{"id":2833,"date":"2025-10-30T03:15:43","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T03:15:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/?p=2833"},"modified":"2025-10-30T03:15:43","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T03:15:43","slug":"how-russia-sanctions-could-affect-india-foreign-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/?p=2833","title":{"rendered":"How Russia Sanctions Could Affect India \u2013 Foreign Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Welcome to <em>Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s South Asia Brief.<\/p>\n<p>The highlights this week: New U.S. and EU <strong>sanctions on Russian oil companies<\/strong> have knock-on effects for India, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi doesn\u2019t make an in-person appearance at the <strong>ASEAN summit<\/strong>, and <strong>Afghanistan-Pakistan talks<\/strong> break down after cross-border violence.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-nosnippet=\"\">\n<p>Welcome to <em>Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s South Asia Brief.<\/p>\n<p>The highlights this week: New U.S. and EU <strong>sanctions on Russian oil companies<\/strong> have knock-on effects for India, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi doesn\u2019t make an in-person appearance at the <strong>ASEAN summit<\/strong>, and <strong>Afghanistan-Pakistan talks<\/strong> break down after cross-border violence.<\/p>\n<div class=\"newsletter-unit-signup--shortcode-fallback\">\n<h2 class=\"dek-heading\">\n                <\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/category\/south-asia-brief\/\">Sign up<\/a>  to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Wednesday.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<form data-shortcode-newsletter=\"south_asia_brief\" class=\"newsletter-unit-signup newsletter-unit-signup--shortcode email-capture--step-1 newsletter-unit-signup--shortcode-south_asia_brief\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-south_asia_brief newsletter-shortcode-south_asia_brief\">\n<div class=\"show-on-email-capture--signed-up hide-from-newsletter-subscriber newsletter-unit-signup--shortcode--container\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-unit newsletter-row\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-south_asia_brief\">\n<h2 class=\"dek-heading\">Sign up to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Wednesday.<\/h2>\n<p>\n                        <button class=\"button\">Sign Up<\/button>\n                    <\/p>\n<div class=\"grid--flex newsletter-south_asia_brief newsletter-signup-container\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"South Asia Brief sign up form\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<div class=\"buttons\">\n<div class=\"hide-from-newsletter-subscriber privacy-policy-container\">\n<div class=\"privacy-policy-acknowledge\">\n<p><small>By submitting your email, you agree to the <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/privacy\/\" target=\"_blank\">Privacy Policy<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/termsofuse\/\" target=\"_blank\">Terms of Use<\/a> and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time.<\/small><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\n    <label for=\"email-south_asia_brief\">Enter your email<\/label><br \/>\n    <input type=\"email\" name=\"email\" class=\"hide-from-reg hide-from-sub\" id=\"email-south_asia_brief\" aria-required=\"true\" required=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<p>    <button class=\"button button--signup \" data-newsletter-id=\"south_asia_brief\" data-sourceid=\"In-article unit\" type=\"submit\"><br \/>\n      <span class=\"sign-up-text\">Sign Up<\/span><br \/>\n      <span class=\"loading-text\">Loading&#8230;<\/span><br \/>\n    <\/button>\n  <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<hr\/>\n<h3>India\u2019s Oil Dilemma<\/h3>\n<p>India\u2014the world\u2019s second-biggest importer of crude oil from Russia\u2014is bracing for impact following the recent announcement of new U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russian oil companies.<\/p>\n<p>Despite India\u2019s deep commercial partnership with Russia, it hasn\u2019t always been a top customer for its oil. New Delhi imports <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/where-could-india-look-replace-russian-oil-2025-08-06\/\">85 percent<\/a> of its total oil needs. But in 2021, the year before Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbr.org\/publication\/oil-for-india\/#footnote5\">just 2 percent<\/a> of these imports came from Russia. That year, its top source for oil imports was Iraq, and India was also the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wilsoncenter.org\/blog-post\/oil-new-chapter-us-india-relations\">top destination<\/a> for U.S. oil exports.<\/p>\n<p>But India\u2019s purchases of Russian oil soared amid the war in Ukraine, registering at some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbr.org\/publication\/oil-for-india\/#footnote5\">40 percent<\/a> of its total crude imports for the last two years. New Delhi has justified this dramatic spike by citing low costs; the Trump administration has denounced it as war profiteering and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/fact-sheets\/2025\/08\/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-addresses-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-the-russian-federation\/\">slapped<\/a> an additional 25 percent tariff penalty on India.