\n<\/p>\n
Welcome to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Southeast Asia Brief.<\/p>\n The highlights this week: ASEAN\u2019s summit<\/strong> makes Kuala Lumpur a geopolitical hub, Laos considers cutting power to crypto miners<\/strong>, a royal baby<\/strong> is announced in Brunei, and \u00a0scam gangs\u2019 state ties<\/strong> are exposed in Cambodia.<\/p>\n Have feedback? Hit reply to let me know your thoughts.<\/em><\/p>\n This year\u2019s summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) runs this Sunday, Oct. 26, through Tuesday. The U.S.-China trade war will be the main item on the agenda, with an expected bilateral discussion of rare earths occuring on the sidelines.<\/p>\n ASEAN has its own priorities too, including the admission of a new member, Timor-Leste.<\/p>\n An unusually prominent lineup of expected guests includes U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Brazilian President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.<\/p>\n World leaders seem to like that the bloc tends to be resolutely impartial in geopolitics, and they are also keen to cultivate friendships in a region central to the global economy.<\/p>\n Still, the most consequential meeting may not be between leaders but, rather, a planned discussion between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.<\/p>\n The pair will discuss China\u2019s sweeping restrictions on exports of rare earths<\/a> and products using them. Trump has responded by threatening new 100 percent tariffs on China as well as controls on exports of software to China.<\/p>\n Bessent and He will also set the tone for a potential meeting<\/a> between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump has suggested that this will take place at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, which will be held from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1. (Xi, as usual, is not attending the ASEAN summit.)<\/p>\n For the ASEAN summit, Trump has said that he will only attend if he can preside<\/a> over the signing of a peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand to cement a cease-fire that he says he played a role in brokering.<\/p>\n And, oh\u2014China can\u2019t be in the room when it happens, at the request of White House officials.<\/p>\n Whether the peace deal will go ahead seems uncertain. As I wrote last week, negotiations between the two nations seem to be breaking down<\/a>. Thailand\u2019s prime minister has also indicated that he\u2019s not interested<\/a> in further U.S. involvement.<\/p>\n ASEAN itself is focused on dealing with the repercussions of the United States becoming an economic rogue state<\/a>.<\/p>\n Attempts to coordinate on this have been limited so far, with countries stampeding to cut individual deals with Trump.<\/p>\n What is scheduled\u2014an upgrade of ASEAN\u2019s trade deal with China and the adoption of the bloc\u2019s new digital economic framework\u2014is not going to set the world on fire. Nonetheless, it does indicate the direction of travel: hedging against the United States by integrating both internally and with external partners.<\/p>\n What\u2019s buzzier is the expectation that the ASEAN Power Grid<\/a> may finally pick up momentum.<\/p>\n The idea of regional integration of electricity grids has been knocking around since the 1980s. But the challenges of decarbonization have given the idea new impetus<\/a>: rain affecting solar panels in Thailand could be balanced by a sunny day in Vietnam.<\/p>\n Any developments here could invigorate the slow and piecemeal energy projects that are already underway across the region, though a project this big remains a very long-term endeavor. It\u2019s worth noting that ASEAN\u2019s largest country, Indonesia, doesn\u2019t even have a single national grid.<\/p>\n Last but not least, Timor-Leste is finally joining<\/a> ASEAN. The two-decade process once prompted President Jos\u00e9 Ramos Horta to complain<\/a> that it was easier to get into heaven than ASEAN. Some think that Timor\u2019s accession might bolster ASEAN\u2019s democratic camp<\/a>, and the United States may benefit from the country\u2019s inclusion in the bloc<\/a>.<\/p>\n However, the thing to watch is Timor\u2019s position<\/a> on Myanmar. Run by former revolutionaries, Timor-Leste has been vocally sympathetic to the National Unity Government currently fighting Myanmar\u2019s ruling junta. But recently, Dili\u2019s push for ASEAN accession has seen a softening of its line on the military rulers. What happens when Timor-Leste is in the tent?<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Laos says no to crypto.