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Welcome back to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Situation Report, where we are wondering how serious U.S. President Donald Trump was this week when he discussed<\/a> the possibility of signing an executive order officially renaming the sport of soccer as \u201cfootball\u201d in the United States. In the meantime, there are plenty of more pressing geopolitical issues to discuss.<\/p>\n Alright, here\u2019s what\u2019s on tap for the day: Israel<\/strong>\u2019s strikes in Syria<\/strong> derail talk of normalization<\/strong>, Russia<\/strong> continues to bomb Ukraine<\/strong> despite Trump\u2019s economic threats<\/strong>, and Iran<\/strong> faces a \u201csnapback<\/strong>\u201d ultimatum.<\/p>\n The Trump administration in recent months has pushed for the new government in Syria to join the Abraham Accords and normalize ties with Israel. But Israeli strikes on Syrian government forces this week are indicative of the numerous obstacles standing in the way of the two longtime adversaries establishing formal diplomatic relations.<\/p>\n The strikes came as the Trump administration had begun establishing friendlier ties with the government of interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, including Trump lifting sanctions<\/a> on Syria in late June. Now, the situation threatens to derail the White House\u2019s goal of seeing Syria stabilize as it transitions out of a devastating 13-year civil war.<\/p>\n U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday said<\/a> that the U.S. was \u201cvery concerned\u201d by the Israeli strikes, and the Trump administration has called for de-escalation.<\/p>\n Given the situation, it\u2019s \u201cdefinitely way too early to think about\u201d Syria joining the Abraham Accords right now, Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told SitRep.<\/p>\n \u201cLeave the Druze alone.\u201d<\/strong> The Israeli military has been active in Syria since opposition forces led by Sharaa overthrew the country\u2019s longtime leader, Bashar al-Assad, in late 2024, but this week\u2019s strikes are Israel\u2019s most serious escalation against the new Syrian government to date. On Wednesday, Israeli strikes in Damascus damaged<\/a> the Syrian military\u2019s headquarters and hit near the presidential palace.<\/p>\n The Israeli government said the strikes over the past few days were meant to protect the Druze, a religious minority in Syria that also has an influential community in Israel, and to maintain a demilitarized zone along Israel\u2019s border. The strikes came after Syrian government forces moved to intervene in clashes between Druze and Bedouin tribes in the southern Syrian city of Suweyda.<\/p>\n Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Wednesday called<\/a> for Damascus to \u201cleave the Druze in [Suwayda] alone,\u201d and vowed that attacks on Syrian forces would continue until they withdraw from that city.<\/p>\n Druze leaders and the Syrian government announced a cease-fire on Wednesday. But the situation remains volatile and stands as another example of how sectarian violence has threatened to undermine the new Syrian government.<\/p>\n Keeping Syria \u201cbroken.\u201d<\/strong> Normalization is a \u201cmuch more difficult thing for Syria to accept now,\u201d Zelin said, adding that much of what Israel has done in Syria since the Assad regime fell has been \u201cdestabilizing\u201d and driven by a post-Oct. 7, 2023, security doctrine designed to \u201celiminate all threats everywhere, even if it\u2019s at the expense of potentially building a quiet border in a new relationship.\u201d<\/p>\n Though Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar in late June signaled<\/a> that Israel was open to expanding the Abraham Accords, and specifically mentioned Syria in that regard, the Israeli military\u2019s operations in Syria\u2014along with issues like Israel\u2019s occupation of the Golan Heights and the ongoing war in Gaza\u2014make experts doubtful that normalization is in the cards anytime soon.<\/p>\n Joshua Landis, head of the Center for Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma, told SitRep that Israel\u2019s apparent openness to warmer relations with Syria recently has been designed to \u201cplease America, but I don\u2019t think that it\u2019s interested in serious talks.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a performative situation\u201d and \u201cKabuki theater,\u201d Landis added.<\/p>\n Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would prefer to keep Syria \u201cbroken\u201d and in a situation where it\u2019s \u201cincapable of hurting Israel,\u201d Landis said. \u201cIsrael\u2019s policy of protecting the Druze and forbidding the Syrian military from moving south of Damascus is designed to keep it that way and to establish, in a sense, a buffer region,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Conflicting views.