\n<\/p>\n
Best Bet <\/b><\/p>\n
SAINTS at RAMS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>3:05 p.m. Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: <\/b>Rams by 14 . Total: <\/b>43\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS): <\/b>Saints 3-3-1\/4-3; Rams 5-2\/2-5.
Pick: <\/b>Rams 31, Saints 13.
Play: <\/b>Rams -14.<\/p>\n
LAS VEGAS \u2014 One of the as-expected sorriest NFL teams travels to Southern California this weekend, and the Saints should march home to the Big Easy as the league\u2019s de facto bottom feeder.<\/p>\n
New Orleans has the misfortune of playing the Rams at SoFi Stadium in the worst possible window, since LA coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford have clicked into high gear.<\/p>\n
The Rams followed back-to-back road triumphs with last weekend\u2019s bye, so they\u2019re rested, ready and lying in wait. Stafford, whose passer rating of 109.3 is sixth, has thrown an NFL-high 17 touchdown passes.<\/p>\n
On the road, the only team yielding more yards per throw than the Saints\u2019 8.5 is the Bears, at 8.6. At home in their own dome, New Orleans was humiliated Sunday in a 23-3 defeat by the severely limited Buccaneers.<\/p>\n
The Saints became one of eight teams this season to score single-digit points on their own turf. The good part, for them, is that they haven\u2019t done that on the road, where the Falcons, Titans and Raiders have suffered shutouts.<\/p>\n
(The Raiders also have tallied mere single digits at the Colts and at home to the Chargers. The Falcons and Titans have no other single-figure losses, while the Dolphins have a pair.)<\/p>\n
Tennessee, at -9.2, rests at the bottom of the TeamRankings power ratings, with New Orleans at -9.0. The Raiders, at -6.8, are 30th. The Lions (7.7) are first, the Chiefs (7.4) place and the Rams (6.0) show.<\/p>\n
By now, readers know how much I prize points per play (PPP), since it reveals plenty about a team\u2019s efficiency and how well, or poorly, it\u2019s actually running, nearly everything except the pregame-meal menu.<\/p>\n
On the season, the Rams rate third in PPP margin, at 0.160, according to TeamRankings. The Saints, at -0.174, are 31st. However, their last three games reveal an even greater disparity; the Rams at 0.269, the Saints -0.203.<\/p>\n
Both differentials, of 0.334 and 0.472, respectively, are the largest of all Week 9 tilts.<\/p>\n
For the Saints, the news keeps getting worse. They\u2019re 0-3 on the road, having been outscored 101-46, and this game begins a stretch of four of five on the highway.<\/p>\n
Moreover, it\u2019s a short week of preparation for one of the several teams that\u2019s most ill-equipped for such a quick turnaround.<\/p>\n
In addition, Tyler Shough (pronounced SHUCK) gets the nod over Spencer Rattler, who\u2019s 1-13 as an NFL starter. Shough has thrown 32 NFL passes, with 17 completions, one interception and four yards per attempt.<\/p>\n
Saints coach Kellen Moore benched Rattler for Shough on Sunday and announced Tuesday that Shough would start against the Rams.<\/p>\n
We have tough words of advice for Moore.<\/p>\n
It doesn\u2019t matter.<\/p>\n
TOP PLAYS<\/b><\/p>\n
FALCONS at PATRIOTS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>Noon Sunday.
Line: <\/b>Pats by 5\u00bd.
Total: <\/b>44\u00bd. Records (overall\/ATS):<\/b>
Falcons 3-4\/3-4; Patriots 6-2\/6-2.
Outlook: <\/b>The home squad has the league\u2019s easiest schedule (a meek opponents\u2019 winning percentage of .362) the rest of the way. Since 2021, the Pats also own one of the NFL\u2019s worst home records, of 13-24 (.351), but we like this spot.
Pick: <\/b>Patriots 27, Falcons 14.
Play: <\/b>Patriots -5\u00bd.<\/p>\n
PANTHERS at PACKERS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>Noon Sunday.
Line: <\/b>Packers by 13\u00bd.
Total: <\/b>44\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS): <\/b>Panthers 4-4\/5-3; Packers 5-1-1\/3-4 .
Outlook: <\/b>The Panthers have lost five of their last six games in Green Bay, by a 10.8-point average. This disparity of PPP margins (0.241) is the week\u2019s second-largest, to Rams-Saints. QB Jordan Love has just three sacks in four games.
Pick: <\/b>Packers 27, Panthers 12.
Play: <\/b>Packers -13\u00bd.<\/p>\n
CHARGERS at TITANS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>Noon Sunday.
Line: <\/b>Chargers by 8\u00bd.
Total: <\/b>43\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS): <\/b>Chargers 5-3\/3-4-1; Titans 1-7\/2-6.
Outlook: <\/b>How key is a left tackle? The Chargers are 15-6 over two seasons (4-1 this year) when Joe Alt starts. Since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-21 against the spread, missing the number by an average of six-plus points.
Pick: <\/b>Chargers 24, Titans 10.
Play: <\/b>Chargers -8\u00bd.<\/p>\n
THE REST OF THE GAMES<\/b><\/p>\n
BEARS vs BENGALS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>Noon Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: <\/b>Bears by 3. Total: <\/b>51\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS):<\/b>
Bears 4-3\/4-3; Bengals 3-5\/3-5.
