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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been thinking about bombing Iran\u2019s nuclear program for a long time. But will it be enough to secure his political future, much less his legacy?<\/p>\n
Amid lagging<\/a>\u00a0poll numbers, Netanyahu has been privately\u00a0lamenting<\/a> \u201cwithout victory in Gaza, we have nothing to go to elections with.\u201d His\u00a0controversial<\/a> efforts to exempt ultra-Orthodox Jews from conscription have only made things worse. An accommodation reached on June 11 kept his coalition intact but was described by military reservists<\/a>\u00a0and their families as a capitulation to the draft dodgers.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been thinking about bombing Iran\u2019s nuclear program for a long time. But will it be enough to secure his political future, much less his legacy?<\/p>\n Amid lagging<\/a>\u00a0poll numbers, Netanyahu has been privately\u00a0lamenting<\/a> \u201cwithout victory in Gaza, we have nothing to go to elections with.\u201d His\u00a0controversial<\/a> efforts to exempt ultra-Orthodox Jews from conscription have only made things worse. An accommodation reached on June 11 kept his coalition intact but was described by military reservists<\/a>\u00a0and their families as a capitulation to the draft dodgers.<\/p>\n Halting Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions has, famously, been Netanyahu\u2019s obsession<\/a>\u00a0since the 1990s. Despite his\u00a0reputation<\/a>\u00a0for being risk-averse, and despite potential\u00a0pushback<\/a>\u00a0from Washington, Netanyahu\u2019s willingness to use force was\u00a0hiding in plain sight<\/a>. Once Israel believed that Iran had taken decisive steps toward nuclear breakout, there was every reason to think Netanyahu would launch a military campaign to stop it.<\/p>\n Exploiting a narrow window of surprise before a sixth round of U.S.-Iranian\u00a0talks<\/a>, Israel struck. Invoking the legendary British leader who is among Netanyahu\u2019s heroes, Netanyahu\u2019s elder son rushed to\u00a0call his father<\/a>\u00a0\u201cthe Churchill of our time.\u201d<\/p>\n As always, though, the critical dilemma for Israel\u2014and for its prime minister\u2014remains how to parley battlefield success into an improved future. Still embroiled in numerous hot conflicts, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are overstretched. A sleepless Israeli home front, although resilient, is reeling from the extensive\u00a0damage<\/a>\u00a0caused by frequent Iranian barrages, which are expected to intensify in the coming days. It may not be long either until, as in the wake of Oct. 7, 2023, traditional fault lines in Israeli society\u00a0resurface<\/a>.<\/p>\n Of further concern will be the sustainability of support from Washington, which has provided critical armaments and also assisted in intercepting Iranian\u00a0retaliatory<\/a>\u00a0attacks. Israel cannot destroy Iran\u2019s path to a nuclear bomb if the underground Fordow enrichment facility remains intact. Netanyahu is\u00a0hoping<\/a>\u00a0that President Donald Trump will commit U.S. assets for that purpose. Trump\u2014who\u00a0changed<\/a>\u00a0his tone to embrace Israel\u2019s raid after the fact\u2014is still noncommittal on that score,\u00a0emphasizing<\/a>\u00a0instead that \u201cIran and Israel should make a deal.\u201d But his latest posts<\/a> on social media indicate that he may be inclined to oblige. His calculus will surely be influenced by a raging\u00a0debate<\/a>\u00a0within the Republican Party between pro-Israel interventionists and MAGA isolationists.<\/p>\n Much will revolve around Netanyahu\u2019s formulation of a credible endgame for this conflict\u2014something he has struggled to do in Gaza with grave humanitarian and strategic consequences. The IDF is clamoring for more time to continue defanging the threat from Iran, but circumstances are dynamic. Netanyahu will be forced to choose between eventually calling off the attack and reaching an agreement with Iran\u2019s current rulers or plowing ahead in the uncertain hope of destroying Iran\u2019s nuclear program or\u00a0toppling<\/a>\u00a0its regime. Distrustful of the Iranian clerical government\u2014\u201cthey lie, they cheat, they string the U.S. along,\u201d the prime minister told<\/a> ABC News on Monday\u2014he eschews any diplomatic bargain. But Trump, who is floating<\/a> the idea of dispatching Vice President J.D. Vance and presidential envoy Steve Witkoff to pursue dialogue with Iran, holds enormous leverage over the prime minister\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n Netanyahu is also at a crossroads domestically. His Knesset majority has been\u00a0running<\/a>\u00a0out of steam. But he now feels buoyed by the success of\u00a0Operation Rising Lion<\/a>. He\u2019s also enjoying a restored relationship with Trump, who recently said<\/a>, \u201cWe get along very well and I think we have great respect for each other.\u201d<\/p>\n The easiest thing for Netanyahu would be to stay the course. That would mean bolstering alliances with his fundamentalist, right-wing partners and continuing to cater to their various sectarian demands, including continuing the war in Gaza in pursuit of \u201ctotal victory<\/a>.\u201d Another plausible, if risky, scenario would be to advance the date of elections\u2014scheduled<\/a>\u00a0presently for October 2026\u2014with the aim of capitalizing on his recovered popularity and cementing his hold on power.<\/p>\n At this point in his long career, Netanyahu\u2019s concern for his legacy could also lead him to contemplate other, less likely, options. He could try to rehabilitate his image, which was tarnished severely on Oct. 7, by signing a plea bargain in his corruption trials and attempting a semi-graceful exit from office. Alternatively, he might form a new cabinet that includes more centrist parties and then drive to bring the hostages home, secure a cease-fire in\u00a0Gaza<\/a>, and normalize relations with\u00a0Saudi Arabia<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Syria<\/a>. These would be historic achievements.<\/p>\n Netanyahu is fond of\u00a0saying<\/a>\u00a0that Israel is \u201cchanging the Middle East.\u201d But change could end many different ways, both for the region and for Israeli politics. Winston Churchill won an existential war only to be rejected by his voters. The same might well happen to Netanyahu.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n This post is part of FP\u2019s ongoing coverage<\/i>.\u00a0<\/i>Read more here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n