<\/strong> Laos\u2019s government is considering ending the provision of electricity to cryptocurrency miners in the first quarter of 2026, according to reporting<\/a> by Reuters.<\/p>\n The government said it was planning to prioritize power for sectors that would contribute more to the economy\u2014such \u00a0artificial intelligence data centers, metals refining, and electric vehicles.<\/p>\n The move represents a sharp shift in strategy from the country, which has looked to crypto to monetize its vast hydroelectric power potential\u2014potential that has seen it dubbed the \u201cbattery of Asia.\u201d<\/p>\n Laos\u2019s entanglement<\/a> with crypto kicked off in 2021, when the government announced that it would allow crypto companies to mine and sell in the country while paying a capped energy fee to do so. That same year, China banned<\/a> crypto mining, prompting many players in what had been the world\u2019s biggest crypto mining market to relocate their operations.<\/p>\n Another incentive seems to have been the dangerous levels of debt<\/a> that had accumulated during the country\u2019s dam-building spree. The plan had been to export green energy and a lot has been sold abroad in recent years.<\/p>\n But the crypto boom has caused headaches. Energy-hungry crypto has caused blackouts during the dry season, when hydropower runs low. And in the wet season, the country generates more than it can export due to a lack of transmission infrastructure.<\/p>\n Plans for a regional grid that would let Laos sell to rich and power-hungry Singapore have stalled. Laos\u2019s state electricity company is being sued<\/a> by a state-owned Chinese construction company over unpaid debts.<\/p>\n Indonesian army clashes with insurgents.<\/strong> The Indonesian army and independence fighters clashed<\/a> in the restive region of Papua on Oct. 15, leaving more than a dozen dead.<\/p>\n In a statement, the Indonesian military claimed that it had killed 14 separatist fighters who had attacked troops while armed with conventional weapons as wells as bows and arrows. The insurgents said the Indonesian military had killed nine civilians.<\/p>\n The clash came as Indonesian troops prepared to assault a rebel post in the village of Soanggama in the Intan Jaya district of the Central Papua province. The Indonesian military claimed that the village has been a hotbed of insurgency.<\/p>\n Fighting in the region seems to have escalated<\/a> this year. While information is hard to confirm, it seems that the Indonesian military has stepped up its operations. And more locals are responding by joining independence fighters in the jungle.<\/p>\n Papua has long been marked by conflict. The ongoing struggle can be traced back to 1962, when the region\u2019s leaders demanded a referendum for independence but instead saw the territory incorporated<\/a> into the Indonesian nation via the \u201cAct of Free Choice,\u201d which saw 1,022 Papuan tribal representatives coerced into voting to join Indonesia.<\/p>\n Brunei\u2019s royal baby.<\/strong> Brunei\u2019s Prince Abdul Mateen, 34, and his wife, Princess Anisha Rosnah, 30, announced<\/a> on Oct. 14 that they are expecting their first child. The prince is only fifth in the line of succession of the oil-rich absolute monarchy, so the political implications of his progeny are limited.<\/p>\n Still, the announcement\u2014broken on Instagram<\/a> with an artistic black-and-white shot\u2014has caused a ripple of interest.<\/p>\n Prince Mateen retains a certain celebrity status, and his wealth and success as an international polo player saw him dubbed<\/a> \u201cAsia\u2019s most eligible bachelor\u201d prior to his wedding.<\/p>\n The wedding<\/a> last year was an extravagant affair that lasted 10 days, attended by royals from around the world and leaders from across Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n 42<\/strong>\u2014That\u2019s how many Chinese J-10 fighter jets<\/a> Indonesia is proposing to buy, with a total price tag of $9 billion.<\/p>\n Indonesia had previously struck a deal with France to buy 42 Rafale jets. While some seem to have already been delivered, Jakarta seems to be hedging its bets.<\/p>\n The J-10\u2019s reported success shooting down Rafale jets during the Pakistan-India<\/a> clash in May is apparently one factor, according to conversations that I\u2019ve had.<\/p>\n Indonesia\u2019s air force already has planes from seven different countries. It makes integration<\/a> a nightmare, but the U.S. arms embargo that was in place for the country from 1999-2005 has left Indonesia wary of relying on any one supplier.<\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n