<\/p>\n<p>Now India is in a tough spot, with refiners expected to significantly decrease imports of Russian oil, which amounted to about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/indian-refiners-review-russian-oil-contracts-after-us-sanctions-source-says-2025-10-23\/\">1.7 million barrels per day<\/a> during the first nine months of this year. The two Russian energy giants <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/sb0290\">sanctioned<\/a> by the United States\u2014Rosneft and Lukoil\u2014supply around 60 percent of India\u2019s total oil imports from Russia. (Only Rosneft has also been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/press\/press-releases\/2025\/10\/23\/19th-package-of-sanctions-against-russia-eu-targets-russian-energy-third-country-banks-and-crypto-providers\/\">targeted<\/a> by the European Union.)<\/p>\n<p>India\u2019s state-owned oil companies will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/indian-refiners-review-russian-oil-contracts-after-us-sanctions-source-says-2025-10-23\/\">take steps<\/a> to ensure that none of their imports come directly from Rosneft and Lukoil; many of these purchases already come from intermediaries.<\/p>\n<p>One of India\u2019s private energy giants isn\u2019t so fortunate, though. Last December, Mukesh Ambani\u2019s Reliance Industries <a href=\"https:\/\/gfmag.com\/capital-raising-corporate-finance\/reliance-rosneft-russia-india-energy-alliance\/\">signed a deal<\/a> with Rosneft to import between $12 billion and $13 billion worth of oil annually for 10 years. That equated to around 500,000 barrels per day, or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/24\/what-a-cut-in-reliances-russian-crude-purchases-would-mean-for-india.html\">50 percent<\/a> of Reliance\u2019s overall crude imports. The company has said it will comply with the new sanctions but did not mention the deal.<\/p>\n<p>In a statement, Reliance <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/energy\/oil-gas\/reliance-industries-to-adapt-refinery-operations-amid-western-sanctions-on-russian-oil\/articleshow\/124787685.cms?from=mdr\">said<\/a> it would rely on \u201ctime-tested, diversified crude sourcing strategy\u201d to keep up successful refining operations. Overall, however, India may not bounce back so quickly. There are no immediate alternatives to Russian oil at such a cheap price point. The country will likely increase its already robust imports from the Middle East, which could add significant cost.<\/p>\n<p>This is where India\u2019s ongoing trade talks with the United States become important. The Trump administration has demanded that India reduce its Russian oil imports, and New Delhi may now try to negotiate an arrangement to import more U.S. oil at a lower price point. It arguably has some leverage, in that it has already increased oil imports from the United States in recent years.<\/p>\n<p>One recent opportunity for New Delhi to discuss such matters with Washington was squandered: This week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi opted to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia virtually, preventing him from meeting in person with U.S. President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p>The impact of the sanctions on India\u2019s energy security shouldn\u2019t be overstated. The country continues to rely heavily on coal, which comprises <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/countries\/india\">46 percent<\/a> of its energy mix, and it has a diversified set of suppliers for both oil and gas. Still, oil accounts for nearly one-third of India\u2019s total energy consumption\u2014higher than any other source\u2014meaning that it\u2019s critical for both household and commercial use.<\/p>\n<p>There may be a silver lining: The sanctions scare is a reminder for India of the risks of its heavy reliance on imported hydrocarbons. It could bolster those voices that have long called for New Delhi to accelerate the development of indigenous renewables\u2014a goal that the Modi government has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/gauravsharma\/2025\/02\/12\/indias-modi-renews-pledge-of-500-gw-green-energy-capacity-by-2030\/\">embraced<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/mnre.gov.in\/en\/national-green-hydrogen-mission\/\">pursued<\/a>.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h3>What We\u2019re Following<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Modi misses ASEAN.<\/strong> India didn\u2019t provide a reason for sending External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur instead of Modi. But it was likely a combination of Modi wanting to stay in the country during the final preparations for key state elections in Bihar next month and perhaps wanting to avoid a meeting with Trump (and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-10-28\/modi-skipped-summit-due-to-worries-trump-would-mention-pakistan\">possible awkward moment<\/a>) given ongoing U.S.-India tensions.<\/p>\n<p>Modi\u2019s in-person absence was still striking, since India has ascribed geopolitical importance to ASEAN. The group includes some of its closest partners in Asia, such as the Philippines and Vietnam; neighbors that are important to its connectivity interests, such as Myanmar and Thailand; and growing economies such as Singapore\u2014all of which are important for India amid Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n<p>Modi did deliver a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmindia.gov.in\/en\/news_updates\/pms-opening-remarks-during-the-22nd-asean-india-summit\/\">virtual speech<\/a> to the summit and linked India\u2019s fate to that of ASEAN. \u201cThe 21st century is our century, the century of India and ASEAN,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Afghanistan-Pakistan talks collapse.