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Expectations among analysts and European diplomats are low ahead of a planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest\u2014assuming the meeting even happens.<\/p>\n
Trump announced the Budapest summit on Oct. 16, following a call<\/a> with Putin that Trump described as \u201cvery productive.\u201d Putin reportedly demanded<\/a> that, in return for peace, Ukraine surrender its control over Donetsk, a territory that Russia has been trying and failing to conquer since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Expectations among analysts and European diplomats are low ahead of a planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest\u2014assuming the meeting even happens.<\/p>\n Trump announced the Budapest summit on Oct. 16, following a call<\/a> with Putin that Trump described as \u201cvery productive.\u201d Putin reportedly demanded<\/a> that, in return for peace, Ukraine surrender its control over Donetsk, a territory that Russia has been trying and failing to conquer since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022.<\/p>\n The next day, Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had been hoping to secure deliveries of U.S. Tomahawk missiles<\/a> that would likely be used in Ukraine\u2019s ongoing campaign against Russia\u2019s energy sector.<\/p>\n Instead, Trump reportedly pressured<\/a> Ukraine to give up land to Russia as part of a settlement, although he later endorsed freezing the conflict along its current front lines. Trump had previously said<\/a> that he believed Ukraine could win back all of its territory.<\/p>\n In a seeming repeat of the two leaders\u2019 tense meeting at the White House in February, Trump yelled and swore, according to the Financial Times<\/em><\/a>. Two European diplomats, who spoke to Foreign Policy<\/em> on the condition of anonymity, said that they had been briefed that the meeting was not as tense as described, however.<\/p>\n U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have been tasked with preparing the Budapest summit. However, a meeting between the two to arrange the details has already been postponed<\/a>. On Oct. 21, the White House reportedly said that there would not<\/a> be a Trump-Putin meeting in the \u201cimmediate future.\u201d<\/p>\n John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Kyiv, expressed skepticism that the Russians would be willing to offer the sorts of concessions that would make a meeting worthwhile. \u201cI\u2019m not sure if Budapest is going to happen,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n So far, Russia has not significantly changed its positions since Trump and Putin\u2019s failed summit in Alaska. That meeting did not result in a cease-fire and reportedly left Trump angry after Putin launched into a lecture<\/a> on Russia\u2019s historical role in Ukraine, one of the Russian president\u2019s favorite justifications<\/a> for his war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n Also on Oct. 21, Lavrov rejected<\/a> a cease-fire that would freeze the battlefield along its current front lines, as supported by Trump.<\/p>\n Should the Budapest meeting happen, though, expectations are low. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be another Anchorage\u2014just in Europe,\u201d said one European diplomat, granted anonymity to discuss their candid opinion.<\/p>\n \u201cI think Putin will overpromise and underdeliver,\u201d said another diplomat, which would potentially set up yet another situation in which Trump becomes angry with Russia again.<\/p>\n One likely condition for an eventual peace\u2014a meeting between Putin and Zelensky\u2014\u201cfor sure will not happen,\u201d said a third diplomat. Putin has repeatedly avoided meetings with Zelensky and described<\/a> him as illegitimate.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s pressure on Ukraine and Russia is likely driven by his desire for an advantage in negotiations to achieve his goals, rather than long-term strategy, according to Daniel Fried, a former U.S ambassador to Poland.<\/p>\n \u201cHe says things for immediate tactical advantage,\u201d Fried said. \u201cThe problem with that is he risks having less and less impact, because people won\u2019t take his words seriously.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n