\n<\/p>\n
LAS VEGAS \u2014 Can Kansas City\u2019s exceptional fortune continue for a sixth consecutive season?<\/p>\n
Some say that prosperous run expired Feb. 9 in New Orleans, where the Eagles smashed the Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX.<\/p>\n
According to stat-based Pythagorean extrapolations, the Chiefs (17-3) accumulated 5.2 more victories than they deserved because of favorable bounces and certain whistles, or non-calls, by officials.<\/p>\n
Moreover, the Chiefs\u2019 luck factor since 2020, OddsBreakers handicapper Kiev O\u2019Neil said, \u201ceasily is tops in the league.\u201d<\/p>\n
He espouses \u201cpythag\u201d theories, charts them annually and documents that Kansas City was No. 1 in 2020, second in \u201922 and seventh in \u201923.<\/p>\n
Not so coincidentally, the Chiefs are 37-13 in one-score games, decided by eight points or fewer, since \u201920, a stretch in which they\u2019re an NFL-best 79-21 overall. K.C. moneyline action has been a gold mine.<\/p>\n
Until now. O\u2019Neil believes the Chiefs\u2019 lucky run begins fizzling. Among his early team-win plays, he bet Chiefs under 11.5 at -120, or risk $120 to win $100.<\/p>\n
\u201cMassive regression coming,\u201d O\u2019Neil said, \u201cwith an aging team.\u201d<\/p>\n
O\u2019Neil also bought Chargers over 9.5 (-110), trumpeting coach Jim Harbaugh, and Saints under 6.5 (-165).<\/p>\n
(Odds and prices are subject to change.)<\/p>\n
\u201cThe fourth-place schedule is much harder, with the 49ers and Bears there,\u201d O\u2019Neil said of the Saints, \u201cand [quarterback Derek] Carr retired.\u201d<\/p>\n
To poach post-draft\/pre-camp win-totals value, I tapped a select group of \u2019cappers whose advice I heeded last year to go 4-0 in such action.<\/p>\n
(I hit both Raiders under 6.5 (+100) and Panthers under 5.5 (+100), plus double-unit action on 49ers under 11.5 (-140) and Patriots under 5 (-130).)<\/p>\n
All unders, since certain experts have convinced me how it\u2019s wiser to wager on something to not happen rather than on something occurring. Too much can go wrong, they opine, and usually does.<\/p>\n
Plus, the public often favors over, creating advantages. For instance, DraftKings opened its totals two months ago with numbers nearly mirroring the actual amount of NFL victories that will happen this season.<\/p>\n
By Monday, though, bets have pumped those totals up 10 triumphs. Totals on the Browns (to 6.5) and Giants, Jets and Titans (all to 7.5) have each been boosted by two games.<\/p>\n
DK director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello told me prices reflect those changes. For instance, Jets under 5.5 (+125) is now under 7.5 (-250).<\/p>\n
\u201cThe public absolutely loves overs,\u201d Long Island handicapper Tom Barton said, \u201cbecause they\u2019re betting \u2018their\u2019 team.\u201d<\/p>\n
Matt Youmans, senior broadcaster\/writer for the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) who went 7-0 on totals in \u201924, has bought Saints under 6.5 (-155) and Steelers over 8.5 (+110).<\/p>\n
The 5-12 Saints were one of 10 teams to finish last season with five victories or fewer, Youmans notes, and he envisions scant improvement with rookie coach Kellen Moore and questionable quarterbacks.<\/p>\n
Youmans touts Steelers coach Mike Tomlin\u2019s sterling track record and Pittsburgh\u2019s offseason moves, and he pegs it as quarterback Aaron Rodgers\u2019s next landing spot.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe probably has one decent year left in him,\u201d Youmans said. \u201cRodgers stunk last year, and he\u2019s a diva with baggage. But he should be in better shape, and this is his last shot.\u201d<\/p>\n
In Boston, BetMGM\u2019s \u201cBet Sweats\u201d co-host Sam Panayotovich has Chargers over 9.5 (+110), on an improved quarterback in Justin Herbert, the drafting of tailback Omarion Hampton and a stalwart offensive line, and Broncos under 8.5 (-125).<\/p>\n
\u201cEverything broke right for Denver last year, and it won 10 games,\u201d Panayotovich said. \u201cI expect regression there.\u201d<\/p>\n
Barton got in early on Giants over 5.5 (+125), favoring an elite pass-rushing front line. He hopes Bengals 10 and Niners 11 both rise, aiming to play both under.<\/p>\n
Former UNLV quarterback Jon Denton was raised in Vegas, is a family man in Iowa and fares well betting sports, especially football. He also knows casinos.<\/p>\n
He knows books know the psyche of their clientele, 80% of who, Denton said, \u201care there for a good time. Think about craps. Your odds of winning are better if you bet \u2018Don\u2019t Pass,\u2019 but who wants to be \u2018that guy\u2019 at the table?\u201d<\/p>\n
Denton likes Raiders over 6.5 (-145), as owner Mark Davis has deigned more power to minority owner Tom Brady in luring coach Pete Carroll and Geno Smith, a \u201cdrastic upgrade\u201d at quarterback.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat a difference from this time last year,\u201d Denton says. \u201cNew regime. New QB. Running game should be effective. Defensively, they are top-third in the league. I think they get to this total.\u201d<\/p>\n
He\u2019s also on Lions, 15-3 last season but now without offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (Bears\u2019 head coach) and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (Jets\u2019 head coach), over 10.5 (-110).<\/p>\n
\u201cI expect regression, but there\u2019s cushion in that five-win drop from last year,\u201d Denton says. \u201cAn elite offensive line, healthy defense. [Is losing both] coordinators worth five wins? Favorable division, too.\u201d<\/p>\n
Based on these opinions, on Tuesday at the Westgate SuperBook I bought Chiefs under 11.5 (-130), Saints under 5.5 (-120), Broncos under 9 (+110) and Bengals under 10 (-120).<\/p>\n
Via Denton\u2019s cue, I grabbed Bears under 8.5 (-110). Faults and flaws, under another new regime with a first-time head coach, will be understandable if not expected. The Bears\u2019 \u201cpythag\u201d projection is 6.7; another comfortable cushion.<\/p>\n
All under action. Hopefully my luck, unlike the Chiefs\u2019, continues.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n