<\/strong> Four days of negotiations between Islamabad and Kabul meant to cement a long-term cease-fire after cross-border violence this month\u2014the deadliest since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/afghanistan-pakistan-peace-talks-istanbul-end-without-resolution-afghan-media-2025-10-28\/\">ended without an agreement<\/a> on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dawn.com\/news\/1951912\/pak-afghan-talks-in-istanbul-failed-to-bring-about-any-workable-solution-says-information-minister\">said<\/a> the Taliban \u201ckept deviating from the core issue,\u201d a reference to Pakistan\u2019s demand that the group rein in the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a Taliban ally that has carried out frequent attacks across the border from bases in Afghanistan. Earlier Pakistani reports said Taliban officials were refusing to go beyond verbal pledges to curb the TTP.<\/p>\n<p>The unsuccessful result isn\u2019t surprising, but the prospect for renewed violence has now increased. On Wednesday, the TTP <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/khorasandiary\/status\/1983475858468983109\">staged<\/a> a bomb attack against security forces in Pakistan, killing at least six soldiers. Such assaults triggered this month\u2019s violence, with the Pakistani military carrying out airstrikes against TTP targets in Afghanistan and the Taliban retaliating with attacks on Pakistani border posts.<\/p>\n<p>Both sides have talked tough. On Wednesday, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/2620698\/pakistan\">warned<\/a> on X that if cross-border attacks continued, Pakistan could \u201ccompletely obliterate\u201d the Taliban regime. The Taliban have <a href=\"https:\/\/newsable.asianetnews.com\/world\/afghanistan-warning-pakistan-islamabad-will-be-targeted-if-kabul-attacked-articleshow-bbsfvoh\">threatened<\/a> in recent days to retaliate against any Pakistani strikes with attacks on Islamabad. The Taliban lack the capacity to do so; the threat was likely a reference to possible TTP actions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Adani scoop.<\/strong> The <em>Washington Post<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2025\/10\/24\/india-adani-group-modi-lic\/\">published<\/a> an investigation last week alleging that the Indian government directed $3.9 billion from the state-owned Life Insurance Corp. of India (LIC) to the businesses of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani\u2014a close friend of Modi. The LIC quickly <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/banking\/finance\/insure\/lic-refutes-washington-post-report-on-3-9-bn-adani-investment\/articleshow\/124816591.cms?from=mdr\">rejected<\/a> the allegations, and many supporters of the Indian government have pushed back against the <em>Post<\/em> story.<\/p>\n<p>However, the wide coverage that the allegations have already garnered makes the report awkward for Adani. A core theme of Adani\u2019s messaging in the last few years has been defiance in the face of claims about fraud and other violations; in effect, such allegations haven\u2019t hurt his businesses, which remain resilient. But reports that Adani businesses have received massive amounts of funding from New Delhi fly in the face of this messaging.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h3>FP\u2019s Most Read This Week<\/h3>\n<hr\/>\n<h3>Under the Radar<\/h3>\n<p>U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a notable comment about U.S.-Pakistan relations in an exchange with journalists on his way to Qatar over the weekend. \u201cWe see an opportunity to expand our strategic relationship with Pakistan,\u201d Rubio <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/releases\/office-of-the-spokesperson\/2025\/10\/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-remarks-to-the-press-4\">said<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Though <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2025\/10\/20\/trump-us-pakistan-shift-partnership-india-kashmir\/\">U.S.-Pakistan ties<\/a> have enjoyed an unexpected high during Trump\u2019s second term so far,\u00a0 the main focus has been commercial. Trump and other White House officials have expressed interest in Pakistan\u2019s critical minerals, energy, and cryptocurrency resources. But Rubio\u2019s comments suggest that the Trump administration\u2019s stakes in the relationship could go beyond business.<\/p>\n<p>This would be a major change. Washington has showed little interest in working closely with Islamabad, especially since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. In the final days of the Biden administration, officials <a href=\"https:\/\/tribune.com.pk\/story\/2522456\/us-says-pakistan-was-not-a-technical-ally\">weren\u2019t even willing to acknowledge<\/a> Pakistan as a U.S. ally, though it has major non-NATO ally status.<\/p>\n<p>Rubio didn\u2019t elaborate on how he envisioned a U.S.-Pakistan strategic partnership playing out, and his comments may be more aspirational than specific. But with Pakistan recently becoming a formal part of the Middle East\u2019s security architecture\u2014inking a <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2025\/10\/09\/pakistan-saudi-arabia-defense-pact-india-security-calculus\/\">mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia<\/a>\u2014the Trump administration may see attractive pathways for engagement beyond the commercial space.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2025\/10\/29\/india-russia-oil-sanctions-reliance-trump-trade\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome to Foreign Policy\u2019s South Asia Brief. The highlights this week: New U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies have knock-on effects for India, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi doesn\u2019t make an in-person appearance at the ASEAN summit, and Afghanistan-Pakistan talks break down after cross-border violence. Welcome to Foreign Policy\u2019s South Asia Brief. The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2833","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-politcical-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2833\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/firearmupgrades.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}