<\/strong> \u201cThe U.S. and Israel have diametrically opposed assessments of Syria,\u201d Landis said. \u201cThe U.S. is very concerned, because its two leading allies in the region, Israel and Turkey, are at loggerheads on this issue.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump doesn\u2019t want to see Israel and Turkey, one of the Sharaa government\u2019s primary allies, end up in a conflict. But at the end of the day, Israel \u201cdoesn\u2019t trust\u201d Sharaa\u2014a former al Qaeda fighter with a complicated past<\/a>\u2014and still views him as a terrorist, Landis said.<\/p>\n But this is not to say that Sharaa is ready to rush toward normalization, either. He also has a lot of domestic factors to consider, including the fact that Sharaa\u2019s supporters include jihadists who are hostile to Israel and cheered on the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, Zelin said.<\/p>\n Israel might be betting that Sharaa\u2019s government won\u2019t last, which could also be a hurdle to substantive talks on normalization. \u201cI imagine there are plenty of people in Israel who think this government may fail,\u201d Landis said. \u201cAnd therefore, why would we make a deal?\u201d<\/p>\n The State Department fired more than 1,350 employees last Friday, including 1,107 civil servants and 246 foreign service officers. This is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to align U.S. foreign policy with the White House\u2019s \u201cAmerica First\u201d agenda. Critics say it will deprive the country of vital expertise amid an array of global crises.<\/p>\n What should be high on your radar, if it isn\u2019t already.<\/em><\/p>\n Russia keeps calm, carries on bombing.<\/strong> Trump this week warned<\/a> Moscow that he would impose secondary tariffs on Russian energy exports if a cease-fire deal is not reached in Ukraine in the next 50 days. Russia effectively responded by continuing to bomb Ukraine<\/a>, in a sign that Trump\u2019s ultimatum isn\u2019t having much of an impact on Moscow so far.<\/p>\n Trump in recent weeks has shifted toward being more critical of the Kremlin and supportive of Kyiv, including announcing a new plan to provide weapons to Ukraine this week. Though Kyiv applauded Trump over the weapons plan, critics have still questioned<\/a> why Trump has given Russia a 50-day window to continue an aggressive summer offensive in Ukraine rather than moving to impose economic penalties immediately.<\/p>\n Iran faces threat of \u201csnapback\u201d sanctions. <\/strong>The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have agreed<\/a> to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran if there is no significant progress toward a new nuclear agreement by the end of August. Without concrete progress toward an agreement, the three European countries said they would trigger the \u201csnapback\u201d mechanism restoring sanctions that were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, which the U.K., France, and Germany were party to along with Russia, China, the United States, and the European Union.<\/p>\n Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 deal during his first term, though Iran was in compliance with it at the time. Iran eventually abandoned the 2015 agreement and began enriching uranium up to 60 percent\u2014close to weapons-grade levels of 90 percent\u2014raising concerns worldwide and fueling regional tensions that eventually spiraled into the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran. The conflict ended after the U.S. bombed Iran\u2019s key nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n Despite Trump\u2019s assertion that Iran\u2019s nuclear program has been obliterated, questions remain about the extent of the damage from the U.S. and Israeli strikes\u2014and Iran has since suspended cooperation<\/a> with the U.N.\u2019s nuclear watchdog.<\/p>\n Deadly stampede in Gaza.<\/strong> At least 20 people were killed in a stampede at an aid distribution site in Gaza run by a controversial U.S.- and Israel-backed organization, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). There are conflicting accounts on what caused the stampede, but the fatal episode follows a broader trend of deadly incidents<\/a> tied to the divisive aid distribution system, which has been boycotted by the United Nations.<\/p>\n Close to 700 people have been killed in the vicinity of GHF sites since late May, per data<\/a> from the U.N. released this week.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Trump administration is continuing to press for a cease-fire in Gaza. The White House has expressed optimism about a deal in the near future, though negotiations continue to hit an array of roadblocks\u2014including a controversial proposal<\/a> from Israel\u2019s defense minister to move much of Gaza\u2019s population into a small, closed-off zone in the enclave\u2019s south, which critics say would violate international law.<\/p>\n\u2018Too Early\u2019 to Talk Israel-Syria Normalization<\/h3>\n
Let\u2019s Get Personnel<\/h3>\n
On the Button<\/h3>\n
Snapshot<\/h3>\n