Outlook: <\/b>The Bengals own the worst defense (0.483 PPP) in the league, which is even worse (0.525) at home and sadder over their last three games (0.527). The Bears\u2019 road \u2018D\u2019 (0.568) is at the bottom of the NFL. Expect points galore.
Pick: <\/b>Bengals 31, Bears 30.
Play: <\/b>Over 51\u00bd.<\/p>\n
VIKINGS at LIONS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>Noon Sunday.
Line: <\/b>Lions by 8\u00bd. Total: <\/b>48\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS):<\/b>
Vikings 3-4\/3-4; Lions 5-2\/5-2.
Outlook: <\/b>The Vikes, 0-4 in their last four in Detroit, have lost three of their last four. In those defeats, opposing QBs were 55-for-70 (.786), with seven TDs and a pick. In their last three, Minnesota has yielded an NFL-worst 8.8 yards per throw.
Pick: <\/b>Lions 28, Vikings 10.
Play: <\/b>Lions -8\u00bd.<\/p>\n
NINERS at GIANTS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>Noon Sunday.
Line: <\/b>Niners by 2\u00bd. Total: <\/b>48\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS): <\/b>Niners 5-3\/4-4; Giants 2-6\/4-4.
Outlook: <\/b>It\u2019s tough to keep track of the walking wounded in Santa Clara, who might be close to returning and who will miss another week. RB Christian McCaffrey logged season lows Sunday in rushes and receptions.
Pick: <\/b>Giants 17, Niners 16.
Play: <\/b>Giants +2\u00bd.<\/p>\n
COLTS at STEELERS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>Noon Sunday.
Line: <\/b>Colts by 3. Total: <\/b>50\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS):<\/b>
Colts 7-1\/6-2; Steelers 4-3\/3-4.
Outlook: <\/b>Colts RB Jonathan Taylor\u2019s 850 ground yards, 14 touchdowns and 44 rushing first downs top the NFL. What we particularly admire is that he has carried the ball 238 times, over his last 11 regular-season games, without fumbling.
Pick: <\/b>Colts 23, Steelers 13.
Play: <\/b>Colts -3.<\/p>\n
BRONCOS at TEXANS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>Noon Sunday.
Line: <\/b>Texans by 1\u00bd. Total: <\/b>39\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS):<\/b>
Broncos 6-2\/3-4-1; Texans 3-4\/3-4.
Outlook: <\/b>Houston allows just 11.7 points at home. Denver\u2019s \u2018D\u2019 (18.9 ppg) is fifth overall. Texans QB CJ Stroud finally threw for 300 yards (30-39, 318) against the Niners, and wasn\u2019t sacked once. Can the Texans duplicate that performance?
Pick: <\/b>Texans 17, Broncos 16.
Play: <\/b>Broncos +1\u00bd.<\/p>\n
JAGUARS at RAIDERS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: <\/b>Jaguars by 3\u00bd. Total: <\/b>45\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS):<\/b>
Jaguars 4-3\/4-3; Raiders 2-5\/2-5.
Outlook: <\/b>We covered some of the Raiders\u2019 woes in our main story, but it\u2019s a long list. Jags QB Trevor Lawrence has seven TDs, with a single pick, over his last four games. Jacksonville will exploit the Raiders on third and fourth downs.
Pick: <\/b>Jaguars 31, Raiders 10. Play: <\/b>Jaguars -3\u00bd.<\/p>\n
CHIEFS at BILLS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: <\/b>Chiefs by 2\u00bd. Total: <\/b>52\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS):<\/b>
Chiefs 5-3\/5-3; Bills 5-2\/3-4.
Outlook: <\/b>The Bills finally play at home, only to be designated underdogs. QB Josh Allen is 4-1 SU\/ATS in such spots, that sole blemish coming against the Chiefs. We, however, don\u2019t buy into the \u201crejuvenation\u201d trumpeting about KC.
Pick: <\/b>Bills 33, Chiefs 20. Play: <\/b>Bills +2\u00bd.<\/p>\n
SEAHAWKS at COMMANDERS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: <\/b>Seahawks by 3. Total: <\/b>47\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS):<\/b>
Seahawks 5-2\/5-2; Commanders 3-5\/3-5.
Outlook: <\/b>Among regulars, Seattle QB Sam Darnold owns the best yards-per-throw average (9.1). The Commanders\u2019 secondary yields 7.8 yards per pass, worst in the league. Seattle has won its last nine regular-season road tilts, by a 24-16 average.
Pick: <\/b>Seahawks 21, Commanders 10.
Play: <\/b>Seahawks -3.<\/p>\n
CARDINALS at COWBOYS<\/b>
Time: <\/b>7:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN, ABC 7.
Line: <\/b>Cowboys by 2\u00bd. Total: <\/b>54\u00bd.
Records (overall\/ATS):<\/b>
Cardinals 2-5\/4-3; Cowboys 3-4-1\/4-4.
Outlook: <\/b>On the road, Arizona yields 4.8 yards per run, the fifth-highest away average in the league. The Cowboys and RB Javonte Williams must attack that weakness; he tallied triple-figure yardage in two of their last four, both victories.
Pick: <\/b>Cowboys 24, Cardinals 20.
Play: <\/b>Cowboys -2\u00bd.<\/p>\n
Byes:<\/b> Browns, Bucs, Eagles, Jets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n