\n
<\/p>\n
Welcome to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Southeast Asia Brief.<\/p>\n In this penultimate edition of the newsletter in 2025, we take a look at an unsettled year.<\/p>\n In March, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested<\/a> and handed over to the International Criminal Court by President Ferdinand \u201cBongbong\u201d Marcos Jr., a former ally. Later that month, Myanmar saw a huge earthquake<\/a> that devastated the country\u2019s center and helped the junta grind out a partial comeback<\/a>.<\/p>\n In May, Singapore saw its first election<\/a> since its new prime minister, Lawrence Wong, took over last year. Despite the ruling party\u2019s jitters, its final performance was strong.<\/p>\n From August on, numerous countries\u2014the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia\u2014were battered by extreme weather and flooding<\/a>. And in October, a joint U.K. and U.S. investigation into the Prince Group revealed the extent to which scam groups are embedded in the Cambodian state<\/a>.<\/p>\n But four stories really stood out\u2014and reshaped the region.<\/p>\n I\u2019m off for the holidays next week but will see you for a preview of the year ahead on New Year\u2019s Eve.<\/em><\/p>\n As the year ends, the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia is back on and, at the time of writing, developing rapidly.<\/p>\n Fighting has now entered its second week, and Thailand denies U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s claims<\/a> of a negotiated cease-fire. The Thai military has declared maximalist goals to destroy<\/a> Cambodia\u2019s military capabilities and is planning a naval embargo<\/a>. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul seems keen to ride a wave of nationalist triumphalism, having dissolved the House of Representatives to hold elections<\/a> early next year.<\/p>\n The exact boundaries between the two countries have long been disputed<\/a>, with prior clashes as recently as 2011. But the origins of the current conflict are murky.<\/p>\n Incidents this year where Thai soldiers were wounded by land mines<\/a> raised tensions. Thailand accused Cambodia of laying new mines, while Cambodia claimed they were remnants of previous conflicts. Then Cambodia\u2019s de facto leader, Hun Sen, leaked<\/a> a phone call between him and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in which she seemed deferential in discussing the issue, helping to topple her from power in early July.<\/p>\n Fighting broke out later that month, with both sides accusing<\/a> the other of firing first. With the latest round, both sides are again accusing<\/a> the other of starting it. Whatever the case, Thailand holds the edge on the battlefield and seems determined to press it.<\/p>\n Southeast Asia Rides Out Tariffs<\/p>\n<\/div>\n When Trump announced his tariffs in April, many\u2014myself included<\/a>\u2014predicted disaster for Southeast Asia\u2019s export-driven economies. In fact, preliminary data suggests the region has not only survived but maybe even thrived.<\/p>\n The region is on track to export about $300 billion more in goods this year than in 2024, according to a report<\/a> by the Sydney-based Lowy Institute. With lower average tariffs than China, Southeast Asia\u2019s exports to the United States have overtaken the former\u2019s. And investment in the region has remained strong.<\/p>\n Another concern was that Chinese goods locked out of the United States would flood into the region. Yet this may be on net a positive, according to the report. While some sectors, such as textiles, are being outcompeted by China, others are getting a lift from its cheaper intermediate and capital goods.<\/p>\n Still, there are ongoing worries. The trade deals<\/a> signed with the United States by Malaysia and Cambodia commit those countries to following U.S. exports controls aimed at China, angering the latter. And not all countries are doing well, with Indonesia in particular seeing exports drop<\/a> and investment<\/a> flee.<\/p>\n This year saw a wave of youth protests from Bulgaria to Nepal, and Southeast Asia was a major epicenter, too. Young populations, anger at corruption<\/a>, and protests taking inspiration from those in other countries were threads that bound the disparate protests together.<\/p>\n The Philippines has seen months of recurrent protests focused on corruption in flood prevention projects\u2014an issue that recurrent extreme weather has made extremely pressing.<\/p>\n In August, Indonesia saw some of its largest protests in decades. Anger over parliamentarians\u2019 extremely generous housing allowance turned volcanic after riot police ran over and killed a motorbike delivery driver.<\/p>\n And in September, Timor-Leste saw major student-led protests over complimentary cars and pensions for lawmakers.<\/p>\n Many grievances remain unaddressed.<\/p>\n In the Philippines, Marcos\u2019s attempts to cast himself as an anti-corruption reformer have fallen flat as scandals have claimed close political allies. And in Indonesia, cuts to parliamentarians\u2019 allowances were followed by new perks<\/a>. Timor-Leste seems an exception<\/a>, with concessions sticking for now.<\/p>\n To Lam\u2019s Bid to Remake Vietnam<\/p>\n<\/div>\n In 2025, To Lam\u2014the steely securocrat who assumed<\/a> Vietnam\u2019s top job last year amid a brutal scuffle\u2014launched a major shake-up, determined to oversee an \u201cera of national rise\u201d for Vietnam.<\/p>\n The former public security minister thinks Vietnam has a small window to develop<\/a> and wants double-digit growth by 2030. To try to hit this target, he has moved hard and fast.<\/p>\n In May, a Communist Party resolution<\/a> declared the private sector the \u201cmost important force\u201d driving the economy. Bureaucracy has been slashed, with the number of provinces reduced from 63 to 34, 100,000 civil servants laid off, and investment rules relaxed.<\/p>\n Business is cheering, and growth<\/a> hit 8.2 percent year-over-year in the third quarter\u2014the region\u2019s best. But there are reasons to be cautious. Undergirding this is an authoritarian streak with Lam\u2019s old bailiwick, the Ministry of Public Security, increasingly omnipotent.<\/p>\n In September, the ministry announced<\/a> that investors in key sectors including telecommunication, energy, and construction would need police approval for projects. Government policy also aims<\/a> for Vietnam to jump straight into high-tech areas such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors\u2014a challenging feat.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n