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Welcome back to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Situation Report, where we\u2019re still processing the news<\/a> that U.S. President Donald Trump has removed National Security Advisor Mike Waltz from his post and moved him over to become Trump\u2019s nominee to serve as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Read more on that here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, here\u2019s what\u2019s on tap for the day: Washington\u2019s options to manage an India-Pakistan military crisis<\/strong>, U.N. fears about a dwindling two-state solution<\/strong> in the Middle East, and Russia<\/strong>\u2019s foot-dragging on a Ukraine peace deal<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Tensions between India and Pakistan remain on a knife edge in the wake of a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians last week. New Delhi has accused<\/a> Islamabad of backing the militants who carried out the attack and vowed to retaliate militarily. (Islamabad has denied involvement.) Pakistan\u2019s information minister cited<\/a> \u201ccredible intelligence\u201d on Wednesday indicating that an Indian attack would take place within 24 to 36 hours.<\/p>\n One big question right now is what role Washington might play as a key partner to both countries.<\/p>\n Whither Washington? <\/strong>The United States, like most other countries, has a keen interest in ensuring that the saber-rattling between the two nuclear-armed South Asian countries does not escalate into an all-out war. But Washington may have more levers than most to curb such an escalation.<\/p>\n The messaging thus far from the Trump administration has been mixed; U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke<\/a> to both<\/a> Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar on Wednesday, urging both to \u201cde-escalate tensions\u201d and \u201cmaintain peace and security\u201d in the region. Trump, however, had said<\/a> in the wake of the attack that both countries would \u201cget it figured out one way or the other.\u201d<\/p>\n The U.S.-India relationship, particularly in the area of defense, has deepened in recent years and flourished under the Biden administration, with deals<\/a> for the joint production of fighter jet engines and the sale of U.S. drones to India signed during Modi\u2019s 2022 visit to Washington.<\/p>\n But Washington\u2019s military relationship with Islamabad dates back much further, with U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets and weapons making up the backbone of Pakistan\u2019s arsenal\u2014though U.S. concerns about Pakistani support for terrorism have caused more than a few hiccups<\/a> in the past.<\/p>\n Leverage.<\/strong> The Trump administration reportedly exempted<\/a> a $397 million package for Pakistan\u2019s F-16s from its massive foreign aid cuts earlier this year, which allegedly included a monitoring program to ensure that the jets were used for counterterrorism and not against India. It is not clear the extent to which that is official policy, and Pakistan\u2019s use of the jet against India<\/a> in 2019 did not yield any real consequences from the previous Trump administration.<\/p>\n The Pentagon declined to comment to SitRep on details about the monitoring of Pakistan\u2019s F-16s. The State Department did not offer a comment.<\/p>\n Trump had denied<\/a> Pakistan F-16 upgrades during his first administration, citing the terrorism concerns, but the Biden administration reversed course in 2022 and signed<\/a> a deal worth up to $450 million. But U.S. officials have previously expressed displeasure<\/a> at the jets being used against India, and doing so again could jeopardize future upgrade and sustainment packages.<\/p>\n Lindsey Ford, who served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia and the senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council under the Biden administration, told SitRep that other levers Washington could use to pressure Islamabad include adding Pakistan back to the Financial Action Task Force\u2019s \u201cgray list<\/a>\u201d\u2014which heightens scrutiny of countries accused of money laundering or terror financing and impacts their ability to attract foreign investment\u2014or removing<\/a> it from the U.S. International Military Education and Training Program, which Pakistan is the largest beneficiary of.<\/p>\n Right to self-defense.<\/strong> India, meanwhile, may benefit from a bit more latitude in Washington in its response\u2014albeit with limits.<\/p>\n \u201cI think we have to acknowledge that India has a right to defend itself, and it will expect the same acknowledgment of that fact as the United States and other partners gave to Israel when Israel was attacked,\u201d Ford said. \u201cOf course, if you\u2019re looking at the Israel analogy, there will also be a strong concern among partner nations [about] what the response looks like.\u201d<\/p>\n A former U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to speak candidly about intergovernmental discussions, summarized the likely U.S. message to India thus: \u201cYes, we\u2019re here to help you, let us know how we can be useful, but let\u2019s also not go down a path that blows this thing up in a way that becomes a long-term drag on everything that we\u2019re trying to achieve in the Indo-Pacific.\u201d<\/p>\n Republican Sen. David Perdue of Georgia was confirmed<\/a> on Tuesday as the new U.S. ambassador to China. Perdue will assume the role amid historic tensions between China and the United States on issues ranging from trade and tariffs to Taiwan. Ahead of the confirmation vote, Senate Foreign Relations Chair Jim Risch emphasized the contentious state of affairs between the two countries and the challenges that Perdue will face as a result. \u201cSen. Perdue, you have a heavy work cut out for you,\u201d Risch said<\/a>.<\/p>\n What should be high on your radar, if it isn\u2019t already.<\/em><\/p>\n Can a two-state solution be saved?<\/strong> U.N. chief Ant\u00f3nio Guterres on Tuesday called<\/a> for countries to \u201ctake irreversible action towards implementing a two-state solution\u201d to the Israel-Palestine conflict \u201cbefore it is too late.\u201d Guterres\u2019s comments came ahead of a U.N. conference in June that will focus on a two-state solution, which France and Saudi Arabia are set to co-host. French President Emmanuel Macron recently signaled<\/a> that France could soon move to recognize a Palestinian state, possibly at the June conference.<\/p>\n It\u2019s widely agreed that a two-state solution is virtually impossible as things stand, with the war in Gaza ongoing and the current Israeli government opposed to Palestinian statehood.<\/p>\n The second Trump administration has also broken from decades of U.S. policy by not backing a two-state solution. Trump\u2019s push for the United States to take over Gaza is fundamentally at odds with this goal. The U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, also has a long record of opposing a two-state solution.<\/p>\n Along these lines, Guterres warned on Tuesday that \u201cthe promise of a two-state solution is at risk of dwindling to the point of disappearance.\u201d<\/p>\n Moscow tells Trump to slow down. <\/strong>As Trump continues to push for a rapid end to the Russia-Ukraine war, Moscow is effectively telling the White House to pump the brakes.<\/p>\n The Kremlin said<\/a> on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to a peace deal but added that it\u2019s not going to happen as quickly as Trump wants because the conflict is too complicated.<\/p>\n There are reasons to be skeptical that Putin genuinely desires an end to the war, despite Russia unilaterally announcing a three-day cease-fire for early May. Russia continues to pummel Ukraine with devastating strikes and reject Kyiv\u2019s calls for an unconditional cease-fire.<\/p>\n Trump appears to be growing impatient with Russia as the fighting rages on, recently stating that Putin might be \u201ctapping\u201d him along and raising the possibility of new economic penalties on Russia. The Trump administration has also signaled that it could soon abandon its efforts to achieve a peace deal if there\u2019s not more progress ASAP.<\/p>\nUnder Pressure<\/h3>\n
Let\u2019s Get Personnel<\/h3>\n
On the Button<\/h3>\n