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Welcome to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Southeast Asia Brief.<\/p>\n The highlights this week: Vietnam struggles to handle damage after Typhoon Matmo<\/strong>, Trump\u2019s unconventional ambassadors<\/strong>, Singapore and Australia\u2019s security upgrade<\/strong>, Malaysia\u2019s soccer naturalization scam<\/strong>, and cease-fire strained<\/strong> at the Thailand-Cambodia border.<\/p>\n Vietnam Struggles After Typhoon Matmo<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Swaths of Vietnam, including the capital of Hanoi, flooded<\/a> early last week after being hit by Typhoon Matmo.<\/p>\n While the flooding has receded, the country is still struggling<\/a> to handle power outages and major property damage in numerous areas.<\/p>\n This was the third major storm<\/a> to hit Vietnam in two weeks, following on from Typhoon Ragasa and Typhoon Bualoi in late September. Other countries, including the Philippines and Thailand, have also been hit hard by storms.<\/p>\n Southeast Asia\u2019s geography, oodles of islands and long coastlines strung along tropical latitudes, makes it vulnerable to storms.<\/p>\n But hydro-meteorological disasters in the region are becoming more frequent and intense, according to a recent report<\/a> by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).<\/p>\n Other factors are making the situation worse. Sea levels are rising, with large parts of major regional cities including Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Yangon, and Bangkok located below sea level. Increasing swaths of the population are settling in vulnerable low-lying areas. Sprawling urbanization replaces absorbent soil with impermeable concrete and tarmac.<\/p>\n As a result, national governments are struggling to forecast and manage the disasters. This has implications beyond the human cost. Disaster recovery is expensive. The political impact can be destabilizing.<\/p>\n In Vietnam this year, natural disasters<\/a> have killed at least 238 people, damaged more than 258,000 homes, and caused economic losses of about $1.4 billion, according to Vietnamese authorities. The government has spoken<\/a> of a \u201ccompound disaster,\u201d each blow amplified by the previous ones. And with key industrial zones<\/a> hit, many people are worrying about the wider economic impact.<\/p>\n The Philippines, too\u2014hit by the same typhoons on top of an earthquake\u2014is similarly reeling<\/a>, as I covered last week. And heavy rain in Thailand last week caused widespread flooding<\/a> that left at least 22 people dead.<\/p>\n The human costs alone can give pause. In the last 32 years, more than 202,000 people in Southeast Asia have died<\/a> due to hydro-meteorological disasters, mostly storms. Millions are displaced very year.<\/p>\n And the economic losses can also be eyewatering, with the cumulative costs of typhoons alone since 1987 running into the tens of billions of dollars<\/a>.<\/p>\n An underrated factor in extreme weather is the political impact. Vietnam has seen grumbling<\/a> about the government failing to provide sufficient warning or properly coordinate relief efforts. The Vietnamese leadership, which is going through a spasm of paranoia about public dissent, is doubtless taking note.<\/p>\n Just across the water, the Philippines in recent weeks has been rocked<\/a> by huge protests over graft in flood defense construction. Top politicians have resigned, and the military has had to publicly declare that despite the entreaties of some, it will not launch a coup. The latest wave of floods will surely only stoke rage over the issue.<\/p>\n The intertwining of disaster and politics is not new. The enormous 2011 floods<\/a> in Thailand intertwined with the fight between the then-newly elected government and its opponents, undermining an effective response and helping to fan political tensions. With the latest round of floods, we are once again seeing arguments<\/a> over who gets the blame.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, in Myanmar in 2008, Cyclone Nargis, which left some 140,000 people dead, may have helped loosen<\/a> the ruling junta\u2019s grip before it launched its brief experiment with democratization in 2011.<\/p>\n Zooming out further, it\u2019s worth considering that many successful states in Southeast Asia have historically hinged much of their power and legitimacy on effective hydraulic management. Angkor\u2014the seat of the great Khmer Empire, which thrived from the ninth to the 15th century\u2014was sustained by an intricate system<\/a> of water management. More recently, the previous Thai monarch was often feted<\/a> for his achievements in this area, often called the \u201cFather of Thai Water Management\u201d and \u201cRoyal Rainmaker.\u201d<\/p>\n As the weather grows wilder and the impacts more severe, don\u2019t be surprised if political turmoil follows.<\/p>\n New U.S. ambassador raises eyebrows.