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Welcome back to Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019s Situation Report, where we are taking inspiration from the Japanese town that assembled<\/a> a 3D-printed train station in six hours\u2014before the day\u2019s first train arrived at 5.45 a.m.\u2014to hopefully file this newsletter before our deadline next week (with apologies to our editor for this week\u2019s delay).<\/p>\n Alright, here\u2019s what\u2019s on tap for the day: The United States and Iran hold nuclear talks<\/strong>, a U.S. general warns against pulling U.S. troops<\/strong> from Europe, and new details on Meta\u2019s courtship of Beijing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n The United States and Iran are set to hold high-level talks on Tehran\u2019s nuclear program on Saturday, as U.S. President Donald Trump hints at possible military action if diplomacy fails.<\/p>\n \u201cIf the talks aren\u2019t successful with Iran, I think Iran is going to be in great danger,\u201d Trump said<\/a> Monday.<\/p>\n Trump, who fancies himself a skilled dealmaker, is hoping to reach an agreement that prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, which has been a top goal of Washington and its allies for years. Meanwhile, Iran, which is suffering economically and strategically weakened<\/a>, wants sanctions relief and to avoid a confrontation with a far greater military power.<\/p>\n Both countries feel a sense of urgency surrounding this issue for different reasons, and they also face their own set of constraints heading into such negotiations.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a breakdown of the situation, the risks for both sides, and how they reached this point.<\/p>\n What\u2019s happening?<\/strong> Trump on Monday announced that direct nuclear talks were underway\u2014and that a \u201cvery big meeting\u201d will take place on Saturday in Oman.<\/p>\n Iran insists that the talks are indirect and will be mediated by Oman\u2019s foreign minister, contradicting Trump\u2014which is indicative of the myriad disagreements between the two countries as they head into the high-stakes meeting.<\/p>\n \u201cWe will meet in Oman on Saturday for indirect negotiations. It is as much an opportunity as it is a test,\u201d Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, who will represent Iran in the talks, wrote in a Washington Post<\/em> op-ed<\/a> published Tuesday.<\/p>\n Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, who has been the administration\u2019s lead negotiator on issues from Ukraine to Gaza, is poised to represent the United States in the talks. Witkoff may not travel to Oman if Iran refuses a face-to-face meeting, according to a report<\/a> in the Post<\/em>.<\/p>\n The Trump administration has also offered mixed messages on the nature of Saturday\u2019s talks. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce told reporters on Tuesday that what\u2019s happening is a \u201cmeeting\u201d and not a \u201cnegotiation.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s touching base,\u201d Bruce said.<\/p>\n But both sides seem to genuinely want a deal.<\/p>\n A sense of urgency.<\/strong> \u201cTrump wants to do this and then be done with it\u201d so he can spend time on other issues in the regional file such as Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization and U.S. economic ties with the Gulf, Gregory Brew, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group and an expert on Iran, told SitRep.<\/p>\n \u201cPutting Iran in a box containing its nuclear program, addressing that issue that\u2019s been driving regional instability, and getting it done now frees them up for achieving other policy objectives later in the term,\u201d Brew said, which helps explain why the Trump administration appears to be \u201cin such a rush to get this done now.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAnother source of urgency is the sense that Iran is very close to developing a weapon. It has a very large stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent,\u201d Brew said.<\/p>\n An additional issue hanging over the process is the prospect of the reimposition\u2014or \u201csnapback\u201d\u2014of U.N. sanctions on Iran that were lifted in conjunction with the 2015 nuclear deal. The snapback mechanism expires in October, and the process to reinstitute them would have to begin in July. This is an \u201cimportant source of leverage\u201d for the United States, Brew said, and the time constraints surrounding it are one of many reasons Washington has to pursue a deal as soon as possible.<\/p>\n Israel, which views the prospect of a nuclear Iran as an existential threat, is pushing for Trump to pursue the Libya model\u2014in reference to Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi reaching an agreement with the United States in 2003 to dismantle his country\u2019s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. That ultimately didn\u2019t work out so well for Qaddafi, who was overthrown years later by U.S.-backed rebels, and Iran has rejected this approach.<\/p>\n \u201cIf it can be done diplomatically in a full way the way it was done in Libya, I think that would be a good thing,\u201d Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the White House on Monday. \u201cBut whatever happens, we have to make sure that Iran does not have nuclear weapons.\u201d<\/p>\n In late March, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said the Trump administration is seeking the \u201cfull dismantlement\u201d of Iran\u2019s nuclear program. But it\u2019s possible that Trump could be open to a deal with less maximalist terms. \u201cTrump is going to do what he wants,\u201d Brew said while underscoring that \u201cthe Iranians will under no circumstances accept a Libya-style deal.\u201d<\/p>\n What are the stakes?<\/strong> Trump has warned<\/a> Iran that it would face \u201cbombing the likes of which they have never seen before\u201d if a deal is not reached and reiterated this ultimatum on Wednesday.<\/p>\n \u201cIf it requires military, we\u2019re going to have military,\u201d Trump said<\/a>. The president said Israel would spearhead such an operation but added, \u201cNo one leads us. We do what we want.\u201d<\/p>\n Though Trump campaigned on \u201cno new wars\u201d and could face opposition from his base and isolationist Republicans in Washington if he greenlit strikes against Iran, the United States recently ramped up<\/a> its military presence in the Middle East, and the president\u2019s threats are seemingly being taken seriously by Tehran.<\/p>\n \u201cTrump and Israel\u2019s efforts to create a credible military threat against Iran have succeeded,\u201d Brew said. \u201cThe Iranians are positioning themselves to be prepared for military escalation should diplomacy fail.\u201d<\/p>\n Still, Iran would clearly like to avoid such an outcome. \u201cTo move forward today, we first need to agree that there can be no \u2018military option,\u2019 let alone a \u2018military solution,\u2019\u201d Aragchi wrote in his Tuesday op-ed. \u201cWe cannot imagine President Trump wanting to become another U.S. president mired in a catastrophic war in the Middle East.