That process led to continued ransom threats from Hungary, and fears that the frozen funds would be released prematurely; now Europe has a veto on the ultimate use of those frozen funds.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe decision Europe made last week was much more important. At the end, that money is now in the hands of the Europeans, and before it was subject to review every six months,\u201d said Guttenberg. \u201cAll that has completely changed.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The next step will come later this week, as European leaders seek to bridge the remaining differences on how to move from freezing to essentially seizing assets. The stakes, <\/span>Zelensky said<\/span><\/a>, couldn\u2019t be higher:<\/span><\/p>\n