<\/strong> On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate confirmed its latest batch of ambassadors<\/a>. There were some unusual choices, but the appointment garnering the most attention was that of the new ambassador to Singapore, Anjani Sinha. The orthopedic surgeon\u2019s main qualification seems to be that he plays golf with U.S. President Donald Trump and has Donald Trump Jr. as a client. An embarrassing Senate confirmation hearing where Sinha struggled to answer<\/a> basic questions about the U.S. relationship with Singapore attracted a lot of coverage in the country.<\/p>\n Singaporeans, with typical tact, are stressing the potential value of a personal connection. \u201cCertainly better than the normal State Department types who are despised by the MAGA group,\u201d Bilahari Kausikan, a former permanent secretary in Singapore\u2019s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told<\/a> CNA in July.<\/p>\n The nominee for ambassador to Thailand will raise fewer eyebrows. Sergio Gor, a Republican operative who until recently served as director of White House personnel under Trump, is a party operative and Trump loyalist, but partisan ambassadorial appointments are typical for the United States. Meanwhile, the most controversial<\/a> nomination\u2014Nick Adams, a self-declared \u201calpha male\u201d and conservative influencer, for ambassador to Malaysia\u2014remains to be confirmed.<\/p>\n Singapore-Australia ink defense pact.<\/strong> Singapore and Australia signed a new defense cooperation agreement<\/a> last Wednesday. The exact terms of the agreement are to be confirmed, but key points seem to be enhanced access for the two countries\u2019 militaries, defense technology cooperation, strengthening supply chains, and increased cooperation in areas including \u201ccyber and information<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n The two countries have long cultivated close security ties<\/a>, most notably via the Five Power Defence Arrangements\u2014a pact between Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United Kingdom to consult if any party to it is attacked. Still, the move to further strengthen ties should also be seen as a sign of both countries attempting to mitigate uncertainty about the reliability of their main security partner, the United States.<\/p>\n Australia in particular is amping up its connections in the region as it seeks to hedge against China\u2019s rise and U.S. capriciousness. In 2024, it signed a new security agreement with Indonesia<\/a>, though it seems to have read a lot more into its significance<\/a> than the Indonesians did. And it is currently working on an agreement<\/a> to further bolster its already strong security relationship with the Philippines.<\/p>\n China winning the influence race?<\/strong> China is Southeast Asia\u2019s leading partner, according to a new report<\/a> by the Sydney-based Lowy Institute. The United States comes in second. A key difference between the two seems to be that China is influential in all countries in the region via its deep economic integration. Some countries, such as Cambodia, are frankly dependent on China in this regard. The United States, meanwhile, is far stronger when it comes to security relationships, but the strength of these relationships varies enormously country to country. Trump\u2019s actions are likely to erode its position further.<\/p>\n But don\u2019t take this to mean that Southeast Asia is China\u2019s backyard, the report cautions. Collectively, Southeast Asian nations are more important to one another than any external player. Other regional powers and global middle powers\u2014most notably Japan but also Australia, India, Russia, South Korea, and the U.K.\u2014have strong relationships with certain countries or in certain areas.<\/p>\n Malaysia\u2019s fake soccer players.<\/strong> Malaysian soccer has been rocked by the scandal<\/a> that seven players on its national team were allegedly not Malaysian at all. Like many countries hungry for soccer glory, Malaysia has in recent years looked to bolster its team by finding successful players abroad who have a familial connection, however tenuous, to the country and naturalizing them.<\/p>\n However, an investigation by the international soccer association FIFA found that seven of the players<\/a> who were powering Malaysia\u2019s return to the top of Southeast Asian soccer don\u2019t have a drop of Malaysian blood in them. Apparently, according to FIFA, birth certificates showing all of the players to have a Malaysian grandparent were forged. The seven players have been banned<\/a> from playing for 12 months, and the Football Association of Malaysia (FAM) has been slapped with a $437,000 fine.<\/p>\n FAM is digging in and appealing<\/a> the findings. But the national response seems to have shifted from defensive to embarrassed<\/a> and angry. If FIFA\u2019s findings are proved true, Malaysia could even be banned from the 2027 Asian Cup.<\/p>\n Photo of the Week<\/p>\n