\u201d<\/p>\n This all comes at an extremely precarious moment in the Middle East. The war in Gaza has raised tensions and stoked conflict across the region. Beyond its war against Hamas in the coastal territory, Israel has also fought against Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and traded direct attacks with Iran itself. Iran and its proxies have been badly bruised and battered in the process, raising concerns that Tehran could view pursuing a nuclear weapon as a strong means of reestablishing deterrence. Hard-liners in the Iranian government have openly flirted with weaponization<\/a> in the past year.<\/p>\n From Israel\u2019s perspective, there has almost never been a better time to go after Iran\u2019s nuclear program. \u201cThe Israelis have been pushing very hard on using military force against Iran because from their point of view, Iran is weak. There is a window of opportunity for striking the program. That window will close once Iran is able to rebuild its air defenses,\u201d Brew said.<\/p>\n But while the United States has overwhelming superiority over Iran in terms of conventional military capabilities, a military approach to taking out Iran\u2019s nuclear program would likely only have limited success and could cause more problems in the long run, Brew said.<\/p>\n How did we get here?<\/strong> In many ways, what\u2019s happening right now all traces back to Trump\u2019s first term and his decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. That agreement, which was negotiated under the Obama administration, was designed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump was heavily critical of the deal, contending that it didn\u2019t go far enough to address issues such as Iran\u2019s ballistic missiles and proxy groups, and pulled the United States out in 2018.<\/p>\n In the time since, Iran has effectively abandoned the 2015 pact, which placed limits on uranium enrichment, and today is far closer to developing a nuclear weapon than it was when the agreement was still intact. Iran has enriched uranium up to 60 percent<\/a>, putting it in range of weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. And it\u2019s estimated that Iran\u2019s breakout time to a nuclear weapon could be a matter of weeks<\/a>.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s nuclear advancements have raised pressure for Washington and its allies, particularly Israel, to take action\u2014even as the U.S. intelligence community continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. Tehran also maintains that it has no desire for nuclear weapons, but Iranian uranium enrichment continues to make the United States and its allies nervous.<\/p>\n Along these lines, Trump sent a letter<\/a> to Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, last month calling for talks, giving Tehran a two-month deadline to reach a deal.<\/p>\n The Biden administration tried and failed to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, but Trump may be in a better negotiating position.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s leadership is \u201cconscious of their weakness\u201d at the moment and knows they\u2019re on the backfoot, Brew said, pointing to widespread domestic discontent over the country\u2019s ailing economy, among other problems.<\/p>\n \u201cThe leadership is rallying around the idea of negotiating a deal with Trump, even if it only brings a few years of sanctions relief, in order to create breathing space for them to address these sources of domestic instability,\u201d Brew said. \u201cThey\u2019re also probably conscious of the fact that Trump is in a unique position to deliver this deal and that a successor in 2029 would not have the same flexibility that Trump is able to illustrate now. So they may sense an opportunity to get a deal here, even if it comes at the cost of conceding a little bit more than they may be comfortable with.\u201d<\/p>\n The latest Trump appointees confirmed by the Senate:<\/p>\n What should be high on your radar, if it isn\u2019t already.<\/em><\/p>\n U.S. general says keep troops in Europe.<\/strong> Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of U.S. troops in Europe and NATO\u2019s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, this week told House lawmakers that the United States should not reduce troop numbers in Europe.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s my advice to maintain that force posture as it is now,\u201d Cavoli said<\/a> during a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday.<\/p>\n This came amid reports<\/a> that the Trump administration is considering pulling up to 10,000 U.S. troops from Eastern Europe, despite the war in Ukraine<\/a> and ongoing concerns about Russian aggression in the region. Congressional lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have also expressed opposition to reducing the U.S. military\u2019s footprint in Europe.<\/p>\n Israel expands control of Gaza.<\/strong> Israel now controls more than 50 percent<\/a> of the Gaza Strip, as it expands its military operation in the territory after the collapse of a cease-fire last month\u2014in what could be a sign of plans for a long-term occupation.<\/p>\n The Israeli government is facing pressure from freed hostages, hostage families, and even current and former air force reservists to reach a new cease-fire deal with Hamas. But Netanyahu\u2019s government does not appear interested<\/a> in ending the war, and the Trump administration has largely continued to offer Israel full-throated support despite a campaign pledge to end the conflict.<\/p>\n That said, as Netanyahu visited the White House this week, Trump said he would like to see the war in Gaza stop. \u201cI think the war will stop at some point that won\u2019t be in the too distant future,\u201d Trump said, adding that \u201cwe\u2019re trying to get the hostages out\u201d but it\u2019s a \u201clong process.\u201d<\/p>\n Meta\u2019s China overtures.<\/strong> Congress is no stranger to hearings<\/a> about Meta and its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg<\/a>, but this week lawmakers in the Senate heard from a whistleblower about the tech giant\u2019s activities in China, including efforts to help the government censor content on Meta\u2019s platforms. In testimony<\/a> to the Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday, Sarah Wynn-Williams, a former director of global public policy at Facebook (now known as Meta), detailed the extent of its kowtowing to Beijing.<\/p>\n \u201cI saw Meta executives repeatedly undermine U.S. national security and betray American values,\u201d Wynn-Williams, whose new memoir, Careless People<\/a><\/em>, Meta has tried to quash<\/a>, said in her testimony. \u201cThey did these things in secret to win favor with Beijing and build an $18 billion business in China.\u201d<\/p>\n\n